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Jim Hendren, a state senator from Arkansas, declared that he is leaving the GOP to become an independent. In his public statement as to why he's leaving, among his various reasons, he said something that if true, bodes very ill for the future of the Republican Party: "You can't win a primary without Trump's support, but you can't win a general election with it."

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I feel this needs to be shared.  

The legend lives on from the Apprentice on down of the big oompaloompa called Donnie The Donnie, it is said, always has some bed head and he's friends with a loon named Giulani Wit

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That was then. The party is polarizing, and looks to be fragmenting. Trump is taking the extremists with him. If Republican legislators try to chase after them, they turn off less extreme people who'd normally vote GOP. If they woo more moderate elements they alienate the Trumpists. In the meantime the real conservatives who believe in the party's stated values are abandoning both. None of those factions represent enough votes to win.

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1 hour ago, Lord Liaden said:

That was then. The party is polarizing, and looks to be fragmenting. Trump is taking the extremists with him. If Republican legislators try to chase after them, they turn off less extreme people who'd normally vote GOP. If they woo more moderate elements they alienate the Trumpists. In the meantime the real conservatives who believe in the party's stated values are abandoning both. None of those factions represent enough votes to win.

 

I so hope you're right, LL.  I really, desperately hope you're right.  But I've been waiting for decades for the GOP to disown the extremists, just like I've been waiting for decades for the inevitable demographic shift that puts the GOP into decline.  So I hope you'll forgive me if I'm a little cynical.

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My concern is much like Tricksta's.  The concern is that Trumpists will win quite a few primaries in the mixed areas...there'll be quite a few districts where his sycophants will win easily, and some where they'll lose massively.  But in those contested states like Arizona and Michigan, where the Party 'leaders' have excoriated anyone for 'disloyalty' to His Orangeness, they'll win the primaries.  Now, come the general elections...which do they fear more, the Trumplican or the Democrat?  20 years of conditioning versus a bunch of media reports about which they're skeptical at best anyway.  How many people would vote for a Trumplican but NOT for Trump himself?  The two aren't necessarily the same.  

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2 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

In that circumstance, how many of them will simply decline to vote? It's not like that hasn't been a trend in America for decades when voters see no candidate they can support. The pattern has not been voter motivation, but voter apathy.

 

Yes, that's likely to be the decision of some, but I don't think we can underestimate the level of sheer loathing that exists for the Democrats.  How many Republicans were Never Trumpers...then voted for him in 2016?

 

On the plus side...I felt in 2016 that if Trump was the Republican nominee, then the Dems would win easily.  EXCEPT!!!! if the Dems nominated Hilary.  For several reasons, but a big one was the absolute, *specific* hatred of Hilary as a Clinton.  Her campaign style totally failed to galvanize her side...but it completely galvanized the Republicans, and not just the base.  In 2022, we'll probably get a look if the same thing can happen in the off-year Congressionals, and I think it'd absolutely be a factor if Trump gets nominated for 2024.

 

Also, and this is PURELY speculative, but...how many people who choose not to vote because they can't stand any of the candidates (and I think Hilary fit into that category too)...more generally vote Democratic?

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I forget whether it was Professor Parker or Michael Kimmel (author of Angry White Men) who provided the breakdown of GOP voters I heard on ATC, but he said they are about 50% Trumpists, 40% willing to put up with him but wedded to policies rather than personality cult, and 10% Never Trumpers. So I'd guess that Trumpists own the primaries for at least the next few years.

 

Kimmel closely followed the Capitol insurgency and the statements by the rioters. He found them all too familiar in their sense of "aggrieved entitlement." Like Prof. Parker, he finds that ardent Trumpists are not suffering in any material sense. Nor do they suffer any real, quantifiable oppression. But they believe they deserve much more wealth, political power and cultural respect -- and burn with rqage at the people they believe are denying them their due.

 

My sister tells me that Never Trumper Evangelical blogger David French finds the same thing on his beat. French argues that Christians (Evangelical or potherwise) suffer no real, legal oppression. Like, if you want to stand on a streetcorner with your sign and pamphlets to tell passers-by that Jesus Saves, no one is going to stop you. But... you have no greater freedom to proclaim your message than anyone else. And the people you harangue have never had greater freedom to ignore you, and everyone else. Speakling to his fellow Evangelicals, he finds their grievance is entirely emotional.

 

This is why I think widespread armed insurgency is likely from the far right -- but *not* from Black Lives Matter. Black Americans suffer many real deprivations and injustices... but real grievances are capable of real solutions, by real political action. Grievances that exist only in your head cannot be resolved by any law or program (at least that is likely to be passed in Congress or survive court challenges). So all the angry white men have left is violence.

 

Dean Shomshak

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14 hours ago, Starlord said:

Is Harris really going to be appealing enough to win in 2024?

 

I don't have anything for her or against her at this point.

 

In the general election, would I vote for her over any Republican? Sure, assuming "Republican" means anything even remotely close to what it did in 2020-21.

 

Would I vote for her over any other Democrat in the primaries? Complete unknown. She might in 2024 run on the same thing that she did in the 2020 primaries. She might, however, run as a second Biden term (which isn't unusual for a VP). Or she could be off in a completely different direction than either of those.

 

I don't find her mesmerizing as a person or a candidate. And even if I did, that likely wouldn't make any difference to me. I'll likely pick my preferred candidate based on policy proposals and whether I think the candidate has any chance of turning proposals into law.

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38 minutes ago, Starlord said:

A predator and a proven liar...what a lovely guy.

 

I don't have any evidence that this lady's story is true. My guess is that it probably is true. I worked for a CEO who ran his company like a cult of personality and women would flock to him (literally 10, 15, 20 at a time) competing to see who could get full body hugs, kisses, pats on the rump, and such. I actively tried to not watch exactly what he was touching on who whenever he was around. It was impossible to tell who was participating because that's what they needed to do for their careers from the ones who were enjoying the attention.

 

I think most powerful men of a certain age have trouble pulling their sensibilities into the modern era and separating the idea of "I have power" from "women must find me irresistible and who am I to deprive them of me?"

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I would also like to point out that guys are stupid.

 

I worked one time in a small office space with a female coworker and the place would get horribly hot. She often wore sweaters and would take them off as the day warmed up.

 

One afternoon she mentioned that she was hot so I automatically responded that she should take off her sweater.

 

She didn't say anything else about it. 

 

A few minutes later I looked over and noticed for the first time that the sweater she was wearing that day wasn't actually over any other item of clothing.

 

I was so embarrassed that I didn't know what to say. So I just never said anything about it.

 

I have no idea what she thought about the incident. I joke around a lot. She might have taken it as a bad joke. Or as a bad pass. Or as sexual harassment. Or she might not really have noticed or thought anything about it. She brought up a lot of topics that I wouldn't have thought was appropriate workplace chitchat.

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47 minutes ago, archer said:

 

I don't have any evidence that this lady's story is true. My guess is that it probably is true. I worked for a CEO who ran his company like a cult of personality and women would flock to him (literally 10, 15, 20 at a time) competing to see who could get full body hugs, kisses, pats on the rump, and such. I actively tried to not watch exactly what he was touching on who whenever he was around. It was impossible to tell who was participating because that's what they needed to do for their careers from the ones who were enjoying the attention.

 

I think most powerful men of a certain age have trouble pulling their sensibilities into the modern era and separating the idea of "I have power" from "women must find me irresistible and who am I to deprive them of me?"

 

He's a proven liar thanks to the nursing home scandal.

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