Ranxerox Posted November 10, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline After 2200. That's more an issue about psychogenesis (personality installation) than creation of an intact human body' date=' IMO.[/quote'] I think you are talking about 'clones' like in Paranoia which are effectively 'reboots'. But to use as instant descendants' date=' probably not long after 2030 (maybe 2040, 2050)[/quote'] Yes I meant more along the lines of identical twins born 40 years apart than actual replacements. However, since I didn't specify the fault for any misunderstanding is mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranxerox Posted November 10, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline A few thoughts: Medicine: 1st functional artificial ear 1st functional artificial eye 1st whole-body transplant (I assume the sex changes you're referring to in your list refer to having full fertility?) General Technology 1st fully-functional android (bipedal, self-contained with enough power for a full day) 1st man-portable energy weapon Evacuated Tube Transport system So, is anybody going to take a stab at guesstimating these events? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobGreenwade Posted November 10, 2010 Report Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline So' date=' is anybody going to take a stab at guesstimating these events?[/quote']Personally, I'd call the android for 2040, and the energy weapon for around 2150. The ETT system depends more on politics than on technology (we actually have most if not all of the needed technology right now). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starcloud Posted November 10, 2010 Report Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline The ETT thing... yeah, never happen on Earth. It needs to be, and remain, airtight in order to function. Considering how poorly oil company pipelines are maintained, I wouldn't expect a boondoggle like the ETT to work in more than a very limited, purpose-built test community. And it is remarkably vulnerable to external events, like earthquakes or sabotage. On the Moon? Easily done once you have the construction capability. On Mars? Unneeded except for inter-dome travel, but might not be airtight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
megaplayboy Posted November 10, 2010 Report Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline Self-Driving cars: 2040 (or earlier) Self-Driving flying cars: 2060 1st functional android: 2050 (or earlier) 1st "fully functional" android: 2080 1st full-function, indistinguishable android: 2100 One thing I thought was a bit of a cop-out in Alien Wars, Terran Empire and Galactic Champions: they didn't tell you what human life expectancy was. Either 130 years is an absolute barrier, like the speed of light, or it isn't, in which case life expectancy should be dramatically longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranxerox Posted November 11, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline Self-Driving cars: 2040 (or earlier) One thing I thought was a bit of a cop-out in Alien Wars, Terran Empire and Galactic Champions: they didn't tell you what human life expectancy was. Either 130 years is an absolute barrier, like the speed of light, or it isn't, in which case life expectancy should be dramatically longer. I would like to take a stab at this one. I think that in the next 20 years, fueled by demand from aging boomer, we are going see a lot of research into preventing and reversing Alzheimer's and dementia. The pace of science being what it is the fruit of this research may arrive to late for most boomers but is likely to be enjoyed by us generation x types. This would mainly be in the form of slowing down the some of the effects of aging on the brain. Actual neural regeneration as opposed to just minimizing damage is something I could see showing up around 2060. Even then it might take another 40 years or so to work out more serious side effects. Combine this technology with organ cloning or complete body replacement and possible longevity could go far beyond 130 years, but this is only if you can afford such expensive procedures. Otherwise, 130 years of life might be about as far as a body can carry us without expensive replacement parts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Weapon Posted November 13, 2010 Report Share Posted November 13, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline One thing, asteroid colonies before Martian ones. They don't need to withstand the stress of reentry, they're closer, you don't need high acceleration except to leave them, the resources are closer to the surface you can mine down deeper without worrying about tunnel collapse (on the bigger ones obviously) and they're even good for providing feul for the Martial colonisation attempts. All you need is power and some ice and you get LOX and liquid H2. It's already halfway there to Mars so you don't have to accelerate it as much as the feul you started from Earth with. Big savings. [edit I'm completely wrong on this, must have been tired when I posted] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobGreenwade Posted November 13, 2010 Report Share Posted November 13, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline One thing' date=' asteroid colonies before Martian ones. They don't need to withstand the stress of reentry, they're closer, you don't need high acceleration except to leave them, the resources are closer to the surface you can mine down deeper without worrying about tunnel collapse (on the bigger ones obviously) and they're even good for providing feul for the Martial colonisation attempts. All you need is power and some ice and you get LOX and liquid H2. It's already halfway there to Mars so you don't have to accelerate it as much as the feul you started from Earth with. Big savings.[/quote']With this last part, you're saying that when you're at Mars, you're halfway to the asteroid belt, right? It looks like you're saying the asteroids are halfway to Mars, but the asteroid belt is outside Mars' orbit. Also, gravity on most asteroids is too negligible for ongoing colonies, at least until something can be done about the ill health effects of microgravity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted November 13, 2010 Report Share Posted November 13, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline Might be he's referring to the near-Earth asteroids. Plus, since the asteroids have less gravity it's far cheaper, energy-wise, to lift off from them -- need to carry less fuel = larger payload. