MLB 2021

[unclevlad]

The question with Ohtani is, can he actually continue as a 2-way player full time?  The biggest factor with continuing to pitch is, of course, an arm injury.  Or perhaps not as a starter?  I still like the notion of him as a later-inning, multi-inning type, where he started as the DH.  He goes 2-4 innings and continues to hit.

 

But if you pay him as an elite hitter, does the risk of arm problems devalue that aspect?  

 

He's also had significant knee and elbow injuries.  

 

So I'm just not sure I'd be paying him *that* much.  The current contract is $8.5 mill for this year and next year, which is dirt cheap by any measure.  It'll cost WAY more next time.  But I'm thinking something in the $20-25M range.  One thing to consider is, the Angels are already paying Trout and Rendon $60M.  Upton gets $28M, but he'll be a FA after 2022, and could well be out of the game after that.  His last 3 years, he's hit about .210.  His OPS this year was .705;  he didn't qualify, but among qualified players (enough plate appearances over the season) that would've been about #120.  So maybe he can connect elsewhere but for a LOT less.

 

But if the Angels back up the Brinks truck for Ohtani, they'll have far too much committed.  They were 22nd in team ERA this year.  That don't cut it.  Want a correlation?  The teams in the playoffs rank 1-8 in team ERA;  St. Louis is 12, Boston is 15.  So, the Angels have painted themselves into a similar corner as the Rangers did a few years ago, particularly with the Josh Hamilton contract...all the money was in the hitters.  And arguably, the Angels have continued to try the proven-unsuccessful tactic...the Pujols contract was one of the worst ever, IMO;  it was far, far too much for too long.  So if they do sign Shohei to $40M, I think they're just repeating past mistakes.

[Grailknight]

While there is always the risk of injury, you can't make contract offers assuming a player will get hurt unless you're willing to lose that player to a team more willing to accept that risk. I think this year showed that Ohtani has bounced back well from previous injuries. Plus as you say, Upton will be gone after next year. It's a bit different than giving a huge deal to a 34 year old Pujols. Ohtani is 27 years old and just entering his prime baseball years. Plus, to address your last concern about team structure, he is a 4.1 WAR pitcher a year removed from Tommy John Surgery. He was the the starting All-Star pitcher even the rehab and his restricted pitch count. Even if he can't pitch anymore, he'd be a 7 WAR hitter and near Gold Glove outfielder. That alone would be worth almost 35 million. 

[slikmar]

5 hours ago, Grailknight said:

You know the Yankees or Dodgers would go that high if he hits free agency.

Yeah, the Angels cannot let him get to free agency. Only thing going against Dodgers is he no DH so wouldnt get to hit rest of week, Yankees however...

One thing I pointed out to my brother, unlike most high priced free agent signings for teams, you aren't really sacrificing the other side of the ball - Big hitter costing so much can't sign pitcher or vice versa.

My biggest worry, honestly with Angels this offseason, isn't resigning him. They need to go after a #1 pitcher: my preference might be Scherzer, who wants to be in SoCal, but might have to bid vs Dodgers for him, which is where my worry comes in. Dodgers, once again, outbid us for a Free Agent and Arte Moreno gets annoyed and in a fit goes and overpays one of the shortstops coming out. Offense/Defense is not the Angels problem, they need a big pitcher, maybe resign Cobb then fill out with all these young guys who showed they were about ready. Then figure out the bullpen. A 6 man rotation that is Scherzer, two of the younger guys (Detmers, Sandoval, Suarez, Junk Jenkins (love that name cause it means we got Junk for Heaney), Ohtani, Cobb and another of the younger guys works for me.

[BNakagawa]

CBA expires soon, so the universal DH might be on the table, which would double the number of potential landing spots for Ohtani.

[Grailknight]

Not really, unless the Cubs switch out of rebuild, no NL team will spend that kind of money except the Dodgers who are already included. The Cardinals, Nationals or Phillies could but I don't see it.

[unclevlad]

Risk with Scherzer is age and now mileage.  He's 37.  Not counting last season, he's averaged about 32-33 starts a year since the trade to Washington, and logged over 1000 innings and about 1300 strikeouts.  At this point, he's not a great candidate for a long term deal;  a big 2 year deal is as far as I'd go.

 

The Ohtani injury issue...I don't think you can ignore it.  I get...yeah...it's a risk, but pitchers develop arm problems SO often.  If someone really does back up the truck and offer him something like $45M a year, it'll be a franchise-level gamble, IMO.  It'd be SO MUCH of the payroll.  And remember for the Dodgers...unless/until they can dump Trevor Bauer's contract, they're already WAY over the luxury tax threshold.  Adding Ohtani, especially at this kind of salary, would incur a *serious* extra charge.  If Bauer's situation is resolved...that's $32M, IIRC, going off the books.  Now making a run at Ohtani is a heckuva lot easier.  And at this point, I suspect no one outside his camp ever expects Bauer to play again.  But the Dodgers have to push hard to get this resolved because they're stuck paying him.  His salary was fully guaranteed.  

