What's the weather going to be like tomorrow?

[SirViss]

Hello everyone,

I have a character in a game that I am running that will have the capacity to predict the Weather. So I suggested the Weather Eye power (USPD p.253). Basically Precog Clairsentience for weather only. It has the limitation Time Modifiers (-½), so I looked up what it meant. It says that the Power needs RSR limitation (no prob), and that the skill roll will be modified by -2 for every step on the Time Chart from the present.

Ah, that would mean that to know what the weather will be like the next day would be at -18. Heck, the Skill is at -8 at 1 minute in the future!

I was wondering how you guys would handle Weather Prediction?

[Old Man]

I would start by taking off or buying down the Time Modifiers lim. Precog Clair is expensive enough already.

[SirViss]

Well, I thought of that, but neither I nor the player want the character to know what the weather is like 100 years in the future... :D

At what level would you guys put the limitation (Only precise to 2 days in the future)?

[pinecone]

Ummm...Extra time 24 hours..."Why yes! it is raining right now!" How much do penalty skill levels cost? grab about 10 and the future is so bright you'll hafta wear shades....

[OddHat]

This sounds like a Steve question. That said, how about dropping the time chart limit in favor of "vague and unclear," with a GM ruling that the further into the future he tries to estimate the weather, the less certain he becomes?

[Farkling]

<shrugs> Detect Weather with Discriminatory and Analyze, plus SC or KS: Meteorology? Now he's just guessing intstead of knowing...but he has better information than anyone else :)

We cheated. Jake the Rain God had a Megascaled Change Environment. He was ALWAYS right about the weather within the city limits....

[Chris Goodwin]

Originally posted by SirViss
Hello everyone,
Ah, that would mean that to know what the weather will be like the next day would be at -18. Heck, the Skill is at -8 at 1 minute in the future!


???????????

One minute would be -4, and one day would be -14. Assuming the "base time" is one Phase. You might work with the GM (or, if you're the GM, just decide) that the "base time" for Precognition is different, like, f'rinstance, one hour (heck, most people can watch the Weather Channel, go outside, and have a pretty good chance of guessing what the weather is going to be like in an hour).

[SirViss]

Archer: Your probably right. I think did miscount. Still, I wanted to see what suggestion popped up when I asked the board.

I am the GM, but this is the first time I am GMing Hero (and 2nd time GMing anything). I have a few ideas of my own, but I wanted to see if I wasn't missing any ovious ones. The Detect idea I thought of and so did arbitrarilly changing the idea of "present time" for the limitation. It's nice to known that other people think of the same things you do... ;)

Keep the ideas coming. I think I know which I will suggest to the player. I might just show him this board and discuss with him then...

Thanks for all the good ideas!

[Snarf]

I'm letting my players take extra time to reduce the time modifier penalty. For instance, if they take an hour to do their prediction, they get a +5.

[Hugh Neilson]

Originally posted by Snarf
I'm letting my players take extra time to reduce the time modifier penalty. For instance, if they take an hour to do their prediction, they get a +5.

Not to mention a +12 for seeing into the next phase since it's now an hour closer :D

Seriously, this limitation seems to restrict the character unduly for the limitation value. If a character wants solely to see the future, he pays 40 AP, applies -1 (precog only), -1/2 (RSR; skill woll is -4 as power is 40 AP) to get to 16 points. This added limitation saves a whopping 3 points!

Assuming a skill roll of 15- to begin with (to get even odds the power will work), he's actually down a point if he raises it to 17- to have a 50/50 chance of seeing into the next phase.

Maybe "time limit" should assume a base time of 1 day (or less) for an unmodified roll, -2 for anything within 5 days, and so on. Or maybe the player should just define his precognition as having a fixed time limit, or becoming vague after a certain period. Going from no modifer at all to -8 to see tomorrow seems like a hefty limit for a 3 point modifier.

Hmmm...If I buy Clairsentience for sight, hearing, touch and smell/taste (just like being there...) with RSR, I pay 33 (50 AP/1.5). If I add Precog and time limits, does that make it (70/2 =) 35 points, or (33 + 20/2) = 43 points? In other words, do I apply the limit only to the precog points, since it does not limit the clairsentience? [Mind you, is precog with that level of penalty even worth 2 points?]

