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tkdguy

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The Japanese government has banned spectators at the Olympics.

 

Can't say this was inevitable, but neither can you say it's a surprise.  I think the athletes where the Olympics really *is* their venue...swimmers, track, gymnastics, etc...will mostly still go.  Their options are too limited.  The bigger sports like basketball, tennis, and baseball?  The bigger-name athletes in those sports feel a lot more likely (to me) to reconsider.

 

And what concerns me greatly is that the numbers game just says, there's going to be very unfortunate results, along the lines of NC State's forced withdrawal from the CWS.

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3 hours ago, Pariah said:

Isn't all the money in the TV coverage?

 

The Rio Olympics made $1.2 billion just in ticket sales (if you believe the numbers often quoted in the media which they're getting directly from the IOC books). I'd I expect that the host city made a hefty cut on the on-site concession sales on top of that.

 

In contrast, Comcast/NBC has been paying just over $1 billion per Olympics for the rights to broadcast in the US. Granted that the US isn't nearly all of the broadcast rights but it is a huge chunk of it.

 

I have no idea what the revenue sharing deal between the IOC and the host city. But I'd expect that the IOC takes a hefty chunk of the broadcast money. And that the host city expects to make their money back in mostly ticket sales and concessions and general tourism spending.

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7 hours ago, archer said:

 

The Rio Olympics made $1.2 billion just in ticket sales (if you believe the numbers often quoted in the media which they're getting directly from the IOC books). I'd I expect that the host city made a hefty cut on the on-site concession sales on top of that.

 

In contrast, Comcast/NBC has been paying just over $1 billion per Olympics for the rights to broadcast in the US. Granted that the US isn't nearly all of the broadcast rights but it is a huge chunk of it.

 

I have no idea what the revenue sharing deal between the IOC and the host city. But I'd expect that the IOC takes a hefty chunk of the broadcast money. And that the host city expects to make their money back in mostly ticket sales and concessions and general tourism spending.

 

It cost Rio about $13 Billion to host the Olympics, and most of that money was not recouped. https://apnews.com/article/d1662ddb3bae4d2984ca4ab65012be78

 

Tokyo's price tag is estimated at around $15.4 Billion so far. https://apnews.com/article/tokyo-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-tokyo-olympics-japan-olympic-games-3c46bce81928865d9aae0832b5ddd9e3

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The Olympics haven't been profitable for the host country for some time.  But losing the ticket sales will be a major blow;  whoever is backing this Olympics is going to take a major financial bath.

 

Plus, no ticket sales == no tourists filling hotel rooms, eating restaurant meals, etc. as archer pointed out.  Let's guess 50,000 foreign spectators a day between all the venues as a starting point.  $200 per person, per day for hotels and meals...probably low.  (Hotel rooms will be much higher but people will share rooms.)  That's $10M per day, or thereabouts, and obviously those numbers are just wild guesses.  

 

The problem is the massive construction to build new facilities, more than anything else.  SO many special events that practically no one knows...but which need special-purpose facilities.  Simply so many facilities because so few cities can support running *so many of them* simultaneously.  For the latter:  basketball, gymnastics, and volleyball, all need full-time facilities.  Martial arts:  there's boxing, wrestling, judo, tae kwon do, and karate, many of which have weight classes. Weight lifting.  Special facilities:  equestrian events, rowing, canoe, BMX and mountain bike.  The Olympics has become a grotesquely bloated monster;  there are 46 separate sports listed.  

 

But countries and cities keep pushing.  I suspect, tho, that this won't last that much longer, not as is.  It may reduce to cities that have the facilities in place, or at least most of em.  Something like Los Angeles;  there's USC and UCLA, for example, to host some events in their existing arenas, and possibly pools.  Plus the pro facilities.  

 

 

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Djokovic is through to the Wimbledon Final. Watching him get outplayed on some points then use his greater resiliency to score points and keep up was incredible. On Sunday he would draw equal with Federer and Nadal. He has been in 41 Grand Slam semi finals while Federer has been in 46.

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5 minutes ago, death tribble said:

Djokovic is through to the Wimbledon Final. Watching him get outplayed on some points then use his greater resiliency to score points and keep up was incredible. On Sunday he would draw equal with Federer and Nadal. He has been in 41 Grand Slam semi finals while Federer has been in 46.

