College Football 2022

[unclevlad]

Well since Mr. P kicked off the NFL thread, I'll get the college thread.

 

Preseason polls are about as full of meaningful comments as afternoon talk radio, but still...the preseason picks are Next Verse, Same as the Rest.  Bama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson.  Hey, maybe one of em won't live up to expectations.  Asking for 2 of em to fall flat...that's a bridge too far.

 

Scary...the very lightweight first week...even called "Week 0" in the schedule on si.com...has 10 games, largely non-entities...and it's Aug. 27th.  GAH!!!!  Not ready for football.  

 

Nevada's actually coming down to play the Aggies that weekend.  No game time listed yet...I'm wondering if the Aggies are hoping to get it picked up.  Hopefully it'll be an evening kickoff;  if it's an afternoon kickoff, the stadium could be dangerously hot.  The seating area is ALL concrete.  (Yeah, it's as attractive a place to watch a game as that sounds like.)  Mid 90s is still quite common.  

The big bonanza is, of course, Labor Day weekend.  Games start Thursday (probably all night games...the Aggies took a paycheck game at Minnesota, 5 days after the season opener...?  No one else has scheduled such a quick turnaround) with more games Friday, and of course the massive slate Saturday.  The NFL has no games, so there's Made For TV matchups Sunday and Monday, I presume ESPN night games.

 

Heh...for grins, SI had a link to another story.  Best team in each state.

 

Quote

New Mexico -- New Mexico: The Lobos weren't good in 2021, but rival New Mexico State was deeply terrible, which led to the end of the Doug Martin era. A 3-9 record for New Mexico in Danny Gonzales' second season feels better by comparison. -- Jeyarajah

 

Ouchhhhh   Not terrible, DEEPLY terrible.  Well, they had 1 decent, freak season where they went 6-6 and won a bowl game...2017.  Almost the only one they made in my lifetime...and I'm retired.  (1960 was the prior one.)  Take out that season, and since 2005 they're a combined 38-145.

 

Yeah.  Deeply terrible.

[unclevlad]

Alabama kicks off the 2020 5th-ranked WR recruit in April.  He goes petulant and transfers...to Texas.  Generally a school where character is a secondary concern at best.

 

Yes, well...Texas has now suspended him.  He was arrested on charges of criminal mischief between $100 and $750...a Class B misdemeanor, that can get you up to 180 days.  

On Bama, he was deep down the depth chart, but considering their receivers, of course he was.  At Texas, he was listed #3.  Makes one think he thought he was getting hosed again...and perhaps now he acted out like a 4 year old.  Yeah, well, there's a pretty fair chance that he won't have to worry about it any more...he might be gone.  And it's a lot less likely someone will give him a *3rd* chance.  Especially if he gets convicted of the full charge.  

[Pariah]

I'm thinking that if he doesn't get a lengthy sentence, he can probably play FCS ball somewhere for a season and transfer.

[unclevlad]

16 minutes ago, Pariah said:

I'm thinking that if he doesn't get a lengthy sentence, he can probably play FCS ball somewhere for a season and transfer.

 

Maybe. but I think FCS coaches are gonna take more convincing before they'd bring him on.  The top-level...those who've earned it, and those who think they're owed it like Texas and Miami...FBS schools are closer to pro organizations...what can a player contribute to the bottom line?  I suspect you're right, that some FCS schools will look at how high a recruit he was, and take the shot...at least some of em.  But if so, his leash is likely to be REALLY short.

 

[Pariah]

1. $75M/year/school, plus revenue from the College Football Playoff, bowl games, and March Madness.

2. The deal does NOT include E$PN.

 

Big Ten reaches seven-year media rights deal with CBS, Fox and NBC for football, basketball through 2029-30

 

Something I read a few days ago suggested that the PAC-(12-2) was looking at something in the range of $30M/year/school, and that if they couldn't get that, the conference should probably just fold.

 

We shall see....

