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2022-23 NFL Thread


Pariah

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Several sites have now said "signs with" and contract terms have been released, so it would appear to be a done deal.

 

DraftKings now has the Saints at +140 to win the division, with Panthers #2 at +240.  TB and Atlanta are +390 and +425.  This is pre-draft, so +140 is pretty strong.  Niners are -165, they're the strongest, but that also reflects the division.  Jacksonville is next at -140...another weak division.  Chiefs and Bills are only -120 and -110.  Mmm...the LIONS are +150 for their division.  Oddsmakers think the Vikes were lucky, I suspect.  

 

Note, I mention these purely for entertainment purposes, because no predictions mean anything this early. :)

 

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I'm a little surprised since I figured he'd wind up with the Jets.  Now the Jets are kind of screwed if they can't land Rodgers.  (And they're also screwed if they do land him.)

 

Meanwhile the Raiders are expected to trade for Garoppolo, and they'll be sure to get maybe half a season of decent football out of him.

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1 hour ago, Cancer said:

Seahawks sign Geno Smith for 3 more years at $105 million.

 

Desperation move.  10th among QBs according to SportsNaut...but that rises if you take out the foolish contracts that top the list (Watson, Wilson, Murray, Rodgers).  His track record reads BUST...except for last season.  

 

Granted, desperation is the core state most teams live in, year after year.  

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Ah, well ok, that does make more sense.  It's also not overly long.  

 

And one article pointed out...3 years means the Seahawks *could* consider drafting a QB with the #5 pick.  I'm not sure I'd go that way.  Smith will be 35 at the end of this contract...probably still good for a few more years barring injury, so if he is doing well, you've burned 3 of the opportunistic years with your high-drafted QB.  It's not the monetary cost you have to consider, it's the opportunity cost.  (And you have VERY limited time at that point, before having to make the decision to re-sign the young QB for LOTS more money, or let him go.)

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Yeah, that structure seems much more reasonable, and I agree with you about the young-quarterback opportunity cost.  The team has needs other than QB if Smith stays reasonably productive for a year or two, so IMO signing him to this sort of contract means you can put off fishing for a QB draftee for a year or two and take care of other things. 

 

So much is going on with teams playing fantasy games with their salary cap and so on that it would not surprise me at all if very soon the team cap structure gets overhauled.  The Rams showed the way to mortgage the future and win it all now, and other teams (not including Seattle) seem to be following.  Get enough of those and now a substantial chunk of the league ownership will be inclined favorably to change things so that those mortgages never actually come due.

 

On an entirely separate note, I have an opinion that there's a structural feature (not really a problem) that hasn't been articulated clearly in discussions of NFL team success.  I am going to suggest that the team feature that makes for dynasties is not a talented QB or even super-talented young QB on his rookie contract.  Instead, I think that a team has an immeasurable leg up if they have a big good-hands pass-catching tight end, like Kelce and Kittle now, and Gronkowski in an earlier dynasty.  NFL defensive schemes are predicated on trying to control deep WR threats, and coverage of a TE is an afterthought.  This is structural, and a response to the traditional (and ongoing) capabilities of talented speed-burner WRs, and the creeping rules and rule-interpretation adjustments that benefit the "exciting" deep passing game.  If you have a TE who can run deep patterns and catch what's thrown at them, then your offense has a feature that existing NFL defenses in general cannot control.  I'm not exactly saying that the successes of Brady (without a Gronk) or Mahomes (without a Kelce) or whomever the 49ers are using at QB this month (without a Kittle) would be absent without the presence of their associated big, strong, good-hands TE deep threat, but all those guys clearly benefit by having that sort of TE rather than a Luke "Spatula Hands" Willson type of TE who's a good blocker and can catch outlet tosses to the flat and that's it.

 

I think there's a need for a genius of a defensive theoretician to concoct a scheme to combat the TE deep threat, which will have to include recognizing what kind of individual you need to perform that sort of coverage, and how to restructure the coverage set-ups to control the gaping arterial wound which is the current outcome of setting such a TE loose deep in the secondary covered only with some hopelessly outclassed linebacker chasing after him ineffectually, or a DB four inches shorter and 35 pounds weaker flailing hopelessly at the high ball only the TE can get to.  I have no idea what that scheme would be and what personnel you would have to have to pull it off; but if you can do that then the brilliance of the QBs who have such teammates will be diminished.

