MLB 2021

[unclevlad]

And you think Colorado is bad?

 

The D'backs lost their 19th straight road game this afternoon at Oakland.  OK, the Rockies' road record is worse...how does a team manage to go 4-23 anyway?  But they win at home, and the D'backs are 5 under .500 at home.  And they've fallen off the planet after a semi-decent start.  Below-average offense that's been notably less productive recently, and worst team ERA in MLB.  The icing on the cake to me, tho, is when you've got that big, fat, glaring negative stat to point at repeatedly, with the 19-game road losing streak.  THAT is why I wouldn't be surprised if the manager's gone before the trade deadline.

[Pariah]

Oh, make no mistake, Colorado is bad. They may not finish with their first hundred loss season ever this year, but I think they'll be mathematically eliminated no later than mid-August.

 

But yeah, Arizona is much worse.

[unclevlad]

Nah, not that early.  Not based on the records right now.  Rocks are 11 back of the Padres, who have the last playoff spot right now...but also note that the Padres would be leading the NL East or Central, and half game back in the AL West.  They're 3rd in the NL West.  And the Rocks have played 32 division games, one of the highest numbers in the league at this point.  On the downside, 10 of em have been against...the D'backs.  But 11 back after 65-ish games, projected forward...that's 22 back at the 130 game mark, which is late-ish August.  Should be, what, 27 or so games in September, give or take.  

 

Granted...the trade deadline this year is end of July.  By that date they'll be irrelevant.  (The D'backs will be irrelevant by the All-Star break.)

 

And this just in, the D'backs fired their hitting coach and assistant hitting coach today.  One of the problems of the franchise, tho, has been its coaching churn.  Torey Lovullo actually has managed the 3rd-most games in franchise history...admittedly not that long, but no manager's lasted more than 4 1/2 years...including 3 who won manager of the year, and Bob Brenly, who won the World Series.  But the turnover with managers and GMs (they're on #3 since 2010) has been crazy, and one has to suspect it's been a major factor in their inconsistency...at best.  

[unclevlad]

OTOH, the D'backs might be.  68 games played, they're 17 1/2 back of the Padres.

 

8-3 lead in San Fran...blown.  Again.  21 straight road losses;  record, according to the Dodger broadcasters (have that game on MLB network) is 22.  Lost 26 of 28 overall.

 

That's full-on dumpster fire, injuries or no.  Manager and/or GM won't last beyond the All Star break;  that just feels inevitable.  They're on pace to lose 110 games.

[slikmar]

In some ways I sort of forgive D'backs, though not much. losing 4 of your 5 starters is brutal, but then, they were under 500 when they had them.

[archer]

I'm reminded of this old Tank McNamara cartoon.

 

The scene is inside the locker room. You can hear the announcer's voice telling that the team today has a surprise all-new lineup.

 

The scene shows that players are ripping their own names off their uniforms and sewing on different names.

[unclevlad]

On 6/16/2021 at 10:33 AM, slikmar said:

In some ways I sort of forgive D'backs, though not much. losing 4 of your 5 starters is brutal, but then, they were under 500 when they had them.

 

Yeah, to a point, but losing 26 of 28...well, one can also argue that's on the front office for failing to develop depth.  And there was a stretch, IIRC, where they gutted their farm system.  So that's why I figure it could be the GM.

 

LATE EDIT:  D'backs got smashed again at SF.  Postgame show, Brandon Webb pointed out...at one point they were 2 over.  That was, looking it up...May 2nd.  15-13.  That means they have gone 5-37 since.  The worst season starts in MLB history include 5-21, 5-28, and 7-35.  Granted that's just to start the season, but I have no doubt this is one of the worst 42-game records in history...it's a winning percentage of .119.

 

[unclevlad]

When it rains, it pours, part deux...

