How long does tech last after The End?

[cyst13]

This question is specific to my campaign but should be of interest to most GMs of PA games. My setting is Portland, OR, 40 years post-apocalypse (PA). The apoc came in the form of a virus that killed off 99.9% of the human population over the course of the year 2015 AD.

 

My primary concern is whether any wind turbines or solar panels would still be functional. Assume it is at least possible that some one could have been doing the sort of regular maintenance spelled out in the owner's manual, but nothing more. Spare parts would be unavailable. Would any of these devices be capable of producing electricity in the year 2055?

 

Corrolary: would it be possible for fully electric cars (like the ones currently in production) to survive 40 yrs, assuming some electricity generation is still available. How long can an electric car's battery last if it is used everyday? How long would it last if were sitting unused in a protected garage? How long can an electric car in operation be used before it begins to require parts replacement?

 

Third: Some mention of how long contemporary firearms would survive in usuable condition would also help.

[Curufea]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

I highly doubt it - most modern devices require a high level of infrastructure to maintain.

Solar panels - 10 to 20 years.

Modern cars without maintenance - I'd give them 5 years max.

[concord]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

Scavenging and warehousing could give a very large supply of parts for a wide variety of technical items... just something to consider...

[ghost-angel]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

PAH p60-61 has a timeline that's a generalized rule of thumb for how long it takes things to break down.

 

 

A good general rules of thumb: an object with moving parts will not last too long. Some things are measured in hours of operation, some in other increments.

 

Things with non-moving parts could last longer, but all things break down. For instance, most LCDs only have a life of about 30,000 Operational Hours before they start to breakdown without replacements/upgrades.

[mallet]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

But if you need these things to still be working in 2055 just say that over the next few years (between 2007 and 2015) that there were some major technological breakthroughs that would make these devices last longer.

 

And, if you really want, you could somehow tie in these breakthroughs to what caused the virus to be released in the first place.

[Toadmaster]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

Wind turbines, possibly, you say no spare parts but in reality you have lots of spare parts in the other wind turbines.

 

If the society planned for it they could have taken many out of service for parts (99.9% died so electricity demand should be similarly reduced).

 

Solar panels, I'm not sure. There are no moving parts so it seems likely but don't really know.

 

Electric cars, maybe, the current crop, probably not. They are impractical now and I doubt they could survive long without modern support. However simple electric vehicles like golf carts, then maybe. Lead acid batteries are fairly simple so it is beleivable that the community could make them.

 

As long as they recieved basic maintainance (oiled, kept in a dry location etc) then firearms will last a long time. 20-50 years is no problem there are plenty of WW1 & 2 era weapons still in use. When the US military replaced the Colt M1911A1 pistol with the Beretta M92 many had been in continuous military service for 50+ years. There are many 100+ year old weapons in usable condition and many still get a fair amount of range time.

[Ian Mackinder]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

Whilst not actually asked about (and it may be that cyst13 already knows this), I would point out that stored petroleum goes "off". As I understand it, the modern stuff lasts 6-12 months at best. Older stores (fewer additives, less refined) might last longer, but probably not forty-odd years.

 

On the upside, the original concept for the diesel engine was as an internal combustion engine that would run on just about anything (diesel oil is actually the leftover of petroleum refining). A suitably skilled mechanic might possibly rig up an older model diesel engine to run on, say, vegetable oil.

[Ian Mackinder]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

But if you need these things to still be working in 2055 just say that over the next few years (between 2007 and 2015) that there were some major technological breakthroughs that would make these devices last longer.

 

Personally, I doubt it. Consider the following pairs as extreme examples. Which of these are more likely to continue operating with little more than blacksmiths' tools and some improvization? A Ferrari Testarossa or a Ford Model-T? A 747 or a Ju-52? An M-1 Abrams or a Sherman tank? A nuclear sub or the USS Consitiution?

[McCoy]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

The lifetime of the battery stack (amd it's replacement cost) is why I haven't bought an electric car. I live in an area where a car battery with a 5 year warrentee has to be replaced every three years.

 

As mentioned above, diesel is probably going to be your most durable and reliable tech. Figure on doubling your crop land and adding an oilseed crop (such as hemp).

 

On the upside, current car batteries should last indefinitely until the sulphuric acid is added for the first time. Rechargeable batteries can be stored indefinitely until they are charged for the first time.

[BoneDaddy]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

There are plenty of cars in Cuba that suggest that regular mintenance and scavenged parts can keep a vehicle running for quite some time.