 

I'm pleasantly surprised Shapovalov gave him that much of a battle. 6, 5 and 5 belies the fact that it was straight sets.

 

The storyline...other than the slippery courts early on...seems to be how some of the younger guys are moving up.  The semis were Joker, Shapo, Hurkacz, and Berrettini.  Shapo's 22, Hurkacz is 24 (but largely unknown before this year).  Berrettini had hit #8 before the pandemic, which is awesome, but hadn't played up to that level that much in the Slams.  Shapo made the move from 20's to #15 at around the same time, but had a hard time moving up much.  This event put him at #10 and suggests perhaps he can stay there.  Hurkacz made a big move this summer...high 20s to low 30s early on, now #11.  

 

And on the flip side, the more-established young guns...Thiem didn't play, but Rublev, Zverev, and Medvedev all went out in the round of 16.

 

Djokovic will probably remain at #1...maybe drop to #2 if Medvedev has a good North American hard court season, but his temperament is suspect, IMO.  Everyone else...I think there'll be a fair bit of churn in the rankings, much more than in the past.  Partly...Federer is dropping and may well retire;  Nadal has to be much more selective on the events he plays, and it's very hard to maintain a top-5 position if you're not playing most of the time.  Most of the rest will churn. 

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Djokovic's win also gives him the first 3 Slam titles of the calendar year, and he has to be a strong favorite to complete the 'official' Grand Slam, winning all 4 in the same calendar year.

 

It also, I think, gave more motivation to try for the first Golden Slam, all in the same year, by winning the Olympic medal.  It is something I think he very much wants;  it would be completely unique, albeit a good chunk of that is that the pros couldn't compete at the Olympics.

 

But just a few minutes ago, he talked about it.  The restrictions for Tokyo are exceptionally tight;  he mentioned he wouldn't be allowed to take his personal racket stringer, and generally that support entourages would be greatly shrunk.  No family, either.  No spectators.  Apparently limited ability to socialize with the other athletes.  He said it was 50-50 at this point, IIRC.

 

Brad Gilbert commented that, over the next 3 years (12 Slams)...he figured Djokovic could readily win 5-7, and there's little reason to question that as long as he doesn't suffer a significant injury.  If so, he'd pass even Margaret Court, and fundamentally lock down the GOAT of tennis, period.  On any measure.  And set the bar so high, in terms of Grand Slam titles, that it may well be unreachable.  The current crop of players between, say, 20 and 27, have a bunch of really good players who can win Slams...but who can also get knocked out.  It feels to me that over the next, say, 32 slams, 8 years, there'll be multiple players who win 3-5...but no one other than Djokovic is likely to win more than that.

 

EDIT:  in that other sporting event drawing the attention of English fans...England scores a goal 2 minutes into the UEFA finals on a beautiful pass to the 3rd man on the weak side, setting him up for a surprise shot inside the short-side post.

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On 7/3/2021 at 12:26 PM, Logan.1179 said:

Good news for sadists with a robot fetish!

 

Japan is working on robots that feel pain

 

On 7/3/2021 at 2:12 PM, archer said:

 

And interesting way of trying to sabotage Skynet before the singularity....

One of the questions on when an AI becomes a person with the right to be part of our "moral community" is "can it suffer"? That an a successful Turing Test would pose intriguing and disturbing dilemmas for AI programmers and robotics techs. What if you design something that feel pain, but which lacks the intelligence or programming to avoid it, you have essentially created a machine designed to suffer.,

 

Once you get robot pain, it should be possible to make something that can feel pleasure when touched.  That raises its own issues if someone were to attempt to design its own "sex dolls".

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21 minutes ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

 

One of the questions on when an AI becomes a person with the right to be part of our "moral community" is "can it suffer"? That an a successful Turing Test would pose intriguing and disturbing dilemmas for AI programmers and robotics techs. What if you design something that feel pain, but which lacks the intelligence or programming to avoid it, you have essentially created a machine designed to suffer.,

 

Once you get robot pain, it should be possible to make something that can feel pleasure when touched.  That raises its own issues if someone were to attempt to design its own "sex dolls".

 

I've studied enough computer science to be a skeptic when it comes to AI, and if you read the actual article, the writer is also skeptical about robots that "feel" pain. It's essentially a program by which an input creates a programmed response.

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