In other news...

[Cygnia]

They better charge whoever set up the SWATting with manslaughter too.

[Christopher]

2 hours ago, Cygnia said:

They better charge whoever set up the SWATting with manslaughter too.

How about they instead stop the Policing from randomly shooting people?

 

I mean you reached the point where it became likely that someone is getting shoot by the police. That is some seriously fucked up situation.

 

Calling the Police should have less likelyhood to kill someone then driving drunk or over a red light.

[Sociotard]

Its a very difficult feedback loop.  Police in the United States are more likely to kill people, innocent or otherwise, than in other countries. This is because Police are more likely to be killed themselves. In 2016, 56 officers were killed in the line of duty. in Germany, it was 1. Even accounting for the US being 3.9 times the size of Germany, we see that a cop in the US is 14 times more likely to be killed than a cop in Germany. Now there are other factors, like the way German cops get more training than American ones, and especially more in the not-shooting parts.  But policing in the US is more dangerous than policing in Germany, and so our police are more likely to go in hot.

 

Like I said, a feedback loop. Police are more likely to be killed, so they go in more ready for violence. So criminals are more likely to initiate violence. So cops are more likely to be violent.

 

This goes back to our 2nd amendment issue.  There is no appetite in the US to repeal or amend that one.  So we get these feedback loops.  More guns mean more likelihood of gun violence, which makes people more likely to want to prepare for gun violence.

[Pattern Ghost]

1 hour ago, Sociotard said:

More guns mean more likelihood of gun violence,

 

Then how does that explain the decline in gun violence since the 90s? I think we can't discount the influence of the 24 hour news cycle. People hear about more incidents, even though there are less of them, because they have more access to information, leading to an impression that we live in dangerous times. The increase of mass shooting incidents adds to this impression,  even though the overall numbers are down.

 

I do agree that many police shootings are driven by fear, and I believe US police training is more fear-based than in other countries. I think that training bleeds over into their soft skills training, and that many of our police are unskilled in deescalating problems.

[Badger]

Ironically, a high speed chase did go by my house around 10:30 tonight (2 police cars were following so it likely was more than run of the mill speeding).  Don't know how it turned out though (more worried for the oncoming drivers because all 3 cars sounded like they were pretty fast***)

 

 

***Ironically, until about 5-10 years ago, there was a sharp curve at the bottom of the road, but the road crew widened the road (and made that curve less sharp), otherwise at that speed he would have flew into the little creek when he got down there, probably bouncing off a tree in the process (it was also somewhat heavily wooded until then)

[Old Man]

 

...and then the crocs would do the rest, right?

[Badger]

it's VA, too northern for crocs.  

 

(especially considering we are in the midst of a 3-day weekend where we wont get above freezing*)

 

*and I am reluctant to get more than 8 feet from the heater at night unless to go to the bathroom

[Bazza]

Of course...this is how Australia trains its cops...er crocs. 

[Ternaugh]

11 hours ago, Pattern Ghost said:

 

Then how does that explain the decline in gun violence since the 90s? I think we can't discount the influence of the 24 hour news cycle. People hear about more incidents, even though there are less of them, because they have more access to information, leading to an impression that we live in dangerous times. The increase of mass shooting incidents adds to this impression,  even though the overall numbers are down.

 

I do agree that many police shootings are driven by fear, and I believe US police training is more fear-based than in other countries. I think that training bleeds over into their soft skills training, and that many of our police are unskilled in deescalating problems.

 

Much of the reduction in violent crime in general seems to be related to the removal of lead from gasoline. http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/

[Christopher]

34 minutes ago, Ternaugh said:

 

Much of the reduction in violent crime in general seems to be related to the removal of lead from gasoline. http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/

In Europe there is this new Years tradition of casting lead omens:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molybdomancy

 

Interestingly a EU recently (April) forbade sale of sets for this that contain "more then 4% Lead". Not a big deal, because Tin is avalible as replacement. As are wax and dough.

But in light of this, it does make alot of sense. The last thing we want is posioning the next geenration with lead.