 

As for wind turbines, this has been done before, believe it or not. The wind power generation section of Distributed Energy Systems used to be called Northern Power, and they got their start in the 1970s by rehabbing windmills from the midwest farms from the 1930s. Windpower is old school, particularly for power generation.

 

Additionally, the mechanics of a wind turbine are easy - a fan, a transmission, a coil of conductive wire, some magnets, and you're in business. A propellor and alternator salvaged from a cessna, combined with the gearing (and hell the whole damned frame) from any ten speed, and you have 12 volts pumping no problem, which is plenty to light your LEDs, which will be all that works in terms of electric lights anymore.

 

1. Man invents

2. Electricity generation is really very simple.

 

The rest of it is harder, but getting juice is no problem.

[megaplayboy]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

This reminds me of a random thought I had once regarding dumping the campaign's smartest villain into prehistory, and seeing how long it would take him to build a time machine to come back...

 

I figure he gets the food gathering down pat pretty quickly, then he's smelting metals, building a windmill for some basic electricity generation, and has made it to the early industrial era within a month at the latest. If he can build a powered vehicle, he can probably get his time machine built within a year, if I stretch suspension of disbelief a tad.

 

But, realistically though, if you had one polymath wake up into a world devoid of tech, how long might it take them to restore major tech items to operation?

[Kaeto]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

Whilst not actually asked about (and it may be that cyst13 already knows this), I would point out that stored petroleum goes "off". As I understand it, the modern stuff lasts 6-12 months at best. Older stores (fewer additives, less refined) might last longer, but probably not forty-odd years.

 

On the upside, the original concept for the diesel engine was as an internal combustion engine that would run on just about anything (diesel oil is actually the leftover of petroleum refining). A suitably skilled mechanic might possibly rig up an older model diesel engine to run on, say, vegetable oil.

 

No real rigging needed for a diesel to run on vegetable oil. My uncle runs his diesel farm tractor on nothing but used fryer oil that one of his daughters brings him from the greasy spoon she works at.

All he does is run it through a filter so he has no particles in it.

[Bygoneyrs]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

My advice to you if you wanted to have some working tech still arround, simply state that prior to the PA causing event, that there were a few key tech advances that were developed and in the process of being distributed throughout standard day to day tech. Maybe such things as a Super Plastic that had a extremely high strength, maybe a metal alloy too that was harder than anything currently out there and extremely light as well as resistance to rusting. Also maybe a few other electronics break-throughs that specifically increased both electronic performance and increasing a items usable lifetime.

 

So not everything was built with these new resources, but those that were are seemingly still working or repairable to service. Hey remember this is a "Fantasy" based game regardless and one needs their flashy tech to play with. Man this reminds me so much of Gamma World it isn't even funny...LOL!!!

 

Penn

[BlackSword]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

But' date=' realistically though, if you had one polymath wake up into a world devoid of tech, how long might it take them to restore major tech items to operation?[/quote']

I think the real difficulty is trying to replicate the last (~)50 years. Making an integrated circuit is not something you can do over a campfire. You can probably make vacuum tubes and other electrical components, but size and power requirements will be a limiting factor.

[megaplayboy]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

I think the real difficulty is trying to replicate the last (~)50 years. Making an integrated circuit is not something you can do over a campfire. You can probably make vacuum tubes and other electrical components' date=' but size and power requirements will be a limiting factor.[/quote']

 

well, first they'd need to make a microscope, then they'd need to figure out how to make the machining process smaller...

[Cancer]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

Assuming you have a machine shop ... admittedly a major if, but it doesn't take that much of one ... you can produce working steam engines reasonably easily. And there the fuel is far less relevant; scrap wood from old buildings can work. Any sort of power engine is enough to make a major difference in terms of fabricating more machinery and keeping your tech level from falling below that of, say, 1900.

[AmadanNaBriona]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

Assuming you have a machine shop ... admittedly a major if' date=' but it doesn't take that much of one ... you can produce working steam engines reasonably easily. And there the fuel is far less relevant; scrap wood from old buildings can work. Any sort of power engine is enough to make a major difference in terms of fabricating more machinery and keeping your tech level from falling below that of, say, 1900.[/quote']

 

Yep, a diesel 220 generator will power a shop nicely.

 

I generally assume that post apoc tech levels will stabilize at about the same level you do, for the same reasons. Barring a massive loss of information, we're likely to hold onto electricity.... that genie ain't going back in the bottle, it's just too easy to produce.

[megaplayboy]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

Yep, a diesel 220 generator will power a shop nicely.

 

I generally assume that post apoc tech levels will stabilize at about the same level you do, for the same reasons. Barring a massive loss of information, we're likely to hold onto electricity.... that genie ain't going back in the bottle, it's just too easy to produce.