 

Yankees just turned their *third* triple play of the season.  OK, sensibly, the 2nd one was a total gift...totally terrible base running, 2 different runners hung up and tagged out.  But still technically a triple play.  Today's was a straightforward, classic 5-4-3, hard one-hopper to 3rd base.

 

Angels studio guy mentioned it.  True but snide comment...since May 21st, the Yankees have more triple plays than the D'backs have wins.  D'backs won on May 15th to get to 18-22.  They're down 9-2 going into their 8th inning ABs, so figure...today's another loss.  Makes them 2-31 since.  If that was a batting average for a pitcher (not named Ohtani) it'd be bad.

 

Speaking of Ohtani, wow.  Numbers are insane...and then some.  Still remains to be seen whether he'll hold up under the combined load but so far he's been nothing short of amazing.

[slikmar]

The MVP race between him and Vlad Jr. is great argument. Triple crown vs a guy with same HRs but pitches like he does. Ohtani wouldnt be MVP on either side of the ball, but his combination makes it a great argument. Remember, one of Trout's MVP losses was when Cabrera had Triple Crown even though many argued Trout had a better year.

Now if only Rendon would remember how to stay healthy and hit. And if any of their relief guys could not walk the first guy when they come in.

[unclevlad]

The other fun issue is whether deGrom could win the MVP.  The NL Cy Young, his lead mimics Tiger's at the '97 US Open, where he won by *12* strokes.  deGrom's WAR is already at 4.2, and we haven't reached July.  (And I doubt that reflects today's performance where his ERA dropped AGAIN after 5 innings of 1-hit pitching.  (He got lifted for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 5th, of a 7 inning game.)

 

One of Trout's problems is that the Angels have been consistently mediocre.  That may impact Shohei too, altho what he's doing is unique in our lifetimes...and close to unique throughout baseball's history.  So it's certainly not being ignored.

[slikmar]

So, if DeGrom continues with whatever seems to be physically bothering him but continues to put up numbers, but keeps coming out of games early and doesn't make the "minimum" innings thing, do they still give him the cy young? he is borderline on innings right now.

[unclevlad]

I think the minimum innings pitched is just for the ERA title...like minimum number of plate appearances is for the batting title.  That's all, tho;  there are no formal requirements for the Cy Young or MVP awards.  It wasn't that uncommon for a reliever to win the Cy Young;  Eckersley won both Cy Young and MVP in '92, actually (with a total of 80 innings pitched...but 51 saves.)  Now, it's very unlikely that a reliever will do it again;  Eric Gagne was the last, in 2003.  And I think we've largely segregated the awards...there's a reliever of the year. so I think that works against then for the Cy Young.  Craig Kimbrel finished 4th and 5th early in his career, when he led the majors in saves for 4 straight years.

 

deGrom is on pace for ~27 starts and he's averaging 6 innings per start.  Today wasn't being yanked early;  recognize, it was 1-0 Mets in the bottom of the 5th.  But in a 7 inning game, that's the same as the bottom of the 7th.  Runner on 1st, 1 out, you really want to get the run in.  Your best relievers should be set up to go too;  you only need 2 innings out of em.  That workload won't be considered low...especially this season, when most teams are being even more conservative.  

 

It's also clear that expectations are different now.  In 2019, only 15 pitchers threw 200+ innings.  Also notable...only 75 threw 150+ innings.  Because only 50 pitchers started 30 games.  44 started 10-15 games.  OK, some would be injury, but that's still suggesting a LOT of part-time starters.  The rules changes probably won't impact starting pitchers' innings that much...not individually.  It might mean 1 or 2 fewer starts per year, as there are more "emergency" starters used.  So far this season, near the halfway mark...there have been 277 different pitchers to start a game.  That is 9 per team.  74 started 1 game.  26 started 2 games.  16 started 3 games.  Yeah, LOTS of these have been openers, but still, it points out that a WHOLE lot of games don't have a conventional "major league" starter.

 

 

[unclevlad]

So is simply misery loves company?

