Quantifying Interstellar Empires

[Nyrath]

If you are creating a "future history generator" program, or something like that, you will need ways of quantifying the various factors.


For nations, the state of the citizens's well-being can be measured by the Human Development Index (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index). This factors in life expectancy, literacy, education, and standard of living into one number. Among other things it can indicate whether a country is a developed, developing, or underdeveloped country

The economic Misery index (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misery_index) is found by adding the unemployment rate to the inflation rate. This tends to predict the relative crime rate of one year in the future.

And the Gini coefficient (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient) is a measure of inequality of a distribution of income. If the difference in income between the rich and the poor becomes too absurdly large, the society becomes increasingly unstable. Historians often point to a large Gini coefficient and the disappearance of the middle class as two of the warning signs of the downfall of the Roman empire.

[Lawnmower Boy]

However, some historians think that there is virtually no data with which to measure relative income levels in Late Antiquity.
Those (really) interested may want to look up Chris Wickham's recent _Framing the Early Middle Ages_.
Two things recommend it to me. First, while a dry, dry, dry read, it deliberately resists drawing clear conclusions. There's far too much speculation out there, backed by far too few facts, and far too many books that need to carry a "Danger: obsolescent" sticker on them. Edward Luttwak, I'm a-looking at _you._
Wickham's use of cutting-edge theory and great wallops of archaeology points to Roman Empire suffering a top-down political collapse. Wickham's theories are not incontestable. A recent issue of _Antiquity_ has a much more accessible review essay that critiques some of his test cases, but his overall framework (that the withdrawal of the taxing state provoked the social "simplification" that we see as Dark Ages) seems convincing even to non-Marxists like, well, most of us.

[Nyrath]

Yes, historians are still fiercely debating the fall of the Roman empire, and I personally would not presume to add to it. I was always pretty terrible at History in college.

However, people who are trying to make a Star Hero campaign about interstellar empires can use discredited historical sources yet still make a powerful background.

Discredited or not, I do find that the dreaded Edward Luttwak has some campaign ideas worth stealing.

You can read some of them online here:
http://tinyurl.com/yqa4zn

[Lawnmower Boy]

You're perfectly right. They all make cool campaign backgrounds. I was just getting professionally shirty, is all.
Chris Wickham is a good example of why good campaign backgrounds don't match to good history. If there's one conclusion to be drawn, he says, it is that everything was incredibly boring and anticlimactic. Lead in the waterpipes is much more fun.