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Simon

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Per CNN: The indictment against the two men contains 12 counts: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading US Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) statements, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts.

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With the charges out there in the ether and soon to hit the news cycles in full force the optics on that would be terrible for the Republican party.  Truly - perhaps fatally for the moderates among their voter base - terrible.  All this time and effort in a probe only to have their highest executive representative say 'nothing to see here'? It would prove every corruption accusing pundit right.  They'd have no choice but to act in some way.

 

If the roles were reversed 'concerned citizen' Trump would be leading the charge to tear down whatever Democratic president even thought about doing so.  He should expect nothing less if he chooses to go down that route - and I think even he would learn (the hard way) that just because you're the one doing it doesn't make it OK.

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Per CNN: The indictment against the two men contains 12 counts: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading US Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) statements, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts.

 

According to NBC News, George Papadopoulos already pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI three weeks ago, from the article:

 

Meanwhile, Papadopoulos, the indictment stated, provided false information about an interaction he had a with a Russian professor who claimed that Moscow had "dirt" on then-candidate Hillary Clinton in the form of "thousands of emails."
 
Papadopoulos lied to the FBI that he had "learned that information prior to joining the campaign,” the indictment said, but in fact the adviser had interacted with the professor after he already had joined the Trump campaign.

 

 

 

Manafort's transactions include wire transfers from foreign accounts to pay for his personal expenses, which means that he avoided paying taxes on the money. The Feds are seeking asset forfeitures for several of his properties.

 

Trump's tweet response, from the article:

 

Trump tweeted Monday, "Sorry, but this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why aren't Crooked Hillary & the Dems the focus?????" he added.
 
"Also, there is NO COLLUSION!" the president wrote.

 

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/paul-manafort-rick-gates-told-surrender-special-prosecutor-probe-n815536

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With the charges out there in the ether and soon to hit the news cycles in full force the optics on that would be terrible for the Republican party.  Truly - perhaps fatally for the moderates among their voter base - terrible.  All this time and effort in a probe only to have their highest executive representative say 'nothing to see here'? It would prove every corruption accusing pundit right.  They'd have no choice but to act in some way.

 

If the roles were reversed 'concerned citizen' Trump would be leading the charge to tear down whatever Democratic president even thought about doing so.  He should expect nothing less if he chooses to go down that route - and I think even he would learn (the hard way) that just because you're the one doing it doesn't make it OK.

People keep expecting trump to act like a rational man when he is clearly nothing of the sort. Trump is a ranting, raving, screaming, tantrum throwing, abusive little manbaby. Due to his wealth and ingrained sense of entitlement by dint of "natural superiority" he's been a bully all his life and his family wealth insulated him from all consequences.  He has no empathy, so regard for others and at heart is a small child who's motto is "I WANT!!!"

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Mueller knows what he's doing.  Timing of this morning's events:
 
1) Mueller: Manafort and Gates are the indictees

2) Trump's Twitter: 'Okay, that has nothing to do with us' ("NO COLLUSION!")

3) Mueller: unseals Papadopoulos indictment
 
 
Note that the Papadopolous indictment is already incredibly incriminating for the Trump campaign, with tidbits like "From mid-June through mid-August 2016, PAPADOPOULOS pursued an 'off the record' meeting between one or more Campaign representatives and 'members of president putin's office and the russian ministry of affairs'".

It looks like these guys were owned by Putin as far back as 2006.  And they are also guilty of plenty of ancillary crimes (like Airbnb money laundering) that Mueller can use as leverage.

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Back to NK: Last week, All Things Considered interviewed a Chinese political science professor who supposedly has close ties to PRC inner circle members. He said Pres. Xi despises Kim Jong Un, and was furious that Kim timed a missile launch or nuke test (I forget which) to coincide with a major Party meeting. Xi does not like to be upstaged in the world press by a vassal. The professor said that if Kim does another provocative missile or nuke test, his regime courts suicide.

 

Not the most authoritative source on the thinking of the Central Committee, I know -- and with China, you always have to consider the possibility of a planted story -- but it's something.

 

Dean Shomshak

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Back to NK: Last week, All Things Considered interviewed a Chinese political science professor who supposedly has close ties to PRC inner circle members. He said Pres. Xi despises Kim Jong Un, and was furious that Kim timed a missile launch or nuke test (I forget which) to coincide with a major Party meeting. Xi does not like to be upstaged in the world press by a vassal. The professor said that if Kim does another provocative missile or nuke test, his regime courts suicide.

