MLB 2021

[slikmar]

I am routing hard right now for the Orioles (this will probably change over the weekend), Blue Jays and Mariners. This is because I would love to see MLB suffer through another season of the Yankees and Boston NOT in the playoffs.

[unclevlad]

43 minutes ago, slikmar said:

I am routing hard right now for the Orioles (this will probably change over the weekend), Blue Jays and Mariners. This is because I would love to see MLB suffer through another season of the Yankees and Boston NOT in the playoffs.

 

Then have the Cards knock out the Dodgers?  Kill ALL the mega-market teams?  Heh.

 

A talking head on one of the shows this afternoon was rooting for PURE CHAOS.  A 4-way tie...Yankees, Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners is possible.  If the Jays hold on...they're up 4 in the 5th right now...the Yankees will have 68 losses;  Sox have 69, Mariners and Blue Jays at 70.  Yankees have another vs the Jays tomorrow;  if the Jays take that one as well, everyone's within a single loss.  And that's the last head-to-head matchup between them, so...ok, the 4-way tie requires quite a few things but it's not out of the question.

 

And this'd be the 4 way tie for BOTH WC spots.  It could be done with A vs. B, C vs. D, the winners make the playoffs directly, and normal tie breaker procedures apply.  (I believe this is one of the scenarios where MLB does use tiebreakers.)  That wouldn't be toooo bad.

 

Or maybe just go for the maximum mess and have it be a 3 way tie for both spots.  That has no neat, clean solution unless some tiebreakers can be used to put a team in...or keep one specific team out.  And I don't think MLB uses them here.  Personally, I really dislike tiebreaker games involving the wild card because it's too disruptive when the next thing for winner will be...another elimination game.  UGH.  And kills off days.  When there was only 1 wild card, then a play-in game for that spot set you up for a series, at least.

 

National League is less interesting;  Atlanta is ahead early against Philly, and if they win it, they're dormie.  Dodgers and Giants is the only theater now.  The slots are cast in concrete...Brewers #2, Braves #3, Cards travel to the West Coast for the WC game...then if it's the home team, we get Dodgers vs. Giants, the 2 best records, in the divisional round.  Not particularly equitable but that's how the playoff seeding works. 

 

The Cards' run is simply amazing.  Flip side...the Padres were 72-62 on August 31st;  they've gone 6-17 since, including 1-9 in their last 10.  Game broadcasters last night opined that quite a few changes would likely be coming for them.  

 

And of course, the true drama is for the #1 draft pick.  D'backs are back in the lead with 107 losses, but it's still neck and neck with the Orioles at 106.  And a secondary angle:  will we have 4 100-loss teams???  Rangers have 99...likely.  Pirates have 98 with 5 left so...probably.  

[BNakagawa]

The Giants won their 104th game of 2021, setting a franchise record for the SFGiants era and they still haven't clinched the division yet.

[unclevlad]

13 hours ago, BNakagawa said:

The Giants won their 104th game of 2021, setting a franchise record for the SFGiants era and they still haven't clinched the division yet.

 

Along those lines, the Dodgers are likely to set the record for most games won by a team that did NOT win its division/league...and that includes the pre-expansion period with only the pennant winner advancing.  The 1909 Cubs and 1942 Dodgers won 104.  In the divisional era, the record is actually the aforementioned Giants team...103 wins and did not win the division.  The Braves did...yes, back when realignment hadn't happened, and the Braves were in the West.  After pulling the rabbit out of their hat...4 HRs in the 8th...the Dodgers are at 102 wins with 4 left.

 

Curious stat brought up in the Cards/Brewers game.  Tommy Edman leads MLB switch hitters, and is 6th in the NL among all hitters, at 165 hits.  So, just checking...no one will reach 200 unless Trea Turner goes bonkers.  He leads with 188 hits, but with only 4 games left?  Not gonna happen.  No one reaching 200 hits...not counting last year, or the strike year of '94...happened in 2018 and 2013, but the prior year would be 1995.  That said, overall batting average recovered for the most part after the early season doldrums.

