Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Lord Liaden]

3 hours ago, Pariah said:

California's governor pledges to model an assault weapons ban on Texas abortion law

 

 

I saw quite a few warnings when it was passed that this law could be interpreted in a number of situations against the desires of those who passed it.

 

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

 

I think some of the reason why California's pushing this is to force the Supreme Court to recognize what allowing this to stand would do.  The 5 conservatives seem to be taking an "end justified the means" position...abortion should be banned, and it doesn't matter how.  Doesn't it????

 

I have that suspicion as well. Object lesson being communicated.

[aylwin13]

18 hours ago, Ternaugh said:

 

I was raised Catholic.

 

 

 

But I got better.

I always looked at it as being a "reformed Roman Catholic". Same thing, though.  

[Pariah]

20 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

I have that suspicion as well. Object lesson being communicated.

 

"For ’tis the sport to have the engineer
Hoist with his own petard. And ’t shall go hard,
But I will delve one yard below their mines,
And blow them at the moon."

 

-Prince Hamlet, The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of Denmark, Act 3 Scene 4

[unclevlad]

So apparently the late night hosts had a field day with the Fox people about texting Trump to go on air to stop Jan. 6th.

 

I rather like this one:

 

Quote

“If one person at your network has no integrity, that’s a problem. If nobody has integrity, that’s a company policy.” — TREVOR NOAH

 

[Lord Liaden]

One commentator I heard yesterday pointed out that this proves that when Fox pundits claim that the coup attempt was actually a peaceful demonstration, or an Antifa plot to make Trump look bad, or the left-wing media blowing it out of proportion... they knew at the time that wasn't true, and they've been deliberately lying about it ever since.

 

Tragically, the people who listen to them will never hear that proof, or believe it if they do hear it, or care if they do believe it.

[unclevlad]

Unfortunately proven beyond a reasonable doubt, with the Covid lies.  In a different forum, I responded to one person with a "so England, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Australia, Canada...they're all lying about their Covid situations?" and their answer was "Yes."  This, to me, is a much better example, as anything related to US politics ties into the HARD partisan divide and the totally unshakable belief that every major media outlet on the other side is lying or actively covering up.  Or slanting at the very least.  There is, unfortunately, a degree of truth to that;  but CNN and NYT don't *outright* lie the way Fox does. 

 

 

[Lord Liaden]

I believe some of that "slanting" from today's American liberal media has come in response to propaganda from "conservative" outlets. The radical American right is advocating such a distorted, biased viewpoint, media on the left has to some extent abandoned their commitment to be as impartial as possible (which most of them took very seriously during the previous century) in order to present a counterpoint to that propaganda. Under the circumstances I don't think they have a lot of choice, since the alternative is to let the current Conservatives have free rein in the marketplace of ideas.

 

I recall a few years ago listening to a discussion among American journalists where it was pointed out that during the 2016 presidential election, while all of Donald Trump's shenanigans and transgressions were being raised, the media believed they had to highlight issues surrounding Hillary Clinton for the sake of being balanced. Most often that involved Clinton's infamous emails. But the conclusion the journalists came to was that that coverage contributed to a false equivalency in the public's mind between Trump's actions and Clinton's, such that it undercut her image while making Trump look less egregious in comparison.

[Ragitsu]

"Both sides have a point."

 

Yes: one is a spear and the other is a toothpick.

[Pariah]

8 hours ago, Ragitsu said:

"Both sides have a point."

 

Yes: one is a spear and the other is a toothpick.

 

I like this. A lot.

[Pariah]

See? SEE?! I KNEW there was election Fraud! This proves it!

 

3 Florida residents arrested after casting multiple votes in 2020 election

 

(In case you're curious, two of the three are registered as Republicans. The third has no listed political affiliation, but has pro-Trump posts on social media. All three are white and are of retirement age.) 

[Ternaugh]

13 minutes ago, Pariah said:

See? SEE?! I KNEW there was election Fraud! This proves it!

 

3 Florida residents arrested after casting multiple votes in 2020 election

 

(In case you're curious, two of the three are registered as Republicans. The third has no listed political affiliation, but has pro-Trump posts on social media. All three are white and are of retirement age.) 

