Ken Hite's "State of the Industry 2004" and HERO

[buzz]

And in that spirit, let's drill down and focus on the RPG numbers. Usually, the top five spots in the Comics & Games Retailer list are reliable, in two senses: the companies occupying them don't shift around a lot, and the sales numbers are big enough that it's defensible to say that even the C&GR figures bear some relation to reality. If the RPG business is as shrunken as it might be, however, neither assumption is going to hold. Keep that in mind as we go forward. Unquestionably, however, the number one company in the market is Wizards of the Coast. One distributor quoted in ICv2 said that "Dungeons & Dragons sells four times World of Darkness and World of Darkness sells four times everything else." C&GR gives Wizards a slightly less commanding, but no less apparent, lead, with a little less than 43% of the core hobby RPG market, again roughly the same as last year. White Wolf likewise held a decisive second place, with strong sales for the reimagined Vampire and new World of Darkness core books driving a good second half of 2004. By C&GR numbers, the Wolf actually improved its standing, to 22% of the market in 2004.

Similarly, the revised GURPS 4th Edition books rode full-color hardbacks (and commensurate price increases) uphill to 5% and a bit of the RPG market in 2004; again, ICv2 concurs that Steve Jackson Games is Number Three with a (6d++ large piercing attack) bullet. C&GR lists AEG at fourth place with 4%, FanPro at fifth and Palladium in sixth with around 3.5% each. ICv2 forbears to give numbers, but lists the next three as Mongoose, Green Ronin, and Hero. If I had to guess, I'd say it's most likely Mongoose at fourth (call it 3.5% or 4% of the market) and the rest of the second tier (FanPro, Palladium, AEG, Hero, and Green Ronin) in a cloud of dust somewhere down there in shouting distance of 2%. Fantasy Flight and Kenzer and Eden may have 1% each at best; the rest are bouncing around down there among the drow and suchlike. Of all the Bottom Not Two, FanPro might take a jump up this year with Shadowrun 4th Edition in August, and I've learned not to count Kevin Siembieda out, but I think Steve will be able to hang onto third place in the RPG sector as Mongoose begins to spread its energies into card, board, and miniature games.

Guess there's something to be said for full-color hardbacks... ;)

Anyway, in this industry a solid 2% is pretty darn good, especially if it gets you in the Top 10.

[rowport]

...

I have nothing useful to add here, really. It's just that Buzz' post looked so lonely by itself. :winkgrin:

[shadowcat1313]

Full color covers are nice, but I am a classicist, I grew up on little black book traveller with its red and white on black, and that style still works
like Hero 5th edition does

[keithcurtis]

Guess there's something to be said for full-color hardbacks... ;)

Then print some.

Keith ";)" Curtis

[Celtic Cowboy]

If anything I think those numbers show HERO doing actually slightly better than I would have thought against some of the competition. I would have exptected to see Green Ronin well ahead of them just with the Mutants and Masterminds line alone - all anybody ever does is go ga-ga over the color books there, and while the line did well enough to expand it and have Green Ronin keep Steve Kenson around for a while, they didn't bury the HERO line according to those numbers. Which since I'm fond of them both is a good thing from my POV.

I would be curious too see how the numbers two years ago where, FREd fresh on the shelves and a few nice releases with it. GURPS having nothing fresh in core books for some time, number might have been different. Likewise the test will be to see if GURPS can keep that spot once the core book feeding frenzie has died down.

[buzz]

I would be curious too see how the numbers two years ago where, FREd fresh on the shelves and a few nice releases with it. GURPS having nothing fresh in core books for some time, number might have been different. Likewise the test will be to see if GURPS can keep that spot once the core book feeding frenzie has died down.
The previous year's column, iirc, showed HERO matching, if not exceeding by a fraction, GURPS' numbers.

[buzz]

Then print some.
I would willingly pay more for color HERO books, if printing them would be feasible for DOJ.

[buzz]

Full color covers are nice, but I am a classicist, I grew up on little black book traveller with its red and white on black, and that style still works
like Hero 5th edition does
See, even going two-color helps. :) Ars Magica 5th ed. was two-color, and it was freaking gorgeous.

For the record, I am not trying to make a case for color. Just wanted to post the numbers.

[Black Rose]

See, even going two-color helps. :) Ars Magica 5th ed. was two-color, and it was freaking gorgeous.

For the record, I am not trying to make a case for color. Just wanted to post the numbers.

OTOH, the two-color scheme worked well considering the woodcut-esque art that's in my copy. I'd really like to avoid the black and bright blue format of AD&D 2nd ed. I came up with 1st ed, and the small font and words-I-had-to-run-to-a-dictionary-for made it feel like I was doing something... special. Not for the common run, you know? The color change made it look like a crappy brochure.

IMO, of course.

[Jeff T.]

I would willingly pay more for color HERO books, if printing them would be feasible for DOJ.

I would be nice to see HERO just TRY one full-color hardback and see how it does.

[bobrunnicles]

Sorry, but I disagree - while the actual rules to GURPS 4th Ed are definitely better than 3rd, I actually find the books HARDER to read, especially in artificial light. In fact so far I find the GURPS rerelease kind of lacklustre; certainly they aren't keeping up with the promised schedule of books (one full colour hardback a month! they trumpeted initially).

