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DC Movies- if at first you don't succeed...


Cassandra

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15 hours ago, st barbara said:

Well I don't know about any "formula"...

 

Date someone who works in the financial department of a major movie studio and you'll learn about these formulas. If that's not feasible, then either do some research on this or just take my word for it. :yes:

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41 minutes ago, bigdamnhero said:

<snip>

 

so I don't know how many more people might've gone if they'd known Supes was in it, let alone whether or not he was "the real Supes."

 

To me, the trailer just screamed more of the same Suicide-Squad-meets-300.

 

<snip>

 

Better put and hits the nail on the head. 

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On 06/12/2017 at 11:57 PM, Bazza said:

Well I guess Cassandra was mostly right. But did anyone listen? Nooooo. 

What do you mean mostly right ?

 

On 07/12/2017 at 8:34 PM, bigdamnhero said:

Per Wikipedia:

The Cassandra metaphor (variously labelled the Cassandra 'syndrome', 'complex', 'phenomenon', 'predicament', 'dilemma', or 'curse') occurs when valid warnings or concerns are dismissed or disbelieved.

So take your pick I guess. :)

This means whatever we post if Cassandra disagrees with it or has already posted a conflicting theory then we are wrong. And it would ease matters completely if we just agreed with her to begin with.

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1 hour ago, st barbara said:

Why don't you explain this formula for us ?

 

Most films in the US require around 55% of the ticket price in rental fees for the first several weeks that a movie is in theaters (the other 45% is for the theater to pay for overhead in exhibiting the film), with a reduction in the fee for exhibition after some period (usually 2 to 4 weeks). Tentpole movies generally require 60% in rental fees for the first several weeks, due to expected demand and the larger cost of making and marketing the movie. Overseas markets are generally at about 40% for exhibition fees, but this can be much lower in some countries. That means that the domestic grosses count more towards paying off the cost of the film, and why big numbers in the beginning are better for the movie company.

 

Now, there is another type of distribution, called four-walling, where the distributor rents out the theater and takes all of the receipts, but it is extremely uncommon now. Back in the 1970s, my Mom used to work for some small distributors who used this method to show their films. Mom would take all of the money from ticket sales, and deposit it. She'd then have the bank cut a cashier's check to be sent to the distributor. The linked Wikipedia article mentions Shick Sunn Classic Pictures, which was one of the distributors that she'd work for.

 

Here's a bit of the hidden math in relation to the release of the next Star Wars film:

 

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/11/disney-makes-a-bigger-ask-of-theaters-than-ever-before-with-the-last-jedi/

 

WSJ reports Disney has crafted agreements through which it will receive roughly 65 percent of ticket sales, "a new benchmark for a Hollywood studio" according to the report. (Average splits range from 40 percent abroad to 55 percent on average in the US to 60 percent for only the largest hits, WSJ writes.) And anonymous theater owners told the paper that Disney's list of requirements for carrying The Last Jedi are the "most onerous they’ve ever seen."

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6 hours ago, death tribble said:

What do you mean mostly right ?

 

General consensus is that the films usually referred to DCEU has not lived up to DC's WB's expectations. All but Wonder Woman have been critically disfavourable. However, even these films have had a decent box office and been rated favourably by fans. 

 

As noted by others, Justice League was hoped to have Avengers level success (each Avengers film as grossed over $1 billion). 

 

In the original post to this thread, dated by me January 20, 2016, Cassandra predicted "The Coming Epic Failure of the DC Movie Universe" due to the switch of setting in the Wonder Woman from WW2 to WW1. 

 

As Wonder Woman is an unqualified bona fide success for the DCEU...Cassandra was mostly right. Cassandra was right about the underperforming / underwhelming overall performance DCEU, compared to rival Marvel Studios, but wrong with her predicted doom for the Wonder Woman film. 

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I'd put Justice League as better than a number of Marvel movies. Liked it better than: Thor 1, Thor 2, Iron Man 2, Iron Man 3, Incredible Hulk, and Avengers 2. Wasn't as good imo as GOTG, GOTG 2, any of the Captain America movies, Avengers 1, Iron Man 1. 

 

So that'd be very bad, given this is their flagship property and all. But wasn't a terrible movie. Just wasn't a great one. 

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4 hours ago, st barbara said:

Why don't you explain this formula for us ?

 

I wish I could explain it in detail. Unfortunately, I was privvy to neither the spreadsheets nor the formulas embedded in them over at Dreamworks. However, there are formulas that studios (and the banks that backstop their productions through things like completion bonds) use to predict the income a movie will generate over approximately a 5-year period, and it is almost entirely based on opening weekend box office returns. Not first-run box office performance, opening weekend performance. Historically it has predicted the amount of money a film can expect to make to within about a 3-5% margin of error, which is why I used the word uncanny before. The consistency of its predictive power is something that boggles my mind and almost makes me believe in magic.

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52 minutes ago, zslane said:

Historically it has predicted the amount of money a film can expect to make to within about a 3-5% margin of error, which is why I used the word uncanny before. The consistency of its predictive power is something that boggles my mind and almost makes me believe in magic.

 

A heuristic based on a relatively large sample of data. They're usually pretty accurate.

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4 hours ago, Iuz the Evil said:

I'd put Justice League as better than a number of Marvel movies. Liked it better than: Thor 1, Thor 2, Iron Man 2, Iron Man 3, Incredible Hulk, and Avengers 2. Wasn't as good imo as GOTG, GOTG 2, any of the Captain America movies, Avengers 1, Iron Man 1. 

 

So that'd be very bad, given this is their flagship property and all. But wasn't a terrible movie. Just wasn't a great one. 

I am in the same boat except that I prefered JL over GotG 1 and 2. I haven't seen Thor Ragnarok so I couldn't say but I also prefered JL over Spider-Man Homecoming and Ant-Man (both fairly bland).

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22 hours ago, death tribble said:

What do you mean mostly right ?

 

This means whatever we post if Cassandra disagrees with it or has already posted a conflicting theory then we are wrong. And it would ease matters completely if we just agreed with her to begin with.

 

Thank you.

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