 

Election fraud, Nevada edition: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/clark-county-man-will-plead-guilty-to-voting-more-than-once-in-2020-election

 

Quote

Hartle is the chief financial officer and treasurer for the Ahern Family of Companies, according to his LinkedIn page. The company’s owner, Don Ahern, is a major supporter of former President Donald Trump, and the company hosted a QAnon-linked conference in October at the Ahern Hotel off the Las Vegas Strip.

 

[Lord Liaden]

Very interesting demographic breakdown of current COVID vaccination rates in the United States. (Cross-posted to the Coronavirus thread.)

 

 

[Cygnia]

Dominion Voting wins key decision in lawsuit against Fox News

[unclevlad]

11 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

Very interesting demographic breakdown of current COVID vaccination rates in the United States. (Cross-posted to the Coronavirus thread.)

 

 

Pakman hadn't been paying attention, then.  The split's been written about extensively.  And he's even starting with citing infections, hospitalizations, etc. having a partisan split.  So why does a vaccination rate gap surprise him in the slightest?

 

There's a story in this morning's NYT Briefings (email) about the threat omicron raises in the red states...because it is much more infectious, and because *vaccination rates are so much lower.*

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Cygnia said:

Dominion Voting wins key decision in lawsuit against Fox News

 

I think this is overplaying it.  But hey, it's CNN writing the headline so it's not surprising.  The judge declined to dismiss.  Dismissing before discovery would be saying that filing the case in the first place was a move worthy of a Giuliani Award.

[Lord Liaden]

3 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

Pakman hadn't been paying attention, then.  The split's been written about extensively.  And he's even starting with citing infections, hospitalizations, etc. having a partisan split.  So why does a vaccination rate gap surprise him in the slightest?

 

 

I don't think the gap surprised him, just the magnitude of it. As he pointed out, no distinguishing feature for any group accounts for as low a vaccination rate.

 

3 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

I think this is overplaying it.  But hey, it's CNN writing the headline so it's not surprising.  The judge declined to dismiss.  Dismissing before discovery would be saying that filing the case in the first place was a move worthy of a Giuliani Award.

 

Perhaps it's overplayed, but these days the American courts can't be counted on to deliver a judgement without partisanship. Besides, anything that brings Fox closer to accountability is worth a pat on the back.

[TrickstaPriest]

14 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

Perhaps it's overplayed, but these days the American courts can't be counted on to deliver a judgement without partisanship. Besides, anything that brings Fox closer to accountability is worth a pat on the back.

 

I'm pretty sure Fox and all the radio hosts associated with it will have indirectly caused more deaths than any other collective figures in history by the time the covid and climate deaths are fully accounted for.  Barring a preemptive nuclear strike, of course...

[Cancer]

Washington State Senator Doug Ericksen (R, 42nd District, which abuts the Canadian border from Puget Sound out to the Cascade crest), has died of complications of COVID.

 

Quote

In 2021 Ericksen was primary sponsor for a bill "Protecting the right of every Washington resident to decline an immunization or vaccination for COVID-19."

 

[TrickstaPriest]

https://www.newsweek.com/2021/12/31/millions-angry-armed-americans-stand-ready-seize-power-if-trump-loses-2024-1660953.html

 

(edit: pretty sure this is an overexaggeration - more people bought guns to protect themselves than anything, likely, but there will likely be the kind of political violence we see in certain foreign countries...)

[unclevlad]

5 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

https://www.newsweek.com/2021/12/31/millions-angry-armed-americans-stand-ready-seize-power-if-trump-loses-2024-1660953.html

 

(edit: pretty sure this is an overexaggeration - more people bought guns to protect themselves than anything, likely, but there will likely be the kind of political violence we see in certain foreign countries...)

 

Maybe but.......I don't think it's that much of an overstatement.  We'd NEVER have predicted Jan. 6th as late as, say, October 2020.  And play the numbers.  Let's start with 50 million Americans 18-60, who count themselves Republicans.  Call it 25 million males, 25 million females.  If 2% of the women and 5% of the men are willing to join in...that's 1.75 million.

 

Another consideration is, I absolutely expect that "don't let them steal THIS election!" is going to be the mantra for the election.  So if they lose, they'll have seeded the revolt already.