 

And once you get electricity back, you begin to get communications back.

 

Of course, Fighter jets are pretty much useless junk after 40-50 years, if they haven't been maintained. Ironically, an older, less complicated prop fighter might be easier to restore. Don't know about most military ground vehicles, but their ammo would likely be unusable. Everyone would have to cast their own bullets, too.

[AmadanNaBriona]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

And once you get electricity back, you begin to get communications back.

 

Of course, Fighter jets are pretty much useless junk after 40-50 years, if they haven't been maintained. Ironically, an older, less complicated prop fighter might be easier to restore. Don't know about most military ground vehicles, but their ammo would likely be unusable. Everyone would have to cast their own bullets, too.

 

Yeah, in the last PA game I ran the majority of airpower being used 75 years post Crash were based on turn of the century tech, with modern twists. Dirigibles & other Airships, Ultralights, Gliders, Autogyros, and the occasional prop plane.

 

Guns ran the breadth of 19th C tech... Muzzleloaders for most utilitarian purposes, because any village blacksmith can make one, with mechanical action guns (revolver, pump, bolt or lever actions) pretty common for more militant applications.

Heavy weapons were mostly cannon, mortars, direct fire rockets, and Gatling-style rotary guns, some electrically driven (I was surprised to discover that the power requirements for such are a lot lower than I thought).

Alternate propellants are also an option. I did a fair bit with Airguns and calcium carbide propelled weapons, similar to the Pumpkin' chuckin' cannons or potato guns, but firing homemade ordinance loads (mustard gas, for instance)

[Wyrm Ouroboros]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

See my commentary re: the series 'Dies the Fire' in the 'How many acres to feed?' thread.

[Badger]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

I highly doubt it - most modern devices require a high level of infrastructure to maintain.

Solar panels - 10 to 20 years.

Modern cars without maintenance - I'd give them 5 years max.

 

Actually, given my own experience. Modern cars would be useless after a semi-rough winter. The last car I had before my current one would be virtually imposible to start if I hadnt started it up for 5 days. So, any older cars would be useless come spring I think.

[CorPse]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

http://www.herogames.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59745

[KA.]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

This may sound like a cop-out, but basically it sounds like a case could be made for as much, or as little, leftover tech as suits your vision of the game.

Obviously there will be some changes, or you wouldn't be playing a PA genre (assuming that is what you want), but unless the virus in question targets everyone who is able to read or has an IQ above 60, it would not be that hard to get tech going again.

 

One effect of such a massive drain on the population would be huge amounts of spare parts/raw materials for those left behind.

 

You may want to build in some other disaster/war etc, to explain why nobody was (or more pointedly why everyone wasn't) striving to maintain the tech they had at the point of the disaster.

 

One idea, off the top of my head, suspended animation.

 

At some point before everyone is dead, a scientist figures out that the only way to avoid dying from the plague is to be placed in a cryogenic vault until the disease dies off and all the corpses are totally decomposed, along with any animals affected.

(around 40 years)

These are built in a race against time, and every resource is put into creating the vaults and the nuclear power plants that will keep them running.

 

The plan works fairly well, many survive, but in the meantime everything else has gone to ruin.

 

At the point that the vaults automatically open, it is found that the reactors must undergo a crash shutdown, which may make it impossible to restart them in the future.

 

So, you have live humans in an environment where almost everything is in ruins and must be rebuilt from scratch.

 

Just an idea,

 

KA.

[Lawnmower Boy]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

There's an argument in economics (but Vernor Vinge does it much better, so read A Deepness in the Sky instead) that technology is just an epiphenomena of the division of labour. More people equals more specialists equals more elaborate text. Braniac would end up being a very intelligent caveman, if only because of the amount of time required to learn what the arsenic fraction is in the local copper deposit, finding kaolin for his blast furnace and so on blah blah.

With legacy technology things are a tiny bit more complicated. Light bulbs are a lot harder to make than windmills, which is why historically people used windmills to pump water to irrigate land to produce more oilseed (while hemp grows well in the Northwest I would recomend sunflowers as they produce better seedcake) etc to make more oil to light more lamps. But if you have the bulbs sitting around it is a very different matter.

[cyst13]

Re: How long does tech last after The End?

 

My thinking on humanity's ability to produce technology is that it requires a critical mass of population. If human population is reduced to a few million worldwide, there simply won't be enough people left to operate and manage all the extraction, production, distribution, and retail organizations necessary to maintain a high level of tech in society. Could be wrong about this, tho. Any thoughts?