[unclevlad]

NYT points out, tho, that this deal will only exacerbate players' calls for a bigger share of the pie, as this clearly is a pure cash grab for the schools.

[Pariah]

Air Force Unveils Special ‘Space Force’ Unis for Navy Game

 

[Pariah]

I saw this on the Book of Face today:

 

"Surprisingly, Nick Saban has never lost a non-conference road game in his 15 years as head coach at Alabama! If he wins at Texas, his record in such games will rise to an amazing 3-0!"

[Iuz the Evil]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/apptrigger.com/2022/06/25/ea-sports-college-football-summer-2023/amp/
 

I’m so happy. 😂🥲

[Starlord]

8 hours ago, Pariah said:

I saw this on the Book of Face today:

 

"Surprisingly, Nick Saban has never lost a non-conference road game in his 15 years as head coach at Alabama! If he wins at Texas, his record in such games will rise to an amazing 3-0!"

 

...also, not counting postseason games.  Pretty sure he has lost to Utah, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Clemson in the playoffs.

[Pariah]

I read an article the other day ranking the non-conference schedules of every team in the Big XII.

 

Anybody who's surprised that Kansas State has the easiest non-conference schedule, raise your hand.

 

Yeah, I didn't think so.

[Pariah]

There are two college football games on right now. One of them is Austin Peay at Western Kentucky. (Let's go Peay!) The other is Northwestern versus Nebraska in Dublin. (I'm betting on the team with the N on their helmets.)

 

The season doesn't start in earnest until next week, but I'm happy to see college football again.

[unclevlad]

Nebraska coach Scott Frost's job couldn't have been very secure coming into this season.  4 years, combined 15-29;  10-25 in conference play.

 

So today...Nebraska plays a good first half, but gives up a late drive;  Northwestern has a 17-14 halftime lead.  The second half starts out GREAT for the cornheads...force punt, TD, force fumble, TD.  28-17.  Awesome.

 

Then the roof caved in.  A VERY questionable onside kick fails.  NW slams it down the short field.  Nebraska's possessions for the rest of the game:  punt, punt, INT, punt, punt, INT that ended the game, as NW got the go-ahead TD, and ran a pretty good clock-burning drill.  9 plays, 4 minutes, forced Mini Red to burn 2 TOs.  In those 6 drives, they ran only 23 plays total.

 

One can expect mistakes, especially this week, but this is another close loss, and another blown lead.  That's pattern and practice.  It's hard to gauge Northwestern, in that they've been good and bad...10-3, 9-5, 3-9, 7-2, 3-9 the last 5 years.  (One has to wonder about conference scheduling, due to the bloated size of the conference.  There are years when a team can miss most of the better teams, and years when they get overwhelmed.)  But this was a conference loss, and it's another one in the bad pattern that's been Frost's tenure.  And with his record, one can't expect patience from the boosters.

 

I note CBS Sports rates the heat at 5 for Frost...win or be fired.  They call it the hottest seat in the country...only Herm Edwards also gets a 5, for various reasons they mention.  Bleacher Report opines bowl or bust, as does Yahoo Sports.  (They point out that Frost's buyout became much more school-friendly, not a good sign.)

[Pariah]

Haven't grown up in Northern colorado, I have to say that any day that sees Nebraska lose, especially when favored, is a pretty good day.

 

Meanwhile, Utah State trails UConn 14-0 after the first quarter. Honestly, I'm not sure how many times UConn scored as many as 14 in an entire game last year. They were arguably the worst team in the country, with their only win coming against FCS Yale.

 

Utah State is the defending Mountain West Conference champions. So far, there's sure not playing like it.

 

Edit: The Aggies just scored to cut the deficit to 14-7. They may yet have life.

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, Pariah said:

Haven't grown up in Northern colorado, I have to say that any day that sees Nebraska lose, especially when favored, is a pretty good day.