D'backs are at 23 straight road losses;  they've had a couple series at home.  Joy of joys, tho, now they head to San Diego, then St. Louis.  

 

But they have company.  The Orioles lost their 20th straight road game tonight.  Rangers lost 16 in a row earlier.  If you take out the 4 *awful* road teams...Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Baltimore...the rest of the league is, if I worked this out right, around 460-490...so cumulatively pretty close to .500.  Those 4 tho, are 11-26, 10-27, 9-31, and 6-28.  That rather distorts the overall picture....

 

And the last thing left...a perfect game.  Cubs throw the rare combined no-hitter tonight, for #7 officially, so that box gets checked.  It's only the 15th in history...but the 6th since 2012.

[Pariah]

Milwaukee broke open a 4-4 game against Colorado with a 6-run 8th inning.

 

All hail the Rocky Horror Pitching Show.

[slikmar]

As an Angel fan, I feel their pain.

[unclevlad]

Philles fans feel the same.  Midweek game last week vs. the Nats.  Philly is up 5-0 after 4.

They give up 5 in the top of the 5th.

They score 4 more in the bottom of the 5th.

They give up 6 in the top of the 6th.

They score 1 in the 7th, 2 in the 8th to get the lead back, 12-11, going into the 9th.

 

And give up 2 more in the top of the 9th.

 

Altho their bullpen hasn't been as bad as some overall.  But what we see so often is, when the pitching is bad, it is VERY bad.

 

And in a stunning turn of events, both the D'backs and Orioles have won a road game over the weekend.  (Friday night counts, you know it does.)

[BNakagawa]

***NEWS FLASH***

 

The Arizona Diamondbacks won a game in San Diego, breaking the longest road losing streak in MLB history.

[slikmar]

Which apparently has a chance to be broken in the next week or so by Colorado(?)

[BNakagawa]

14 minutes ago, slikmar said:

Which apparently has a chance to be broken in the next week or so by Colorado(?)

 

Their current road losing streak stands at 3. The earliest chance for them to break the record will come in late August.

[unclevlad]

Bob Costas pointed out, during an MLB Network braodcast, that at one point this year, the D'Backs were 15-13.  Since then...7-44.  So 7-43 for 50 games.  Can't find if this is a record worst or not, but the complement...a 43-7 or better stretch has only happened twice.  In 1906 and 1912.  Dodgers ran off a 42-8 outburst in 2013;  other than that, 40-10 hasn't happened since 1977.

 

Stretching things out, the lowest numbers of wins in the 162-game season era are 47 (2018 Orioles, 2019 Tigers but they only played 161);  the 2003 Tigers at 43, and the poster child for utter baseball ineptitude, the 1962 Mets.  D'backs are on pace for ~ 45.

 

Looking at it:  I find it interesting that this will make a third team to lose 70+% of their games in 3 full seasons, if that pace continues.  Maybe it's coincidence, but I think it's pattern, to a degree.  Bad teams, and the D'backs, Tigers, and Orioles have all been bad for several years, have a harder time keeping anyone good, and this process might be getting worse.

 

22 minutes ago, slikmar said:

Which apparently has a chance to be broken in the next week or so by Colorado(?)

 

Mmm...nope.  Rockies have a bad road record but they win games here and there.  Lose 6, win 1;  lose 5, win 1;  lose 1, win 1;  lose 5, win 1, since the start of May.  You might be thinking of the Orioles;  they lost 20 in a row, but won Saturday.  Rangers had a 15 game road losing streak, but I believe that one's over too.

 

EDIT:  not that you're that far off, as the Rockies have the worst road record *by a mile* even with the D'back losing streak.  They're currently 6-31 (.162);  D'backs are 10-33 (.232).

 

Further, I suspect the Rockies will likely at least approach the most extreme home/road difference.  They're 26-16 at home;  that's .619.  That's VERY good.  OK, I'm pretty sure that this has been a pattern of theirs, but I dunno if it's been THIS bad.