[JMHammer]

My staff mets write weather forecasts every six hours. They require about an hour of preparation before producing the written document (which then becomes part of a web page / data feed and a broadcast script). The forecasts they produce are essentially flawless out to 6 hours, nearly so out to 24, and then accuracy and precision drops off until we get out 3 days, after which it becomes more of an educated guess than a forecast.

But they're pretty darn good at it and as far as I'm aware no psychic abilities are involved. They do have a lot of training and some great equipment at their disposal, of course.

Some sort of psionic weather prediction power based on a type of precognition shouldn't be very expensive and it should be pretty accurate, especially compared to "normal" precognition. The weather is difficult to predict, but it isn't subject to significant short-term variation (say, less than one month) due to normal human interference.

John H

[SirViss]

Well, if it is TRUE precog applied to the weather, then it should be a little expensive, since it will perceive weather changes that wouldn't be detectable by other means.

What I mean by that, is if some other sentient (read super-villain or hero) force applies some changes on the weather he might be able to detect it.

"And the weather tomorrow will be... SNOW?!? Someone will be tampering with the weather! Better keep my costume undies..."

I would make the assumption that the character would not be able to sense his own changes to future weather, or else he would have a great way to send himself warnings in the past... :D

[Tom Carman]

Originally posted by Hugh Neilson
Not to mention a +12 for seeing into the next phase since it's now an hour closer :D

Seriously, this limitation seems to restrict the character unduly for the limitation value. If a character wants solely to see the future, he pays 40 AP, applies -1 (precog only), -1/2 (RSR; skill woll is -4 as power is 40 AP) to get to 16 points. This added limitation saves a whopping 3 points!

Assuming a skill roll of 15- to begin with (to get even odds the power will work), he's actually down a point if he raises it to 17- to have a 50/50 chance of seeing into the next phase.

Maybe "time limit" should assume a base time of 1 day (or less) for an unmodified roll, -2 for anything within 5 days, and so on. Or maybe the player should just define his precognition as having a fixed time limit, or becoming vague after a certain period. Going from no modifer at all to -8 to see tomorrow seems like a hefty limit for a 3 point modifier.

Hmmm...If I buy Clairsentience for sight, hearing, touch and smell/taste (just like being there...) with RSR, I pay 33 (50 AP/1.5). If I add Precog and time limits, does that make it (70/2 =) 35 points, or (33 + 20/2) = 43 points? In other words, do I apply the limit only to the precog points, since it does not limit the clairsentience? [Mind you, is precog with that level of penalty even worth 2 points?]
A lot can depend on exactly how precise a weather forecast you want. I mean, if you want to know the precise temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed and direction, etc. in a specific hex at some point in the future, then sure it can get hard to predict. On the other hand, determining the general conditions in a mega-scaled hex should be worth a considerable (+4 or better) bonus for being an "easy task".

[Hugh Neilson]

Originally posted by Tom Carman
A lot can depend on exactly how precise a weather forecast you want. I mean, if you want to know the precise temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed and direction, etc. in a specific hex at some point in the future, then sure it can get hard to predict. On the other hand, determining the general conditions in a mega-scaled hex should be worth a considerable (+4 or better) bonus for being an "easy task".

??NOT FOLLOWING?? The limitation described imposed penalties only on the temporal distance (how far in the future). Locations were not at issue from what I read.

[Farkling]

Tony has a completely valid point. Making your PER roll for the exact numbers in the city should be HARD, but it IS a PER roll, so to check the weather over the CITY should get HUGE modifier for "size of target" should it not? Let's see, a 256-HEx object (a large building perhaps?) has a +18 modifier all by itself. A system reflecting that nature has the "inherently vague" built into it for the tiny specifics, and more accuracy for the larger area... How's that for a solution?

Does FREd imply anywhere in writing that PER rolls for precognition takes penalties for the TEMPORAL distance? Admittedly, it should be more difficult to look "farther" into the past or the future, but does FREd consider that? I can't find it in the FAQ. anywhere.