[Sociotard]

13 hours ago, Pattern Ghost said:

 

Then how does that explain the decline in gun violence since the 90s? I think we can't discount the influence of the 24 hour news cycle. People hear about more incidents, even though there are less of them, because they have more access to information, leading to an impression that we live in dangerous times. The increase of mass shooting incidents adds to this impression,  even though the overall numbers are down.

 

I agree that violence, including gun violence and lethal violence, has many factors, from employment to ratio of young-to-old to lead to availability of abortion. I maintain that the availability of guns is one of those factors. When guns are more common, gun death is more likely.

1) yes, a lot of those are suicides.  But they are still deaths, and making suicide a little harder does reduce rate of suicide, because suicide tends to be an impulse thing, not usually a mind-made-up-stop-at -nothing thing.

2) yes, a lot of those are criminals killing other criminals. That's still bad.

3) correlation does not imply causation, but it does indicate they at least have related causes. So, perhaps countries with lots of gun violence have more guns because people there feel like they need them more.  I am open to other explanations.

 

And one more:

I call that "fun with picking your own axis". Yes, this seems to show gun violence going down even as gun ownership goes up. But they used that date range on purpose, and used the vertical axes to make the change starker.  Gun ownership is up, but not dramatically.  It remains in the same range it has since the 70s. Gun deaths are down, but still one of the highest in the world. Again, I concede that there are many factors that lead to gun violence, but it sure looks like prevalence of guns is one of those.

[megaplayboy]

Iranian protesters are burning Muslim seminaries and calling for the overthrow of the Islamic regime.  That seems...kind of significant.  

[Christopher]

46 minutes ago, Sociotard said:

3) correlation does not imply causation, but it does indicate they at least have related causes. So, perhaps countries with lots of gun violence have more guns because people there feel like they need them more.  I am open to other explanations.

"We need more guns to protect us from all those madmen with guns."

 

28 minutes ago, megaplayboy said:

Iranian protesters are burning Muslim seminaries and calling for the overthrow of the Islamic regime.  That seems...kind of significant.  

Informations are pretty hard to come by. There are confirmed reports about 2 dead demonstrants. But not much else.

[Pattern Ghost]

2 hours ago, Sociotard said:

I agree that violence, including gun violence and lethal violence, has many factors, from employment to ratio of young-to-old to lead to availability of abortion. I maintain that the availability of guns is one of those factors. When guns are more common, gun death is more likely.

 

Thanks for the detailed response. I think my main objection was that your original statement was a bit of an oversimplification, which you've certainly addressed.

 

2 hours ago, Sociotard said:

1) yes, a lot of those are suicides.  But they are still deaths, and making suicide a little harder does reduce rate of suicide, because suicide tends to be an impulse thing, not usually a mind-made-up-stop-at -nothing thing.

 

I discount suicide where the victim doesn't harm anyone else directly (a lot of indirect harm is done on both a personal and societal level, I'd think), to the extent that gun control advocates frequently lump those total numbers in as "murders" rather than "homicides," along with police shootings, self defense shootings, etc. I don't know how much suicide is an impulse thing. I've known several people who have attempted suicide, and have had recurring suicide prevention training, and it seems to me that suicides often have a long build up time. I agree that it's probable that the availability of guns has an impact on the rate, but I don't know that it's measurable. I think other factors outweigh availability of guns, though.

 

2 hours ago, Sociotard said:

2) yes, a lot of those are criminals killing other criminals. That's still bad.

 

I'm not sure if we have good numbers on that one, really. There were two prison studies that showed most of the violent crime in their populations were criminal to criminal, and then another study that was more recent saying the opposite. If criminals are killing (or just shooting at) other criminals in public places, then it's definitely having an impact on public safety, so yes, still bad.

 

2 hours ago, Sociotard said:

3) correlation does not imply causation, but it does indicate they at least have related causes. So, perhaps countries with lots of gun violence have more guns because people there feel like they need them more.  I am open to other explanations.

