Ryan Dancey: 2007 Predictions

[SCUBA Hero]

In light of Steve's weekly update on the state of the game industry, see linky (http://web.mac.com/rsdancey/iWeb/RSDanceyBlog/Blog/C44E7E19-26A7-4C05-89B8-15803410A740.html)

[BigJackBrass]

Not exactly a barrel of laughs, is he?

My one beef with predictions of this sort is the general lack of suggestions as how to avoid or rectify the situation. At least people like Sean Patrick Fannon are trying to find solutions to the perceived crisis ( http://seanpatfannon.livejournal.com/191115.html?view=1006987#t1006987 )

[TheQuestionMan]

I am so confused??? Sales are up. Profits are down. Costs are up. Stores are down. WTF!!!



RULE NUMBER ONE... Create a community, maintain a community. Hero Games does this like no one else. I can not tell you how much it means to have actual input and contact with the people at DoJ.

QM

[SAVeira]

Honestly, I have heard what all the things he is going on about before and it never came to be happened. His predictions seem to be the product of someone on a major down.

The truth is that the gaming industry, at least with concern with D&D and D20 is slowing down with coming of 4th Edition D&D. However, the samething happened with 3.5E D&D.

[Greg]

The weird thing I see here and I've seen other people mention is the migration to digital books and online gaming. Is something going to happen to all my friends in the next couple of years? Are they going to stop liking me? What have I done wrong?....*sob* don't leave!

Seriously, most all of us have kids and if I had to guess they'll probably end up playing some sort of RPG as they get older. It might be HERO 8.0 "STeVE" or D&D 12.7, but the concept of sitting around a table and making up stories is pretty easy to grasp. Maybe people will be using computer dice rollers and store their PCs on web tablets, but I don't see why the face-to-face would stop. When I was younger most of my characters were based off books, but even then I had a friend who played a whip-wielding Simon Belmont (over 16 years ago!). Nowadays its even more common to like fantasy/sci-fi because of mainstream movies and video games. During its original run did Star Trek, shown on a major network, get the love that BSG seems to get running on extended cable?

[Michael Hopcroft]

Q: "How do you make a small fortune in publishing?"
A: "Start with a large fortune...."

Nobody may be getting rich on RPGs -- very few people ever really did -- but there will always be people who are comfortable serving a niche market (which is what the hobby game market is when you come right down to it).

[Zindil]

Not exactly a barrel of laughs, is he?

My one beef with predictions of this sort is the general lack of suggestions as how to avoid or rectify the situation. At least people like Sean Patrick Fannon are trying to find solutions to the perceived crisis ( http://seanpatfannon.livejournal.com/191115.html?view=1006987#t1006987 )


Sean Patrick Fannon's article has some great ideas for gaming companies in it. I would love to see Hero come out with a book that gives snippets of events from different fans' campaigns and had their pc's in there. Sign me up for that if there is ever one for Turakian Age.

[SCUBA Hero]

RULE NUMBER ONE... Create a community, maintain a community. Hero Games does this like no one else.Good insight!

I think Palladium does a good job of this as well.

[Blue]

I hope somebody is archiving this. I'll be curious to see at year's end.

And if he's accurate, Ill ask him who's going to win next year's superbowl :D

[Greg]

Good insight!

I think Palladium does a good job of this as well.

I definitely agree with this. I actually think WotC does a pretty good job too. They have many rabid fans who've never even looked at other RPGs. I think in both cases the respective companies were player's first games which makes a pretty big impact.

[Vondy]

What he doesn't address is changing publishing realities. He seems to think print-retailers are the measure of the industry and game company's market success. He completely ignores the dynamic shift in industry trends to more viable economic approaches. While print publishing will continue to be profitable for large publishing houses and major book-chains (though online reality has forced them to reevaluate their marketing and has given a lot of power back to readership - which is good for authors), its not viable for small press and cottage industries.

And gaming is a cottage industry. For those industries online publishing, print on demand, and selling actual hard-copies online are a more viable economic approach than retailers. This also has a positive effect for consumers. Those trends have actually opened up a venue for the small guy with a good idea to carve out his niche. We're in the 21st century and times are a-chainging. Adapt or die. He seems to be among those who prefer to stand on a street corner with a placard portending doom while screaming at passers-by that the end is near instead of adapting and seizing tomorrow.

The last thing we want is Hasbro's concept of dynamism and Ryan Dancy's sickly notions of what's good for the market, or where it is headed. He's spent too long being coddled at WoTC. If his prophecies and portents of doom were true we never would have seen a lot of great games and settings that have managed to break into the gaming world's consciousness using alternative publishing methods provided by technology in the past several years. The world is a changing, folks. And hasbro is dinosaur.

[zornwil]

Sean Patrick Fannon's article has some great ideas for gaming companies in it. I would love to see Hero come out with a book that gives snippets of events from different fans' campaigns and had their pc's in there. Sign me up for that if there is ever one for Turakian Age.
There's increasing talk that "creator is king" is only active where a population that is celebrity-focused exists. In the publishing world, the notion of star authors that are followed, at least in some commentaries I've read, seems to be dying, that while of course a core of readers always develops for an author, in general people are more than ever saying "but what have you done today?" and judging works on individual merit. Personally I tend to be this way, and have found in general in RPGs that an author's success with one RPG doesn't translate to another. So I really wonder how much continuing to build a cult of personality, so to speak, around authors in the RPG space works. We see that the cult of rock stars is fading, beyond fueling the National Enquirer world, as a market reality, and I think those of us in our 40s are not reacting to the changing world, we are stuck in the past. Basically, increasingly, great directors and great musicians aren't driving sales like they used to. The world has moved its focus on celebrity-as-attaction to the sports world, largely.

But Sean's commentary is largely correct, anyway, and he's certainly correct about the reaching-out possibilities.

In general, his commentary, to me, begs to live the reality that it's a niche industry and to be sure to live it out as such, not to try to make it something bigger than it is, as the "majors" are trying to sustain.

Anyway, much of it is hard to relate to. I just don't care about any of my characters being in books. It's a kick of having my online monicker in a prominent place in the CU but that's not a character I created or anything, though of course now I've had some desire to do a Zornwil article or such, but not enough to actually do it.

And I think there's a huge point missed - a huge portion of the RPG population just doesn't spend money. I can spend money now, so I do. But when I played RPGs heavily I spent virtually nothing on them, and of my (very low) disposal income, almost none of my entertainment dollars went to RPG publications, because all you need is one system book that you've read well enough to figure out a way to run a game on your own. Now, with the web and with amateur games around, if I were in the same position that "almost none" would be "none." It's a serious, inherent problem, one too much ignored by the industry.

Of course, "the industry" also should remember something that the giants of (generic) industry are only really seriously hitting their stride with now, and that's focusing on those small number of consumers who spend the most dollars.

Anyway, still, in general, Sean's advice is great and a needed focus. I really appreciate you sharing the link.