 

Meanwhile, Utah State trails UConn 14-0 after the first quarter. Honestly, I'm not sure how many times UConn scored as many as 14 in an entire game last year. They were arguably the worst team in the country, with their only win coming against FCS Yale.

 

Utah State is the defending Mountain West Conference champions. So far, there's sure not playing like it.

 

Edit: The Aggies just scored to cut the deficit to 14-7. They may yet have life.

 

Went to school in Boulder back in the Big 8 days.  HATED Nebraska.  Partly because they beat us like a drum...we'd hang with Oklahoma some years before getting waxed, but Nebraska games were a disaster.  But more...second worst fans I remember.  LSU showed up freshman year;  they were worse.  Then Nebraska.  So, yeah, they're not exactly on my favorites list.  And it's been a source of continual amusement that they fire Frank Solich, who gets them into the final poll top-10 3 times...and never get close.  4 or more losses every year, only marginally relevant nationally one time.  And then of course, they bail...

 

And during Covid, Frost was a jerk.

 

So...yeah, it's almost as good when they lose as when the Cowboys do.

 

Utah State 31, NoConn(test) 20, 6 minutes left.  In the words of your hero, Mr. P....

 

R

 

e

 

l

 

a

 

x

 

 

<ducks the barrage and flees....>

[novi]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-should-the-big-ten-expand-next-we-crunched-the-numbers/

 

I thought this was an interesting analysis of how various schools stand as candidates for future Big Ten expansion.  Not that I'm particularly enthused at further expansion, but at this point, it seems almost inevitable that the Big Ten and SEC are looking to expand to 20-24 teams each before they leave the NCAA.  It'll be interesting to see how accurate this article is in 10 years time.

 

Along those lines, does the Pac-X manage to recover to to be a member of the Power 5?  Or is the future going to be the Power 4 and the Group of 6?

[unclevlad]

I'd want to re-examine every conference, should things actually settle down for a few years, but the path if the SEC and Big 10 stay within the NCAA framework, appears to be the SEC and Big 10 at the top, the ACC and Big 12 *well* below them, and a few others...I don't know how many strong-ish conferences will be left after poaching.  The Pac X is in this mix;  they might become like C-USA, with "best of the rest" status.  It's also possible that the Big 12 falls to this level...so it might well be the Super 2 and Group of 3, with the current Group of 5 completely discounted.  As I noted, that might depend on how badly the Pac, Big 12, and possibly ACC fare.  (Yeah, I get Clemson, but they're also an outlier, in that no one else in the ACC is above decent in football, and it's never seemed that they will get and stay there.  The ACC is basketball first, and they're also really good in many other sports...football is not the elephant in the room at many of them.)

 

Other thoughts:  it's possible that e.g. Rutgers and perhaps Nebraska *leave*.  Or get booted.  Also, given the American Mindset, it seems likely that the SEC and Big 10 will only tighten their grip.  There's a cycle there, as they dominate TV, therefore ratings, therefore bowls, therefore recruiting.  It's not 100%...but the SEC has been the #1 conference for a while, and they're the only conference to get 2 teams into the playoffs in the same year...twice.  Alabama and Georgia each time.  

 

A massive caveat here:  we simply don't know how NIL issues will change the landscape.  

[unclevlad]

Speaking of the SEC and Big 10...

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/college-football-looks-even-more-top-heavy-than-usual-this-year/

[Pariah]

The PAC-whatever can't be happy about this...

 

Big 12 opens media rights negotiations ahead of schedule

 

This is pretty clearly an attempt to undercut the PAC. If the Big XII can negotiate a notably better offer than what the PAC is working on right now, it could conceivably swing some schools (e.g., Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado) over to their side. Both conferences are hurting with recent defections (Texas and Oklahoma, USC and UCLA), so some cannibalism is to be expected. 

 

The numbers I've seen in both cases are in the $30-35M/school/year range. By comparison, the B1G's recently-finalized deal is $75M/school/year.