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Defenses can't cover everyone.  One thing to note, tho:  you need threats *around* that TE.

 

Daniel Jones signs...4 years, $160M.  PLUS reportedly another $35M in incentives.  Not all the details are in, but this looks *very* high.  It's a great time to be a QB, I guess.

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Lamar Jackson gets the non-exclusive tag.  

 

Elsewhere, here's why there is no such thing as minor or simple surgery.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/dolphins-releasing-cb-byron-jones-after-three-seasons

 

Quote

Jones missed all of the 2022 season due to offseason Achilles surgery that didn’t go as planned. Recently, the 30-year-old tweeted that he "can’t run or jump" because of injury issues. At the time, it was reported that Jones had no plans of retiring.

 

It happens.  Surgeons dealing with pro athletes are generally *really* good...but it happens.  The guy may have no plans to retire, but from the sound of it, at best he's got a long, likely tricky rehab to get through first.  

And for a bit of a smile...

https://www.nfl.com/videos/tom-brady-s-hilarious-tweet-reaction-to-rumors-that-he-might-return-in-23

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Eh, the Texans claim this:

 

Quote

According to the collective bargaining agreement, teams must report any player compensation or benefit. The Texans believe the payment didn't provide any salary cap advantage and viewed it as an accounting error.

 

The amount was only about $27K, which largely amounts to accounting error...it's less than 0.02% of the salary cap.  On THIS one, anyway.  Doesn't mean there might be some slight advantage that could accrue from doing this repeatedly.  I don't buy the Texans' comment in the slightest, so this, IMO, is 100% on the organization.  The link to Watson is coincidental.

 

But, why did the Texans even think they should be paying it for Watson, regardless of how they account for it?  And is something like this reasonably common...or was it just for Watson?  Because THAT goes back to the point that the Texans facilitated Watson's actions.  Again, tho, if that's the basis, it's still the organization's fault.

 

 

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Speaking of funny money...

 

Watching the supersaturation of college hoops, mostly on ESPN or ESPN2, and following the bottom line crawl intermittently, the big NFL news is contract restructuring to save cap space.  Yeah...cap space, funny money at its finest.  Multiple teams...I presume things like converting salary to bonus (which, I believe, can then be spread out over multiple years), or maybe deferring money past the contract duration.  And we're talking some BIG bucks.  Cowboys...$30M.  Jets...$15M, aiming for Rodgers.  Another team was $40M, IIRC.

 

The NFL's salary cap rules go so far beyond abstruse as to make string theory seem as simple as kite strings.

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3 minutes ago, Cancer said:

 

Saw that while watching the basketball.  Like the story's comment...Rams maxed out the credit cards to buy their SB ring, and now the bills are all coming due.  But everyone recognized this;  once they traded for Von Miller, the path was locked in.  

Still...only a 3rd round pick for Ramsey?  Wagner, I get.  He's 32, he's got a LOT!!!! of mileage on him.  11 years, 184 games (regular season and playoffs.)  I chalk this up to better a year too early than a year too late.  (Yeah, it's a minority view.)  Floyd is salary dump.  Ramsey's still young...but he had the highest cap hit among cornerbacks.  

Ya gotta think Stafford is next, but his contract is gonna be brutal to unload.  2023...not horrible.  2024?  OWWW.  Cap hit is almost $50M, and just over $50M for 2025.  2026 is the last year, and he's only got a $12M hit against the cap if they cut him (vs. almost $50M if they keep him).  

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Yeah, at this point, the Jets fans are hosed no matter what.  Either they get the flake, which will cost them enormously...or they lose out by the way the flake plays anyone who considers dealing with it.  

 

Reports are unclear at this point, but the tone from the Packers does suggest they're going to do the deal if they can possibly work out the details.  SI suggests that's tricky, so...we shall see.  

 

Personally, if the Jets complete this, I'll root hard for more Bronco-Hackett magic...

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