[BNakagawa]

another statistical anomaly of 2021. The Mets spent 103 days in first place in the NL East and are going to miss the playoffs and end up with a losing record.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2021-mets-make-wrong-kind-of-history-by-clinching-losing-season/

[Pariah]

Mets gonna Met.

[unclevlad]

But also note that they were, as the story points out, leading the division at 60-56.  Translation:  has to be something in the water, as whatever got into the NFL East hit the NL East.  Cuz I suspect that was one of the all-time worst winning percentages to be leading a division 100+ games into the season.  

 

And they've had to put a LOT of pitchers on the IL, and therefore use a HUGE number.  Baseball Reference shows they've used 42 different pitchers.  They have one of the worst...probably overall THE worst...hitting clubs in the NL.  They won most of deGrom's games, and his ability to supply length helped to avoid overwork.  But as the injuries piled up and they had to use so many warm bodies...with their pathetic offense, any uptick in runs allowed translates quite rapidly into losses.

 

And yes, Mets gonna Met.  Wet mess of a franchise.  They still seem largely rudderless...of course, with musical chairs at the top, stability is something of a pipe dream.

[slikmar]

Today looked like such a potentially good day for so long:

for personal: Angels led 5-0 at one point (lost 7-6, thanks again to our AA pitching staff (due to injury(pretty sure we could give the stats on the mets up there a run for its money) and bad pitching))

Baltimore beat the Red Sox

Mariners didn't play but now tied Sox due to the above.

So all we needed was the Cy Young favorite to pitch up to standards aaaannnnddd gave up 4 hits all HRs. This is the third Cy Young hopeful apparently in last week or so to clunk - Scherzer has had 2 horrid starts for Dodgers and I Cole got torched by Toronto yesterday, in the game everyone was pretty sure was the only one the Yankees had the advantage in.

We were so close to having 1 game seperate 4 teams for the wildcard, with 3 of them tied and 1 game behind Yankees. Now they go play TB, who normally has their number, but having clinched home field advantage will probably be setting up for the playoffs, but I guess I can still dream of a playoffs without the MLB teacher's pets.

 

[unclevlad]

If we could vote, then I'd vote the Red Sox off the island.

 

Losing 2 out of 3 to tied for worst team in baseball?  At this stage?  Unforgivable.

 

Still possible there'll be a 3 way tie, but I hope the Nats sweep the Sox.  Just because.

[Cancer]

There is voting, but it's done behind the scenes by the networks.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

I haven't been watching much this season. I was thrilled to check the standings this morning and see that my Rays have run away with their division! That's awesome! In fact, they're best in their league! After that heartbreaking performance by the Jags, this feels good. 

[unclevlad]

On 9/30/2021 at 9:18 PM, slikmar said:

Today looked like such a potentially good day for so long:

for personal: Angels led 5-0 at one point (lost 7-6, thanks again to our AA pitching staff (due to injury(pretty sure we could give the stats on the mets up there a run for its money) and bad pitching))

Baltimore beat the Red Sox

Mariners didn't play but now tied Sox due to the above.

So all we needed was the Cy Young favorite to pitch up to standards aaaannnnddd gave up 4 hits all HRs. This is the third Cy Young hopeful apparently in last week or so to clunk - Scherzer has had 2 horrid starts for Dodgers and I Cole got torched by Toronto yesterday, in the game everyone was pretty sure was the only one the Yankees had the advantage in.

We were so close to having 1 game seperate 4 teams for the wildcard, with 3 of them tied and 1 game behind Yankees. Now they go play TB, who normally has their number, but having clinched home field advantage will probably be setting up for the playoffs, but I guess I can still dream of a playoffs without the MLB teacher's pets.

 

 

But it's not over.  Rays shashed the Yanks...Brandon Lowe led off the scoring for TB with 2 3-run homers, and the Yankees were done.  The 4-way tie is still possible...it would've been a bit easier if the Mariners cashed in their chances...leadoff triple in the 7th or 8th, leadoff double in the 9th, neither were converted.  In a 2-1 loss.  But with Toronto also crushing Baltimore, a game 163 is looking VERY likely, and the 4 way tie is still in the cards.  And now, not *that* unlikely.  Yankees lose 1, Toronto wins 1, Seattle wins 2, and the Red Sox split.  Everyone has 91.

