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Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)


Simon

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If someone had submitted this campaign as a movie script a few years ago, every studio would have rejected it as too ludicrous for an audience to believe. But who in their right mind would have conceived it?

 

Much as I'd love to never hear anything from either candidate again, I'm more concerned with the aftermath of the election. Whoever gets into the Oval Office will be burdened with scandals and suspicions, and will inherit a political class in chaos and a deeply divided, cynical, and angry electorate.

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Assuming Clinton wins, there's a reckoning coming for Russia over all this hacking stuff. They are headed for permanent decline as a great power, and antagonizing the US and Western Europe in a gambit to get a Putin friendly president elected was a terrible move. IF it fails.

 

I've been reading some news commentary asserting that Hillary Clinton had been pushing a tough stand against Vladimir Putin since before her term as Secretary of State. Putin anticipated hard-line positions toward his regime if she took the Oval Office; from his perspective he probably thought he had nothing to lose.

 

Russia's numerous provocative moves may be intended to compel the West to keep treating Russia as a great power. Whether it is or not, it's good for his domestic support (and probably his ego) for Putin to keep making a show of Russia's international influence. Having a lot of nuclear weapons makes it practically impossible to either ignore or coerce Putin and Russia.

 

But it's also worth remembering that Russians are genuinely concerned about the expansion of NATO and other Western coalitions into what Russia traditionally considers its sphere of influence, in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. We all know how traumatized American society was by a very few relatively minor foreign terrorist attacks on its soil. Try to imagine the mindset of a people who have been repeatedly invaded for centuries.

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I expect Clinton to give a lot of talk on going after Russia, but not all that much action in the end.  For better or worse, our side is probably more prone to blink on something like this.  Hopefully, the American powers that be will get a rudimentary desire for cybersecurity from all these messes, it is really all we can do.

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They are incredibly dependent upon oil and gas export, and the sanctions and low oil prices are crippling their economy. Russia's cash reserves run out next year, and if the oil market doesn't recover, Putin may face a deeply unhappy electorate in 2018. Anything we can do to make life more difficult for him is to be seriously considered, imo.

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I wouldn't be against, but I have serious doubts anything realistically damaging would be done.  I have become dubious about sanctions.  Although Russia might be a bit more prone than the usual nation we have done to in the past ( mostly Mid East dictatorships who apparently didn't give a #### about the miseries of their people, in Russia you do have to answer to the people a little bit.)

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I've read more than one analyst suggest that Russia's provocative military moves are calculated to, among other things, make other nations think twice about the potential consequences of leveling economic sanctions against Russia. It's possible to push Putin to the point where he figures he has less to lose from war than from peace.

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I wouldn't be against, but I have serious doubts anything realistically damaging would be done.  I have become dubious about sanctions.  Although Russia might be a bit more prone than the usual nation we have done to in the past ( mostly Mid East dictatorships who apparently didn't give a #### about the miseries of their people, in Russia you do have to answer to the people a little bit.)

 

Sanction use is complicated. "We" don't want to put the economic strong-arm on the poor downtrodden Russkies who are only reacting badly to the changing world because the pretty much 100% Putin-controlled Russian media is feeding them propaganda and fantasy. The Kleptocrats who Putin might need to consider (fewer in number and more loyal nowadays than they once were, thanks to the good old successors of the KGB) can keep soaking the public purse for a good while yet. Your average Russian is no naif with tricolours in their eyes, but they're barely one generation out of 100% totalitarianism, (which didn't arise out of any long tradition of parliamentary democracy) and stereotypical fatalism will make any backlash against the gangsters who stole the benefits of Russia's vast natural resources slow to arise. Without that backlash, though, I'd say you barely have to consider the actual opinions of the Russian People, since they are, effectively, the opinions of the propaganda organs which serve the incumbent kleptocracy.

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They are incredibly dependent upon oil and gas export, and the sanctions and low oil prices are crippling their economy. Russia's cash reserves run out next year, and if the oil market doesn't recover, Putin may face a deeply unhappy electorate in 2018. Anything we can do to make life more difficult for him is to be seriously considered, imo.

"How dare the Russians interfere with our political process! Let's interfere with theirs!" 

 

How about we just secure our IT centers, stop rigging what should be fair and open processes, and generally not be terrible to each other, and do our darndest to not get in a war with anyone - especially not Russia (or China!). 

 

I voted already with a mail-in-ballot. Since I no longer live in my homestate, I felt a little weird voting on some local issues but did so in large part. Not being up to date with some of the candidates, my ballot was largely Gold with a couple blue marks for people that I do know of and think are okay (and because in at least one case the gold candidate was terrible). 

 

Soar. 

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So it begins...

 

 

 

A man wearing a Donald Trump shirt and carrying a weapon stood outside a voting location in Loudoun County, Virginia, on Friday. Authorities in the nation’s richest county are apparently OK with that.

 

 

“I had my 9-year-old son with me. I felt intimidated,” Cotti said. “And I had to explain to my 9-year-old why a man with a 357 magnum is standing outside the polling station.”

Cotti said the man offered her a Republican sample ballot, which she declined.

“He’s like, ‘Who are you going to vote for, crooked Hillary?’ And I was like, that’s really none of your business,” Cotti said, adding that the man was standing in the sidewalk outside of the office when they left and blocking their path.
 

 

Loudoun County Republican Committee Chairman Will Estrada told HuffPost that the man was a former law enforcement official and veteran with a concealed carry permit.
“’We don’t want to startle anyone,’” Estrada said he told him. “He felt really bad, he pulled his T-shirt over it, and I think everything was fine after that.”

 

They don't want to startle anyone.  Intimidate, yes.  Startle, no.

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Always a chance a do something stupid.  My first impulse to threats is to defy said threat  (though sometimes wise to do it through unrecognizable means)

 

That's always been my first impulse as well - but being a father of two does a pretty good job of curbing it.  Do I really want to leave my wife with  two children under five for taking a shortcut through an area I knew I shouldn't or not giving up a seat on the bus (or even my wallet)? Unrecognizable is where it's at these days - no more defiance, just pure revenge.

 

Saying "It's none of your business" to an armed stranger with your 9 year old present is more than brave enough.

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