Fermi Paradox Article -- Only 10 ET Civilizations ?

[clsage]

A possible campaign seed/plot thread idea:

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/23832/

-Carl-

[DrTemp]

The conclusion of "only 10 Civilizations" derives from the probes leaving behind traces of their existence that last 100 million years. If they assume a lifetime of 1 million years, it becomes more than a 1000 civilizations...

If a probe has ever reached Earth at all, it did certainly not last even one percent of that time... so we can assume that there are a lot more than 10 civilizations out there.

[Nyrath]

"You must spread around reputation before giving to clsage again..."

[CourtFool]

I found the comments even more interesting that the original article.

[Kristopher]

Of course, it rests on the presumption that all civilizations will explore, using automated probes, and so on.

[steamteck]

Interesting but seems to be flawed and arrogant to me.

[Nyrath]

Of course, it rests on the presumption that all civilizations will explore, using automated probes, and so on.
Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but the main point is it only takes one exploring civilization to mess things up.

Just like with the original Fermi paradox. You'd have to say that every single civilization since the dawn of time had no interest in colonization. Because all it takes is one to colonize the entire freaking galaxy in a fraction of a galactic year.

[Cancer]

I give the Drake Equation exercise to my students every time I teach 101. Most folks seem to be pessimists now (that is, the last 5 years or so); there's a bunch of kids who end up getting numbers that imply we're the first radio-using civilization in the Galaxy.

I don't pretend any rigor to that, since lots of students just cram in numbers from whatever site they find. It's just that when I was giving the same assignment back in the mid-1990s, it was rare to have a student arrive at a number in that "we're the first" regime.