 

EDIT:  and the Red Sox make it a sweat but win too.  Same as yesterday;  I hope Seattle can flip their script and make it REALLY interesting.  There would be 4 different ways for a 3-way tie, if so: 

 

--4 way tie:  Yanks and Sox lose, Jays and Mariners win

--for both WCs...Yanks and Sox both lose, Jays OR Mariners win 

--for 1 WC...Yanks OR Sox win, Jays and Mariners win

 

Found the tiebreaker procedure.  First:  the teams are ranked by combined head-to-head.  This determines the order in which they get to pick their  designation:  A, B, C, or D in a four-way.  Four-way is easy:  A hosts B, C hosts D, winners play in the WC game.  (I think there's a separate round of tiebreaking to pick the host.)  3 way tie for BOTH spots:  A hosts B, winner advances.  Loser hosts C for the 2nd slot.  So this one's straightforward...A is preferred, then B, then C.

 

3 way tie for 1 WC spot is the most interesting.  A hosts B;  winner hosts C.  So...C only has to win one game but it's a road game.  B is the worst spot without question, but whether I'd prefer A or C is harder.  A would have to win 2...but they are both home games.  And most games have full attendance now.  But ya also gotta recognize that this only gets you *into* the WC game...and your pitching is very likely to be very strained.  

[Pariah]

Rockies name interim GM Bill Schmidt permanent general manager

 

The phrase "Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic comes to mind".

[unclevlad]

And the Mariners take everyone on a roller coaster ride in the 8th...blow the lead by giving up a 3 run dinger, then loading the bases but with 2 outs...then getting the go-ahead base hit.

 

So Yanks and Sox lead Jays and Mariners by 1.  The 4 way tie is still possible.  Of the 16 different possible outcome sets, 9 have some form of tie;  7 don't.  (NY and Bos win, OR Seattle and Toronto lose.  4 each, but share 1 case.) 

 

And Dodgers-Giants may still have to play #163.  

[BNakagawa]

The SFGiants win game 107 and the NL West on game 162, setting a record for the most wins by any team that clinched its division on the last day of the regular season.

 

Starting pitcher Logan Webb went 7+ innings, scoring 3 runs and driving in 2 with his first three at bats. the Designated Hitter is for weaklings.

[Pariah]

The Rockies took a 4-1 lead into the seventh inning in Arizona, only to lose 5-4. The Rockie Horror Pitching Show strikes again.

 

Thus ends another wasted summer at Coors Field. And thus begins the annual iteration of "Where will ___ be playing next season?" game, this year featuring Trevor Story. My top five guesses: St. Louis (reuniting with BFF Nolan Arenado), Los Angeles, New York Yankees, San Francisco, or Boston.

[BNakagawa]

The Giants just extended Brandon Crawford, so signing an expensive freeagent like Story doesn't make much sense.

[Pariah]

It doesn't make sense to trade a player like Nolan Arenado for a number five starter and a bag of magic beans, but here we are.

[unclevlad]

But there's no point in trying to get present value for a player like Story when you're nowhere close to winning.  D'backs pulled this twice, with Greinke and Bumgarner..

 

It also doesn't help to be in the same division as the Dodgers, who'll outspend the Pentagon every year.  But let's face it, there's 15-20 teams that start every season with little or no chance.  There are the occasional heads that rise above the waterline and make the playoffs...and anything can happen in the playoffs...only to go back under for another 5-6 years.  

[unclevlad]

Story worth reading:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32172108/can-union-fix-minor-leaguers-say-poverty-level-pay-poor-housing-driving-mental-health-crisis

 

And this year, there were only 2 additional rosters spots in September.  MLB minimum salary is $570K;  prorate this and it's about $3500 per game.  So if you latch on for 20 games, you're good.  That used to help 10 players per team, but that's been dropped.  (Just as well, as the roster expansion in the heat of the pennant chase was seriously problematic.)