 

Some folks in the PAC have apparently made overtures about raiding the Big XII, but I don't know how serious (or even viable) such a plan would be.

[Pariah]

Having lived in West Virginia for two years, including three months in Morgantown, I'm pretty excited for tonight's renewal of the Backyard Brawl between WVU and Pitt. The game is in Pittsburgh, and Panthers are favored by 7.5.  

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

The Gators enter the season unranked, but there is some respect out there. #7 Utah is only a 3 point favorite on opening day. 

[Pariah]

That's because the PAC-1210 perpetually underperforms, while the $EC is perpetually overrated.

[unclevlad]

4 hours ago, Pariah said:

The PAC-whatever can't be happy about this...

 

Big 12 opens media rights negotiations ahead of schedule

 

This is pretty clearly an attempt to undercut the PAC. If the Big XII can negotiate a notably better offer than what the PAC is working on right now, it could conceivably swing some schools (e.g., Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado) over to their side. Both conferences are hurting with recent defections (Texas and Oklahoma, USC and UCLA), so some cannibalism is to be expected. 

 

The numbers I've seen in both cases are in the $30-35M/school/year range. By comparison, the B1G's recently-finalized deal is $75M/school/year.

 

Some folks in the PAC have apparently made overtures about raiding the Big XII, but I don't know how serious (or even viable) such a plan would be.

 

Apropos of the state of football outside the SEC and Bloated 10
 

Quote

And our grande armee is dressed in rags
A frozen starving beggar band
Like rats we steal each other's scraps
Fall to fighting hand to hand 

 

So it's absolutely no surprise.  The Mini 12 and Pac X are both hanging by a thread over the abyss of being folded in with the Group of 5...

 

Yeah, in some ways, tonight's the real start of the season.  Pitt-WVU is one of the old rivalry games that was a shame to lose.  16 games total, altho some are FBS vs. WHO?  Fresno State's playing one of the Cal Poly's...San Luis Obispo.  A school where the sports are scattered among multiple leagues...not meant as a dig, but schools in this position are rarely powerhouses, particularly in football.  Minnesota's throwing NMSU a wad of cash...largely due to the fact that NMSU's coach used to be at Minnesota, but had to leave due to significant health issues.  Oh, the joy of connections. 

[Pariah]

2 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

Apropos of the state of football outside the SEC and Bloated 10

 

Nice use of Mark Knopfler, by the way. 

 

 

2 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

Pitt-WVU is one of the old rivalry games that was a shame to lose. 

 

There are a lot of old rivalry games that have now gone the way of the dodo. Locally, Utah-Utah State is largely a thing of the past, at least in football. BYU-Utah isn't what it used to be, due partly to changes in conference affiliations and partly to BYU choking away games for over a decade.  Colorado-Kansas State used to be the big game to determine who would finish dead last in the Big 8. Oklahoma-Nebraska, Texas-Texas A&M, Kansas-Missouri (where Mizzou fans would chant "AHAB"), TCU-SMU, Colorado-Nebraska (once CU actually started winning once in a while), the list goes on. The 'new' rivalries are largely hollow. Utah-Colorado is never going to be a big deal, no matter how the PAC tries to push it. BYU-Boise State has become something of a thing, I suppose. But other than maybe TCU, with whom they were in both the old WAC and the Mountain West, BYU has no obvious rivals in the Big XII. 

 

Oh, well, everyone's making more money now, hey? Cyndi Lauper was right. Money changes everything.

[unclevlad]

19 minutes ago, Pariah said:

 

Nice use of Mark Knopfler, by the way. 

 

 

If I was offered a trip back in time to be at one thing, one event...purely as a spectator.  Gibson Theater, 2006, for what became Real Live Roadrunning, would be WAY up there.  Along with Live Aid at Wembley in '85 for Queen's set.  Pretty sure those are 1 and 2.  Not Woodstock so much, as that was far more spread out.