 

The first sentence doesn't agree with itself. I think the key here to the second sentence is the word "feels." People make most major decisions based more on emotion than logic. I learned this both in economics and in sales training. IMO, people are buying more guns because they're being scared more, not because the US is a particularly dangerous place. You'd think we live in some kind of third world hellhole if you listen to some people on both sides of the debate, and that's far from true.

 

 

[Christopher]

3 hours ago, megaplayboy said:

Iranian protesters are burning Muslim seminaries and calling for the overthrow of the Islamic regime.  That seems...kind of significant.  

 

2 hours ago, Christopher said:

Informations are pretty hard to come by. There are confirmed reports about 2 dead demonstrants. But not much else.

I got some new News on local media:

- up to 200 have been arrested

- President Rouhani spoke out:

 - he slammed Trump because he called Iranians "Terrorists" and now talks about Human Rights

 - he claims "Demonstrations are not illegal, as long as they are peacefull".

Apparently "Unrests" like in Hamburg during G-20 are what he claims is happening.

[Christopher]

According to the pirvate "Aviation Safety Network" 2017 was "the safest year for passenger Transport".

32 people died aboard Machines.

35 on the ground.

 

2016 it was apparently 303 deaths.

 

In related news:

12 people died in a Plane Crash on Costa Rica. The news reached me on 1.1.2018, 1:55.

It looks like the year is not wasting time. And 2017 might have been "the lowest value" for a time.

[death tribble]

Technically the Costa Rica crash is 2017. As is the crash in Australia that killed 6. But it is still a good year for plane safety. Below 100.

[Christopher]

8 minutes ago, death tribble said:

Technically the Costa Rica crash is 2017. As is the crash in Australia that killed 6. But it is still a good year for plane safety. Below 100.

It depends wich counting you use. The agency/database in question propably flipped on Netherlandic Newyear. Wich is pretty close to mine (german).

[death tribble]

It was still 2017 in Costa Rica which is what I would count.

[Christopher]

2 hours ago, death tribble said:

It was still 2017 in Costa Rica which is what I would count.

I would just continue to use whatever those statisticians have used since the Database was created,.

[megaplayboy]

4 hours ago, Christopher said:

According to the pirvate "Aviation Safety Network" 2017 was "the safest year for passenger Transport".

32 people died aboard Machines.

35 on the ground.

 

2016 it was apparently 303 deaths.

 

In related news:

12 people died in a Plane Crash on Costa Rica. The news reached me on 1.1.2018, 1:55.

It looks like the year is not wasting time. And 2017 might have been "the lowest value" for a time.

The weirdest thing is, my friend works as a home health aide for the parents/grandparents of the family of 5(their son, his wife, their 3 grandchildren) who died in that crash.  

[Sociotard]

Why American cops tend to shoot first, Exhibit A: https://www.vox.com/latest-news/2017/12/31/16835540/colorado-shooting-what-we-know-so-far

[Michael Hopcroft]

Apparently the hot new trend is "raw water": water that has been bottled without any of the treatment that bottled and even tap water normally goes through and thus is chock full of everything in the old-fashioned stuff that can make you sick or dead. It you want to pay half a hundred bucks for a drink that can kill you, there are people who will fill that need.

[Zeropoint]

what the actual heck

[Zeropoint]

In my critical thinking class, we were reminded that humans are bad at evaluating risk, and were introduced to the mnemonic "PAIN" for remembering what factors make humans regard things as high risk:

Personal: the threat has a face; there's a person or at least a definite group of people to whom you can point and say, "There. Those are the bad guys causing our problem."

Available: threats that are easy to imagine and seem connected to everyday life are evaluated as more dangerous

Immoral: the threat is disgusting or repugnant in some way. This point of the mnemonic includes both literal moral disgust, and also aesthetic and biologically instinctive disgust.

Now: the threat seems to be immediate or at least imminent.

 

Thanks to the success of modern industrialized society and medicine at treating and preventing disease, disease is much less "available" to most Americans. I suspect that has a lot to do with these irrational trends like raw water and anti-vaxxers.