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranxerox Posted November 14, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline With this last part, you're saying that when you're at Mars, you're halfway to the asteroid belt, right? It looks like you're saying the asteroids are halfway to Mars, but the asteroid belt is outside Mars' orbit. Also, gravity on most asteroids is too negligible for ongoing colonies, at least until something can be done about the ill health effects of microgravity. Is there some reason that a group of small asteroids could not be tethered into a circle and the circle spun for centripetal artificial gravity? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starcloud Posted November 14, 2010 Report Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline I'd hate to have to calculate and develop a station-keeping system for a series of asteroids off of a tethered non-rigid hub. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted November 14, 2010 Report Share Posted November 14, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline Is there some reason that a group of small asteroids could not be tethered into a circle and the circle spun for centripetal artificial gravity? I don't have any actual numbers, but you'd have to find some pretty rare asteroids. Many are just heaps of gravel, and would disintegrate if spun at any appreciable velocity. And you'd have to maneuver the asteroids together, and it would be just as easy to ship them off to Earth orbit. But for turning an asteroid into a habitat, see Cole habitat or Bubbleworld. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranxerox Posted November 16, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline I'd hate to have to calculate and develop a station-keeping system for a series of asteroids off of a tethered non-rigid hub. IIRC, centripetal acceleration is pretty straight forward. If you can get there center of gravity equal distances from the the center of the circle and get the circle spinning (don't ask me how you accomplish this feat) they should maintain there separation pretty well. However, if I am under estimating the problem you could find two asteroids of roughly equal mass and tether them together in one giant spinning bolo and get your artificial gravity that way. I don't have any actual numbers, but you'd have to find some pretty rare asteroids. Many are just heaps of gravel, and would disintegrate if spun at any appreciable velocity. And you'd have to maneuver the asteroids together, and it would be just as easy to ship them off to Earth orbit. But for turning an asteroid into a habitat, see Cole habitat or Bubbleworld. Well you can't ship them off to Earth orbit very easily if you are starting off in the asteroid belt. Though the question of whether or not it is reasonable to expect the asteroids or any available material for the tether to withstand the forces involved in bearing the strain of such a set-up is something I was wondering. Thanks for introducing me to Bubbleworlds. They are very cool, but they seem post 2200 to me. Of course others might disagree with that assessment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted November 16, 2010 Report Share Posted November 16, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline A clarification: I was on about near-Earth asteroids there, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsatow Posted November 20, 2010 Report Share Posted November 20, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline Strange under technology I would have assumed the distinction between The first fully learning capable AI. The first emotionally aware AI. The first man portable personal energy weapon that is not a flame thrower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranxerox Posted November 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline I'm not real sure what you mean by first fully learning capable AI and first emotionally aware AI. Currently, there are tons of programs out there that overtime learn to be be better at the specific thing that they are programed to do such as speech recognition, hand writing analysis or challenging players in a game. This is a nifty programming feature but that is all that it is. In order for a program to achieve AI status IMO it would need to look beyond performing some task and actively be trying (with at least some success) to comprehend the world. This is something that IMHO can't happen without self awareness of one self a something that is both part of the world and separate from the other parts. The reason that I did not originally ask about the 1st man portable energy weapon is because my timeline focuses on from 2080 to 2200, and based on the Active Denial System and other breakthroughs in energy weapons I am confident we will have man portable energy weapons prior to 2080. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clonus Posted November 21, 2010 Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline I'm not real sure what you mean by first fully learning capable AI and first emotionally aware AI. Currently, there are tons of programs out there that overtime learn to be be better at the specific thing that they are programed to do such as speech recognition, hand writing analysis or challenging players in a game. This is a nifty programming feature but that is all that it is. In order for a program to achieve AI status IMO it would need to look beyond performing some task and actively be trying (with at least some success) to comprehend the world. This is something that IMHO can't happen without self awareness of one self a something that is both part of the world and separate from the other parts. The reason that I did not originally ask about the 1st man portable energy weapon is because my timeline focuses on from 2080 to 2200, and based on the Active Denial System and other breakthroughs in energy weapons I am confident we will have man portable energy weapons prior to 2080. The problem is not building the man portable weapon. It's building the man portable power source for the weapon. I wouldn't be surprised if that came right at the start of the Solar Hero era particularly if you are sticking to the timeline in which it succeeds a cyberpunk era. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranxerox Posted November 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2010 Re: Solar Hero timeline That's a good point about the power source. However, building better batteries is the current holy grail of technological development, and with all the money going into battery research I think we will have one up to the task in less than 70 years. Yes, I'm sticking with the Solar Hero being proceeded by Cyber Hero but I don't see this as a problem. Yes, energy weapons aren't normally a part of the cyberpunk tropes but few cyberpunk stories are set in 2065. Late cyberpunk is a somewhat under explored genre but can include androids, rogue AIs and energy weapons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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