 

I hadn't realized it was *that* bad, tho, altho I should've, I think.  I know tennis has the same issue...and it's viewed as a very serious problem.  If you're not in the top 100 *in the world* you strain to make a living.  Tennis is expensive for the players because it's an individual sport.  If you can consistently play in ATP events, it's better...the ATP covers on-site hotel and meals.  But there aren't that many spots, and if you're outside the top 100, you *may* be able to get in through qualifying...and room and board *aren't* covered...but that's an addtional 3 matches with minimal paydays.  So it's very tough.

 

The big-name pros have been pushing for improvements;  they actually negociated lower late-round prizes at the Grand Slams, to raise the prize money in the first round considerably.  In MLB, the story suggests that maybe a similar movement could be gaining some traction.  It'll be a lot harder;  there are 120 minor league teams, so around 3000 players.  Any raises would almost certainly have to be subsidized by the league (perhaps allocating some of the luxury tax) or the clubs, which clearly would be completely inconsistent.

 

 

[BNakagawa]

despite all the possible tiebreaking scenarios, the AL wildcard race ended in the most predictable and boring way possible, with BoSox and Yankees fending off the Mariners and BlueJays.  After Tuesday's game, one or the other of the usual suspects will fall by the wayside and then we'll wait to see if the defending WS champs from the truncated 2020 season are one and done.

[Cancer]

* The guy who's been a Seattle Mariners fan for as long as there's been Seattle Mariners ... spits, and will watch absolutely zero postseason baseball again this year. *

 

And the East Coast Corporate Media conglomeration can take their rigged playoffs and stick them where the sun doesn't shine with a chainsaw lubricated with molten uranium.

[Pariah]

6 hours ago, Cancer said:

* The guy who's been a Seattle Mariners fan for as long as there's been Seattle Mariners ... spits, and will watch absolutely zero postseason baseball again this year. *

 

I'm with you. As far as I'm concerned, the baseball season ended yesterday with Colorado snatching defeat from the very jaws of victory one final time. Against the lowly Diamondbacks, of all teams.

[slikmar]

12 hours ago, BNakagawa said:

fter Tuesday's game, one or the other of the usual suspects will fall by the wayside

This is the only thing that makes raises Sunday from being utterly depressing. (Ohtani hitting his 46th HR and getting to 100 RBI to go with his 26 SB and 100+ runs scored was one of the others). I blame Toronto for this situation, Thursday their Ace and Cy Young favorite decided to lay an egg in what was probably the biggest start of the year.

 

Speaking of Ohtani, he is said to be very open to returning to Angels on a long term contract. So, How much do you pay this guy? I am thinking National Debt? I mean, as a hitter he is a 20mil a year guy under the current standards, as a pitcher he is probably a 25 mil or more a year. As a player/ambassador he is priceless - he has a smile playing even when he is being intentionally walked 20 times, he apologizes to guys for getting them out, he is great with fans. If ever there was a player who you wish you could put in a personal clause to alleviate some of the luxury tax expense, its him. I wish there were more players like him in the league, and not talking about his on field talent.

[Grailknight]

47 minutes ago, slikmar said:

This is the only thing that makes raises Sunday from being utterly depressing. (Ohtani hitting his 46th HR and getting to 100 RBI to go with his 26 SB and 100+ runs scored was one of the others). I blame Toronto for this situation, Thursday their Ace and Cy Young favorite decided to lay an egg in what was probably the biggest start of the year.

 

Speaking of Ohtani, he is said to be very open to returning to Angels on a long term contract. So, How much do you pay this guy? I am thinking National Debt? I mean, as a hitter he is a 20mil a year guy under the current standards, as a pitcher he is probably a 25 mil or more a year. As a player/ambassador he is priceless - he has a smile playing even when he is being intentionally walked 20 times, he apologizes to guys for getting them out, he is great with fans. If ever there was a player who you wish you could put in a personal clause to alleviate some of the luxury tax expense, its him. I wish there were more players like him in the league, and not talking about his on field talent.

 

Well they're paying Trout 40 million and Ohtani just put up a 9 WAR season which is typical Trout. Plus he is younger and more popular especially when you add in the Asian market. So I'd guess he'll get 45 million minimum and may be the first to break 50 or even approach 60. You know the Yankees or Dodgers would go that high if he hits free agency.