[slikmar]

It was the Orioles I was thinking of. Didnt know they had won.

[unclevlad]

Yep.  Both insane streaks ended on, IIRC, consecutive days, or possibly the same day.  Just as well;  losing streaks limited to road games only are much less noticeable but any seriously long losing streak is not good for the sport.  These became long enough to draw broad interest.

 

But you've got Arizona and Baltimore both 30 (or more) under .500 coming into the halfway point of the season.  To even reach 90 wins, Baltimore would need to go ~ 65-16;  Arizona, 67-14.  Give or take 1 maybe, depending on their exact records.  The best first half in MLB history (for 81 games) is the absolutely awesome '98 Yankees...the best team I can remember.  They went 61-20.  So we can fundamentally say, there's NO chance either team will make the playoffs.  (And heck, just reaching 90 will probably NOT be all that close to a playoff berth.)

 

So 2 teams are already fundamentally, if not technically, eliminated before the 4th of July.  That is not good.  And, Texas and Pittsburgh are almost there;  they'd need ~ 60 wins in the second half to reach 90.  They have the better shot at getting in with just 90 wins, too.

 

But by the All-Star break, there's a good chance that these 4, plus at least 1 or 2 from the next-worst group (Detroit, KC, Minnesota, Miami, Colorado) will be fundamentally eliminated.  That's just too many non-competitive teams.

[Pariah]

One could argue that the Colorado Rockies were eliminated from postseason contention the moment they paid the Cardinals $50M to take Nolan Arenado off their hands, but I won't quibble.

 

The Rocks, by all appearances, are in full-on fire-sale mode. Those who write about such things for a living seem convinced that Trevor Story to Oakland is pretty much a done deal. There's also talk of interest in starter John Gray, reliever Daniel Bard (although why, I have no idea; as closers go, he's not terribly consistent), and even 35-year old Charlie Blackmon from various contenders, including, of course, the St. Louis Cardinals.

 

As I've been watching the Rockies this year, the most common question that has come to my mind is, "Now who is that?" It seems like every game I watch introduces me to some player who was in Albuquerque last week. Which I suppose is fitting; the Rocks are effectively playing a AAA roster.

 

The Rockies are on pace for the worst road record in Major League Baseball history-- a point that's been brought up before. It's really remarkable, though, that they're also on pace to finish 10 or 15 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. 

 

It's a strange season in Denver, to be sure.

[archer]

45 minutes ago, Pariah said:

One could argue that the Colorado Rockies were eliminated from postseason contention the moment they paid the Cardinals $50M to take Nolan Arenado off their hands, but I won't quibble.

 

The Rocks, by all appearances, are in full-on fire-sale mode.

 

Most people who are having a sale figure out before they start that you don't sell things by giving away a huge bundle of cash with each purchase. But apparently it took the Rockies at least one GM before it learned that lesson.  

 

But I agree that was when the Rockies were eliminated from contention....

[unclevlad]

What I don't get is *why* the Rocks are so utterly, disastrously AWFUL on the road.
 

 

Ohh.  I see.

 

Rockies' slash lines: (BA / OBP / Slug / OPS) 

home:  .280 / .339 / .471 / .810  (#3 in OPS in MLB, which is what I swapped to for sorting)

road:  .196 / .270 / .296 / .566  (dead last in OPS)

 

Stats are from MLB.com;  they let you split team stats in many different ways, including home or away only.  This extreme difference is crazy.  My first take is, on the road they're simply not aggressive enough.  On base percentage 70 points higher than batting average?  That's pretty weird these days.  The slugging percentage...ok, to a point that's tied t the batting average, but still, 175 points lower is crazy.  Not only are they barely getting hits, they're heavily weighted to singles.

 

So...well, hey, I get the complaint that they're burning down their own houses in these moves, but how much do they have that's worth keeping?  How much of this is a terrible front office, how much a poor coaching staff that can't break these *extreme* home/road discrepancies?