HERO, you just keep on doing what you're doing :)

Oh, and how the heck are AEG and FanPro higher on that list? What does AEG have that is bigger than HERO? Are they riding on the World's Largest Dungeon? And FanPro, I thought all they did were the (to me, under the radar) latest versions of Battletech and Shadowrun. What am I missing?

Bob

[bobrunnicles]

I feel the same way about 5Er.

Well, with GURPS it's the shiny paper they used - I definitely don't have the same problem with 5ER.


You're missing the fact that they are d20 and so have a pre-existing fan-base of several hundred thousand.

Not in the case of FanPro, neither Battletech nor Shadowrun have been "d20'd". AEG's d20 output has gone down considerably recently like many other d20 companies now that people are being more picky about what they want - witness WW's cancellation of the Scarred Lands line. I just want to know what they are putting out that puts them ahead; like I said maybe with AEG it was the WLD. Maybe it was Stargate (I know I bought all the books they have out so far). But FanPro?

[Lightray]

AEG's d20 output has gone down considerably recently like many other d20 companies now that people are being more picky about what they want - witness WW's cancellation of the Scarred Lands line. I just want to know what they are putting out that puts them ahead; like I said maybe with AEG it was the WLD. Maybe it was Stargate (I know I bought all the books they have out so far).
AEG stopped their dual-stat L5R experiment, cancelled Swashbuckling Adventures and (I think) Shadowforce Archer. They're really not into d20 anymore from what I know. Is Hite including CCG sales in his figures?

[bblackmoor]

buzz... buzz... buzz...

Not much I can add to that, other than to say hindsight is 20/20. If only we had a time machine, and could go back to give Hero Games circa 2002 some advice... oh, well.

[bblackmoor]

I would be nice to see HERO just TRY one full-color hardback and see how it does.

If they'd just publish their core book on decent paper with a real cover, that would be a start.

[Egyptoid]

We all chipped in and bought a feather-duster for those traveller books.
(koff :nonp: koff)



Full color covers are nice, but I am a classicist, I grew up on little black book traveller with its red and white on black, and that style still works
like Hero 5th edition does

[Celtic Cowboy]

And FanPro, I thought all they did were the (to me, under the radar) latest versions of Battletech and Shadowrun. What am I missing?

Bob


Heroclix.
Mageknight.

I'm sure those make up a significant portion of FanPro's sales figures.

[Darren Watts]

Naah, he's talking RPGs only. I think you severely underestimate the size of Shadowrun. The Third Edition is in it's twelfth printing-Battletech and the English version of Schwarze Auge are also not insignificant. dw

[Celtic Cowboy]

Naah, he's talking RPGs only. I think you severely underestimate the size of Shadowrun. The Third Edition is in it's twelfth printing-Battletech and the English version of Schwarze Auge are also not insignificant. dw

Not sure about BTech or SA, but so little was released for Shadowrun in 2004 I'm suprised that reprints of books most rabid fans have had for years can generate that kind of numbers. Not that I mind, Srun is one of my favorite games to run (heck my Bug City campaign has been running a few years now, probably longer than the story was in the books, kinda like M*A*S*H and the Korean War) and it's good to see their numbers solid as well. Might even explain some of their hopes with their upcomming 4th edition, if their fanbase is that big a new line of core books could be the biggest thing they've done since FASA folded.

[bobrunnicles]

Heroclix.
Mageknight.

I'm sure those make up a significant portion of FanPro's sales figures.

Huh? Heroclix and Mageknight are produced by Wizkids - I don't think FanPro has anything to do with Clix whatsoever. The Battletech they do is the 'classic' version, not the Clicky one.

[bobrunnicles]

Naah, he's talking RPGs only. I think you severely underestimate the size of Shadowrun. The Third Edition is in it's twelfth printing-Battletech and the English version of Schwarze Auge are also not insignificant. dw

I thought the English version of Schwarze Auge flopped totally - they released the core book and what? One adventure? And that was years ago; now the line is completely dead AFAIK. Which is a real shame, as I worked in Germany for a while back in 2001 and the amount of material available for the game dwarfed even TSR's output back in it's heyday. I mean we are talking books, boxed sets, map packs - a seriously large amount of stuff.

I guess the Shadowrun reprint stuff really must be bigger than I am giving it credit for, but bigger than HERO? That surprises me.

[Celtic Cowboy]

Huh? Heroclix and Mageknight are produced by Wizkids - I don't think FanPro has anything to do with Clix whatsoever. The Battletech they do is the 'classic' version, not the Clicky one.

Wizkids own the Shadowrun license and outsource it to FanPro. Since the FanPro site also lists the "clix" as their games it could well be that FanPro is an umbrella company of Wizkids itself.

[DreadDomain]

Battletech and the English version of Schwarze Auge are also not insignificant. dw

The Dark Eye? I thought this game went basically unoticed. There is no way TDE sold more than <insert Hero book here>. Right?

Dread "who has no hard numbers to back his impression" Domain