 

I'll also say...if someone does back up the truck, gods, DON'T make the mistake of doing it for an uber long term.  Contracts like Pujols got, or Lindor's, are massive boat anchors too often.  

 

Universal DH:  god, I hope so.  Watching pitchers try to hit is too often a joke, and creating such a glaring gap when intraleague is now very common, is ludicrous.  I'd also love to see the runner on 2nd stay in the 10th, but that appears to be doomed.  So we go back to nothing but swing for the fences, pitchers piling up strikeouts, more 13-15 inning games, and more BOREDOM.

[BNakagawa]

There is a nonzero chance that the two teams with the highest payrolls in the MLB might be one and done after the wildcard round and I'm all for it.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, BNakagawa said:

There is a nonzero chance that the two teams with the highest payrolls in the MLB might be one and done after the wildcard round and I'm all for it.

 

 

Given that Boston's up 4-1 after 6, it's looking good so far.

 

I also would kinda like the Cards to take out both the Dodgers and Giants, to show that the baseball regular season is meaningless.  The lines for tomorrow are Cards at +185, Dodgers at -225;  that puts the Dodgers at about 2:1 favorites, but that's all.  Yeah, for baseball, for 1 game, that's pretty big but the Cards still have a big chance.

[slikmar]

I am holding out for a huge brawl in the Yankee/Sox game where each team gets 5 guys suspended, so no matter who wins, not their A team playing next round.

 

[unclevlad]

My friends...if I might humbly address you as such...

 

Let us doff our hats, lift our heads, and raise our voices in joyful noise, for that Great Evil has been beaten back yet again, and all that is Right And Good is SAFE for another turning of the seasons!!!

 

 

YANKEES LOSE!!  THHEEEEEEEEEEEEEE......YANKEES LOSE!!!!

 

(Ken Singleton retired from broadcasting, announcing it on Saturday during game 161.  Too bad, I liked him.  I'm pleading for John Sterling to vanish ASAP.  EDIT:  Vasgersian messed up the Stanton ball in the first...but Sterling botched it way, way, way worse.  Both thought it was gone off the bat, but Sterling never saw it hit the wall and stay in play, and continued to focus on his overdone, awful announcing...until the play was over and Stanton was on first.  Then it was...what....???)

 

EDIT 2:  I also love that the Yankees lost repeating the same stupid stunts.  Stanton trots after the ball.  He might not have been able to reach 2nd;  the LF played that ball perfectly, and those end up being singles reasonably often.  But the arrogant HR trot meant he had no chance.  Then the 2nd ball off the wall, Judge got thrown out at the plate by a lot.  Yankees led the majors in outs on the bases.

[Pariah]

I'll be cheering for St. Louis to beat the Dodgers today. Mom was a lifelong Cardinals fan, and it's what she would have wanted.

 

Plus, you know, it's the Dodgers.

[BNakagawa]

Cardinals go 0-11 with RISP and fall to the Dodgers. 

 

Here.

 

We.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Go.

[unclevlad]

Well at least ya gotta admit it was dramatic.  

 

Altho if you're a Cards fan, I suspect it feels like plasma claws just ripped your heart out of your chest....

 

So now we get a combined 214 wins playing in the *divisional* round.  Believe it's a record, as it's been mandated that the #1 seed plays the WC.  With 1 WC team, the #1 seed picked...the 116-win Mariners dodged the WC A's with 102 wins and played (and beat) the 91-win Indians.  I'd forgotten they allowed this choice, akshully...

[Pariah]

In the immortal words of Michael Garibaldi, "Lousy Dodgers."

 

I suppose the good news is that with the Cardinals out of it, I now have officially no reason at all to watch any more baseball.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

Weren't the Cardinals winning...? Dammit.

 

At least there's still the Rays. 

[unclevlad]

And as of this moment, I'm rooting for them to win the Series.

 

It's nice to be up 4-0 but...2 outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd...Randy Arozarena timed up the pitcher superbly and JUST STOLE HOME!!!  The pitcher checked him...turned, took his sweet time checking the runner at 2nd.  Arozarena broke when the pitcher started that, and it was no contest.

 

YOWSA!!!

[BNakagawa]

Logan Webb's first playoff start was a masterpiece, going 7.2 on 92 pitches, allowing 5 hits and no runs with 10 Ks.

 

Walker Buehler  goes 6.1 on 99 pitches, allowing 6 hits, two of them HRs, 3 ER and 5Ks to take the L.