***EDIT:: The time penalties are imposed by a Limitation !! Just take the limitation off! It can't be saving enough points to be worth the headaches. (Or reduce the limitation to (-1/4) and have the modfier at -1 per step). Have him put the (-1) on for Precog only, unless the character can read the weather patterns backwards (into the past) also. ***

EDIT:: THIS PARAGRAPH IS NOW IRRELEVANT, BUT PRESERVED FOR POSTERITY
***From my experiences with temporal powers, I would recommend applying EITHER the PER rolls as Tony implied (mentioned above), OR I would recomment applying temporal modifiers. Temporal modifiers would be penalized for distance to the future, and bonused for the amount of time scanned. Braced/Set should be allowed also...it IS a PER roll.
Heck, this is Hero, you could apply both sets of modifiers, Hero gamers like accuracy (math).***

I would actually ask the character to buy a "Weather Sense" also, even if ONLY for use with the Precog. The Detect Weather would give intimate knowledge about the weather. Clairsentience without a weather sense attached is only going to tell Jake the Rain God what his eyes (ears?) see or hear. The Discriminatory, Analyze Weather Sense, IMHO, on a good PER roll will include all the little things he wants to know. Average Temperature, Humidity, WInd Speed, yadda yadda yadda. Shortening the time he needs to observe the future. And anyone who can accurately predict the weather should have good knowledge of the weather immediately surrounding them.

[GamePhil]

Weather Eye actually appears to be illegal. The Limitation you refer to requires that the Power "have a Required Skill Roll", but Weather Eye has none :)

That said, I also recommend that you remove it. Me, I'm off to check the Errata.

Nope, not there. Ah, well, nobody's perfect.

[Hugh Neilson]

Originally posted by Farkling
I would actually ask the character to buy a "Weather Sense" also, even if ONLY for use with the Precog. The Detect Weather would give intimate knowledge about the weather. Clairsentience without a weather sense attached is only going to tell Jake the Rain God what his eyes (ears?) see or hear. The Discriminatory, Analyze Weather Sense, IMHO, on a good PER roll will include all the little things he wants to know. Average Temperature, Humidity, WInd Speed, yadda yadda yadda. Shortening the time he needs to observe the future. And anyone who can accurately predict the weather should have good knowledge of the weather immediately surrounding them.

Actually, why not trash the whole "precog" thing and give the character "Detect weather patterns, Discriminatory; Analyze". for 15 points (weather patterns as a class of things). The better his PER roll, the more accurate and longer term his forecasts are.

[GamePhil]

Originally posted by Hugh Neilson
Actually, why not trash the whole "precog" thing and give the character "Detect weather patterns, Discriminatory; Analyze". for 15 points (weather patterns as a class of things). The better his PER roll, the more accurate and longer term his forecasts are.

Well, it's another 5 points over Weather Eye for what is already an effect of questionable utility. Can't think of anything that would stop someone otherwise.

[Farkling]

That is what I had in mind back in the beginning...
Guess I got caught up in the discussion. :)

[GamePhil]

Originally posted by Hugh Neilson
"Detect weather patterns, Discriminatory; Analyze". for 15 points

I'd throw out Analyze and make the base cost the minimum (has little effect on combat), which brings the cost down to 8. You don't need to know the most likely spots for each lightning strike, generally.

I'd probably allow the ability to just be Detect Weather Changes for 3 points, in fact: it doesn't seem more useful to me than Perfect Pitch or Absolute Time Sense.

Weather Eye does have the advantage (small "a") Power Framework placement, though.

[SirViss]

Well guys, the player and I have settled for a Detec. But to make it really CHEAP I handwaved the restriction where it has to cost end to be in an EC. It's nice to be the GM...

I am making it a 3 point detect. The applicability in combat is (virtually) nil., but I am including Analyze. I had to get the points up for the EC...

Anyway, i will still be still coming here to get ideas, so keep the suggestions coming!

[Hugh Neilson]

Originally posted by GamePhil
Well, it's another 5 points over Weather Eye for what is already an effect of questionable utility. Can't think of anything that would stop someone otherwise.

Haven't looked at Weathereye, so there you go. Does it cost 10 points plus the skill? How much do you need to spend on the skill to predict the weather with any reliability (I'd go look, but the book's about 10' away and I'm lazy).;)

At least this one would work beyond the next turn or so with some reliabilityI'm inclined to agree that 3 points would make it comparable with pther "not exceptionally useful" detects.