 

Also understand:  I think the action will be viewed as absolutely patriotic.  So it IS protecting themselves.

[Lord Liaden]

Let's not allow the hyperbole to panic us. The United States is a country of 330 million. "Millions of Americans" translates to less than 1% of the population. Revolution ain't happening from that.

 

Post-election violence? Very possible, but if the intelligence of the Jan. 6 rioters is typical of the movement, it won't be organized enough to make any practical inroads.

 

That said, it's three years away. A lot can happen in that time. The greater danger is if Trump, or a more competent successor in the same mold, wins for the GOP in 2024.

[Pattern Ghost]

7 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

"Millions of Americans" translates to less than 1% of the population. Revolution ain't happening from that.

 

There are about 696,000-697,000 police in the US.  There are about 336,000-337,000 National Guard members (including support units) in the US. There are about 1.3 to 1.4 million active duty military personnel in the US armed forces (including support units and those deployed around the world.)

 

A single million people acting up at once is a catastrophe of unheard of scale. Just 1% of the population is 3.3 million people . . . we'd be in deep doo-doo if that many people started acting up all at once.

 

Could they actually overthrow the government? Probably not, but not for lack of bodies, even at those numbers.

 

 

[TrickstaPriest]

22 minutes ago, Pattern Ghost said:

A single million people acting up at once is a catastrophe of unheard of scale. Just 1% of the population is 3.3 million people . . . we'd be in deep doo-doo if that many people started acting up all at once.

 

 

Yeah.  Or even intermittently.  This is going to be something we are going to feel the scars for the rest of our lives, if things go bad.

[unclevlad]

Also, the police are spread out across the country.  If violence does happen, it'll be much more localized...the purple states, basically, plus DC.  BUT, like Jan. 6th, those involved will not be limited to those areas.

 

And it doesn't have to make broad inroads.  If 2024 is like 2020, it only needs to change things in a few places.  This is why there's such concern.  In 2020, with the most antagonizing, least qualified candidate ever, the Trumplicans still got 232 of the 270 electoral votes they needed, and pulled about 48% of the popular vote overall.  They don't *need* dramatic change.  And figure, they're very likely to get both Houses, and they've packed the Supreme Court.  The liberals are afraid they're not walking a tightrope;  they're walking a silk thread.

[Lord Liaden]

4 hours ago, Pattern Ghost said:

 

There are about 696,000-697,000 police in the US.  There are about 336,000-337,000 National Guard members (including support units) in the US. There are about 1.3 to 1.4 million active duty military personnel in the US armed forces (including support units and those deployed around the world.)

 

A single million people acting up at once is a catastrophe of unheard of scale. Just 1% of the population is 3.3 million people . . . we'd be in deep doo-doo if that many people started acting up all at once.

 

Could they actually overthrow the government? Probably not, but not for lack of bodies, even at those numbers.

 

 

 

That is, of course, assuming that the majority of those who claim to be willing to fight would actually do so. Past experience implies most of them talk big but act small in the crunch. Moreover, these people have no coordinating organization, no central authority. They're mobs at most. The police, National Guard, active duty military, are better organized, better trained in most cases, and far better armed.

 

If you want to look at a comparable example, consider the widespread Black Lives Matter protests. When the authorities want to exert force such demonstrations can be quickly quashed. And the black population of America is over 14% of the total.

 

Here's another example, the Palestinian intifada against Israel. There are almost 2 million Palestinian Israelis, more than 20% of the country's total population; and nearly 5 million Palestinians in the occupied territories, compared to fewer than 600 thousand Jewish settlers. The intifada has gone on intermittently for decades, and is no closer to breaking Israel's dominance of the territories, or overthrowing their government, than when it started.

 

Don't get me wrong, the United States has a history of widespread violent protests which have proven very disruptive. The civil rights and anti-war movements, despite being necessary and mostly peaceful, ended up being very costly in property, sometimes in lives, and to the social contracts which are the fabric of our society. The right-wingers who say they'd rather fight could surely do some serious damage to America. But unless their situation changes dramatically in the next few years, an actual coordinated revolution is unlikely, and a successful one even less so.