 

Buster Posey launches a HR into the bay on a bounce in the bottom of the 1st with a runner on, Kris Bryant and Brandon Crawford add solo HRs to finish the scoring at 4-0.

[unclevlad]

19 minutes ago, BNakagawa said:

Buster Posey launches a HR into the bay on a bounce in the bottom of the 1st with a runner on, Kris Bryant and Brandon Crawford add solo HRs to finish the scoring at 4-0.

 

On a bounce!  It hit off the top of the stadium outer wall.

 

2 hours and 40 minutes.  Wow.  Yankees vs. Red Sox sometimes has longer *innings*.  

 

Home teams are currently 7-1.

 

Mid-afternoon for the game in Milwaukee (5 ET start), West Coast game's the late game.  Makes the NL scheduling super-easy;  that game's always going to be the last.  

[unclevlad]

Wild day.

 

Rays-Sox.  Top of the 14th, 2 out, runner on first.  Rays batter sends one off the wall in center;  hits the wall firmly on the descent, and hops hard and fast.  It actually *hits* the outfielder, who didn't have any time to react at all.  This, not surprisingly, redirects the ball...and it flies right over the very short outfield fence.  

 

Confusion reigns.  The runner on first was going on contact, of course, with 2 outs;  he would've scored.  Pretty good change the batter would've ended up at third.

 

Nope.  Final ruling...explained later...until a fielder establishes firm control, accidental contact is still considered to be the batted ball.  So...ground rule double.  No run allowed;  they never seem to even if the rules allow it.  And yes....the next batter flies out, IIRC.  NO runs.  Boston scores in the bottom of the inning, game over.

 

Houston-White Sox.  6-6 in the fourth, runners on 1st and 3rd, no outs.  Ground ball to the first baseman who throws home.  Ball goes wild, gets away;  run scores.  On the replay?  The throw home hit the batter, who I thought shifted a good step further inside the baseline on his path out of the box.  LOOKS like interference to me...but not called.  Shades of Reggie Jackson, IMO.

[slikmar]

the ground rule double rule, especially now with replay having access to multiple cameras and syncing up, needs to be based on where the runners are when the ball goes over the fence. When the ball hit the outfielder, the runner was already rounding third.

[unclevlad]

It already allows for that.  I might have seen it called anything more than "2 bases for everyone* like...once?  Maybe.  Always seems like the umps don't want to stick their neck out.  And baseball is still seriously anti-replay overall.  Not as bad as soccer but close.  They also have the worst rules with regard to replays, IMO...the slide rule, where for a tenth of a second the runner lifts off the bag and it takes 3 minutes to even see it...oh he's out!!  HATE that one.  Trap or catch situations are a total disaster.  Fielder seems to catch it?  Ruled as a catch?  Runner on first heads back.  Throw to second.  GUARANTEED to get an out no matter how it's called in replay.

 

So Braves and Brewers are on.  Yet another How DUMB can you be? case.  2nd inning, IIRC.  Runners on first and third, one out.  Fly ball to left.  Left fielder's Yelich...not much of an arm.  Runner tags at third.  

No problem so far.  BUT...*so does the runner from 1st*.  Yelich has no play at the plate...so he throws to second.  DUH.  The stupid runner on first DOES NOT STOP or try to reverse course to get back to first.  He's out easily...it wasn't close.

 

And he's tagged out *before the runner from third crosses the plate.*  NO RUN SCORED.

 

Stupid.  Stupid.  Stupid.  SO MANY players show no judgement when it's needed.  It's my #1 pet peeve in sports.

 

Oh, quick aside.  Interesting that the TV broadcasts have come up with a new ad hook.  Shots from the center field camera are extremely common.  The mound has all that clean space on it.  So they're slapping a brand name into the picture stream now.  Changes multiple times.

 

EDIT:  ARGHH!!!  ANOTHER one.

Rays-Sox tied up 5-5, bottom of the 8th.  Runner on 2nd, 1 out.  Fly ball to right, caught...2 outs.  Runner tags and tries to take third.  FINE, it took a VERY good throw and tag, and it was close enough to go to replay...but he was OUT.  ARGH!!!  Does ANYONE learn how to run the bases correctly any more???

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

 

#Rays 

[Cygnia]

Well, that's one less thing to worry about this October...

[slikmar]

To me, the Rays have one job (well 2 sortof), insure the Red Sox and Yankees do not advance in playoffs and look bad because a team with 25% of their payroll beats them in the regular season. sadly, they left one box unchecked. even worse, now the ALCS is looking to be the Houston Cheaters vs Red Sox Nation. Is there a way for neither team to advance? Anyone with Covid want free tickets if they agree to go spend significant time with both teams?

[aylwin13]