Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[unclevlad]

One of the problems with Biden's approval rating is simply inflation.  No matter that the root causes tie directly to the Covid pandemic...which doesn't mean they should be blamed on Trump, either.  But, Biden's in office as prices skyrocket, so he takes the hit.

 

There may also be some fringe issues, but it certainly feels like the news cycle all year has been dominated by Republican machinations...Trump's issues, DeSantis' moves, Texas' usurpation of local authority, the circus in the House, etc.  Any positive news by the Dems, feels like it's getting drowned out.  The fundamental paralysis in Congress has also made it extremely difficult for Biden to get anything done...which looks bad.

[Iuz the Evil]

Trump is unambiguously the worst candidate imaginable, utterly contemptible and deserving of public scorn. He is the closest thing imaginable to my worst nightmare, making me actually yearn for the incompetent leadership of George W Bush by comparison (who once made me say or out loud through his actions “please never again let there be a President dumber than I am”).

 

Biden is not a good candidate. He is a good man, there is a big difference. He looks ancient, confused, and has not become more articulate as the term progressed. That isn’t to say that I do not wildly prefer his policies. The biggest failing of the Democratic Party in recent years is they have utterly failed to develop a deep bench. What are we facing right now? Kamala Harris? Gavin Newsom? 
 

Save us from that. What happened to the Barack Obama speech in the 2004 DNC? 
 

 

I accept that we are in a post moderate world, so my preferences are largely marginalized and irrelevant for either party. I just want people I can believe in.

 

 Like Clinton did in 2012 (admittedly after his Presidency)…

 

 

 If it comes to Gavin Newsom versus Donald Trump, I honestly don’t know what I’d do. I cannot cast a vote for either man, and as someone in public service I cannot begin to express what a huge statement that is for me. I’d prefer Harris, she’s at least a progressive version of GWB in my estimation. 
 

We need to do better, and that begins at the local level. Give me someone who wants to serve. Came up through public office, but isn’t a raging narcissist in the pocket of corporate interests (thank you Citizens United). Someone who can compromise, and who sees all Americans as their constituents. Not just those who voted for them.

 

 It is a difficult time for me. I accept that others may feel differently, but I can’t stand this. Ugh. 
 

I hope for a better tomorrow.

 

[Old Man]

2 hours ago, Iuz the Evil said:

 If it comes to Gavin Newsom versus Donald Trump, I honestly don’t know what I’d do.

 

 

I feel like at least one of those guys wouldn't try to end democracy, but you do you. 

[DShomshak]

My ideal candidate would be  a Democratic analog to George H. W. Bush: Someone whose career in government is so long and diverse that President is nearly the only office they haven't held yet.

 

Failing that, a governor.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Lord Liaden]

It's ironic, for all the criticism of George H.W. Bush, he was one of the most qualified candidates for President that the United States ever had. Decorated combat officer. Successful oil tycoon. Congressman. Ambassador to the United Nations. Director of the CIA. Vice-President. It's hard to imagine a more impressive or relevant resume for the job.

 

Unlike his son, he also knew when to pull out of a war.

[BoloOfEarth]

Apropos of nothing...

 

Way back, I heard someone describe Ronald Reagan as "a bit like the country's grandpa," and George H.W. Bush as "the country's step-dad."

 

I also liked Dana Carvey's description for how he imitated Bush's voice.  "You take John Wayne, mix it with Mister Rogers, and you've got George Bush."

[Lord Liaden]

I remember back when GHWB was campaigning for President, a news commentator described how Bush was in reality what Ronald Reagan had only pretended to be. Reagan wanted to hobnob with the social elite that Bush was born into. Reagan played a star athlete in the movies, Bush was captain of his university softball team. Reagan played a war hero, Bush commanded a bomber during WW II, was shot down behind enemy lines and led his crew to safety. Reagan played a cowboy, Bush owned and ran a working ranch.

[tkdguy]

In other news, Hamas has attacked Israel, first launching rockets, then capturing Israeli soldiers.

 

https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-rockets-airstrikes-tel-aviv-11fb98655c256d54ecb5329284fc37d2

[Tom Cowan]

1 hour ago, tkdguy said:

In other news, Hamas has attacked Israel, first launching rockets, then capturing Israeli soldiers.

 

https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-rockets-airstrikes-tel-aviv-11fb98655c256d54ecb5329284fc37d2

Hamas got a number of Israeli civilians, that is not going to end well.

[tkdguy]

Unfortunately, these things almost never do.

[unclevlad]

And it's rapidly deteriorating.

 

NYT Lead:

 

Quote

The Israeli prime minister ordered a call-up of reservists after Palestinian militants fired thousands of rockets, invaded several Israeli towns and took hostages. Nearly 300 people have been killed, according to Israeli and Palestinian officials.

 

This will lead to large-scale military reaction/reprisal from Israel;  there's no other course of action for them now.  It'll also force an even harder-line stance towards Hamas for the foreseeable future.