 

Not the most authoritative source on the thinking of the Central Committee, I know -- and with China, you always have to consider the possibility of a planted story -- but it's something.

 

Dean Shomshak

China can cut off shipments of fuel and food, which would plunge the country into crisis pretty quickly.  However, a rapid collapse in NK would have an unpredictable aftermath.  South Korea might step into the void, forcing the Chinese to invade NK to preserve their geographic buffer state.  That could lead to WW3.  

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What I've been reading from other China "insiders," is that their government has revised its thinking as to support of the N. Korean regime. Now that China is communist in name only, it feels much less commitment to standing behind another Communist state. Obviously Kim Jong Un's conduct is an ongoing aggravation and embarrassment for China internationally. More to the point, many in Chinese government now view the collapse of the Kim regime as in China's long-term interest. (Those remarks come from officially-sanctioned Chinese news sources, so you know they wouldn't get out if there wasn't at least tacit approval of them.) China has always been nervous at the American troops stationed in S. Korea. They figure that if the military threat from N. Korea disappears, there'd be no reason for the Americans to remain. Furthermore, if S. Korea did absorb the North, that would bring the thriving Korean economy right to China's doorstep. The prospects for improved trade could vitalize northeast China's own economy.

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What I've been reading from other China "insiders," is that their government has revised its thinking as to support of the N. Korean regime. Now that China is communist in name only, it feels much less commitment to standing behind another Communist state. Obviously Kim Jong Un's conduct is an ongoing aggravation and embarrassment for China internationally. More to the point, many in Chinese government now view the collapse of the Kim regime as in China's long-term interest. (Those remarks come from officially-sanctioned Chinese news sources, so you know they wouldn't get out if there wasn't at least tacit approval of them.) China has always been nervous at the American troops stationed in S. Korea. They figure that if the military threat from N. Korea disappears, there'd be no reason for the Americans to remain. Furthermore, if S. Korea did absorb the North, that would bring the thriving Korean economy right to China's doorstep. The prospects for improved trade could vitalize northeast China's own economy.

Well, we could agree to draw down most of our troops, and to not set up any bases in NK post-collapse, in exchange for the PRC helping bring about regime change.  

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Nowadays the almighty dollar (or yuan, or wan) is a much higher priority. There isn't much difference in lifestyle between middle class Chinese and middle class Koreans, so I don't think China is concerned about Korea corrupting its populace, or Korea about Chinese troops marching in to collectivize them. The Chinese government has a lot of empirical evidence that if they keep the majority of their people prosperous, and the rest under a firm thumb, democratic aspirations are controllable. While South Korea has to figure that a superpower neighbor who wants to do business with them is far preferable to a smaller neighbor who wants to shoot missiles at them.

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Well, I've simply heard the accusation -- from American foreign policy experts, mind you -- is that the situation in East Asia is a chess game, but American diplomacy never rises above Tic-Tac-Toe. I fear we must hope for China to solve the North Korea problem, if it can be solved at all.

And the Middle East is three-dimensional chess, with an unknown number of players, who can disguise their pieces.

As for something completely different, this week the radio program All Things Considered is having a series of reports from Indonesia about the politics there. Consider it a vacation from U.S. politics. You can read or listen at npr.org.

 

Dean Shomshak

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You know how the far right is always talking about how the "fascist left" and the "feminazis" want to take away people's freedom and rights and how the conservatives believe in personal freedom and libirdy?.

Then why do conservatives want to tell girls they can't study math and science if they want to?

 

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/15/heres-why-there-ought-to-be-a-cap-on-women-studying-science-and-maths/

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There are a lot of flavors of conservative*, and I really don't expect everyone to immediately denounce everything that sets folks off. Likewise, "but they did it, too" didn't work so well on the playground, won't get you out of a speeding ticket, and probably shouldn't be used in politics, either.

 

 

 

*Feel free to substitute liberal here, as well. Heck, there's often so much noise, it's really hard to get the signal straight from either side.

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Their nuke test collapsed surrounding tunnels, killing about 100, plus killing another 100 who went in for rescue work. The conspiracy theorist in me wondered if it was really sabotage (US or China) but I'm assured that is unlikely.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punggye-ri_Nuclear_Test_Site_tunnel_collapse

 

Meanwhile, one of Trump's appointments for Judge got a unanimous Not Qualified from the Bar. His review before the Judiciary Committee was . . . entertaining. And yes, that rating being unanimous is unusual. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-court-pick-rated-apos-230405192.html

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