[Old Man]

[tkdguy]

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9r9HYFxEQOBXSopFS61ZWg/community?lb=UgkxyHu7QZvOHXpymX7NkVpHkLfPlj-MSAnz

[Dr. MID-Nite]

21 hours ago, Iuz the Evil said:

We need to do better, and that begins at the local level. Give me someone who wants to serve. Came up through public office, but isn’t a raging narcissist in the pocket of corporate interests (thank you Citizens United). Someone who can compromise, and who sees all Americans as their constituents. Not just those who voted for them.

 

 

I can appreciate that, but when one side wants to legislate minorities out of existence...I'm not seeing much room for compromise. I'll reference the  "Paradox of Tolerance" for my general views on that. The simple fact of the matter is that nothing will fundamentally change until we substantially reduce money in politics....and that's not going to happen in our existing system. You do the math. The change that is needed is not going to organically happen without strong outside influence.

[Cygnia]

https://www.clevescene.com/news/inside-the-book-ban-machine-the-rise-of-parental-rights-groups-and-their-efforts-to-ban-books-42885084

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, Dr. MID-Nite said:

 

I can appreciate that, but when one side wants to legislate minorities out of existence...I'm not seeing much room for compromise. 

 

The far right never compromises.  They sometimes settle for the lesser gain for the time being, then go for the rest later.

[Iuz the Evil]

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/index.html
 

 

[tkdguy]

https://www.meidastouch.com/news/israel-has-declared-war-for-the-first-time-since-1973

[Lord Liaden]

I'm not saying there's any direct causal link, but this is just the distraction Israeli PM Netanyahu needs from his ongoing corruption trial.

[Starlord]

4 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

I'm not saying there's any direct causal link, but this is just the distraction Israeli PM Netanyahu needs from his ongoing corruption trial.

 

Yes, but you would still need the supposed 'best intelligence agency in the world' to be caught totally by surprise for that plan to have maximum effect.  Oh wait....

Edited October 9, 2023 by Starlord

[Iuz the Evil]

Now Hamas is saying they’re open to negotiating a truce. Yeah. Good luck with that.

[Tom Cowan]

and Hamas official: 'We have not killed any civilians'

[DShomshak]

From what the BBC said yesterday, it seems implausible that Israel's intelligence agency -- which watches Gza constantly using drones, has some of the world's best sigint and cyber, plus scads of Palestinian informants in Gaza -- could be taken so completely by surprise by such a massive operation. OTOH it also seems implausible to me that Netanyahu's government could keep secret that it knew and let it happen. Especially given how much of the military supposedly despises him, to the verge of threatening mass mutiny against his power-grabbing reforms.

 

BBC and ATC reporting also suggests the attack isn't rallying the population behind Netanyahu as much as he might hope. Some of the people interviewed directly blamed his government for this appalling intelligence failure.

 

As for Hamas: What were they thinking? Are the leaders crazy or fanatical enough to think they can win an actual victory against Israel? Perhaps they were overconfident given the internal strife around Netanyahu, but it takes *monumental* overconfidence not to see how an external attack could quell that dissent. One suggestion I heard: Hamas (or Iran, from which it gets aid) wants to block rapprochement between Israel and ?Saudi Arabia. They've supposedly done it before, but used smaller attacks to do so. Or maybe they think enough outside actors will come to their aid to defeat Israel, but it's been an awful long time since the multi-state alliance of the Six-Day War. I don't see Israel's neighbors allying for, well, anything. They have problems of their own.

 

And threatening to kill hostages? Perhaps they confuse Israel with a Western government. I cannot imagine many things more likely to goad Israel's government into vowing the total destruction of Gaza. Forget the incredibly difficult and bloody urban warfare, just attempt a replay of the firebombing of Dresden... at least once Israel was sure it couldn't get its hostages back alive. And it's basic military doctrine that you *must not* let an enemy use human shields, even if they are your own people.

 

All I know for sure is this will reach epic levels of ugliness, which is not exactly an original observation. And I suspect we will see additional brutal aggressions in the coming years, now that Putin broke the taboo against direct attempts to conquer other states.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Old Man]

22 minutes ago, DShomshak said:

As for Hamas: What were they thinking? Are the leaders crazy or fanatical enough to think they can win an actual victory against Israel? Perhaps they were overconfident given the internal strife around Netanyahu, but it takes *monumental* overconfidence not to see how an external attack could quell that dissent. One suggestion I heard: Hamas (or Iran, from which it gets aid) wants to block rapprochement between Israel and ?Saudi Arabia. They've supposedly done it before, but used smaller attacks to do so.

 

1. Disrupt normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel

2. Provoke Israel to destroy itself from within, in a manner similar to American's self destruction after September 2001

[Lord Liaden]

This one's a little longer (over eight minutes), and was recorded before Israel's declaration of war: but does a good job of exploring what Hamas may have been going  for:

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Lord Liaden