2018 Baseball Thread (MLB and whatever)

[unclevlad]

I'm just glad GABF was the last week of the regular season.  But it was fun to watch the Rockies play Boston, surrounded by a few thousand crazed hopheads.  The areas around the couple TVs were MOBBED.

 

Or...maybe not.  Might've been a bit less crowded if there'd been a playoff home game on one of the days.

[Badger]

Welp the team I most wanted to win will be eliminated by the #2 team I least want to win.   Pretty much postseason as usual.

[unclevlad]

Ouch.

 POW.

SMASH.

Indians bullpen collapses catastrophically.  3 in the 7th, 6-spot in the 8th.  10-2 Astros.  Game and series basically over.  

[unclevlad]

Kimbrel, are you trying to give me a heart attack?????

 

I mean, come on, 2 of the sweetest words in the language are 

 

YANKEES LOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

(Yes, I loathe John Sterling as a broadcaster.)

[Badger]

I'd rather hear Red Sox lose to be honest.  I....do......not.....like.....them.  (and the Giants 2010-14 were very painful years since I didn't care for Tony LaRussa managerial style, either)

 

Probably the only baseball fan in America who is neutral with the Yankees.

[Pariah]

Well, nobody's perfect.

[Cygnia]

Good riddance...

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/cleveland-indians-chief-wahoo-logo-racist-offensive-mlb-native-americans-baseball.html

[Pariah]

Today's Google Doodle is Roberto Clemente.  

[slikmar]

Dammit, Houston letting Boston take series lead. They had one job, make sure that NY or Boston, whichever they played, did not go to world series and they are trying to mess it up.

[unclevlad]

It's only 2-1.  I think this is gonna be a long series.  

 

Well, ok, I hope it will be.  The Sox certainly CAN be overwhelming, and the Sox bullpen is still shaky as heck.

[slikmar]

Yeah, but part of my problem, and call it conspiracy theory, is that if it gets to game 7 IN Fenway, I don't trust MLB and the television "powers that be" not to try to interfere in some way (oh look, strikes being called on Houston aren't on Boston, and yes, there have been studies showing that the strike zone for teams like NY and Boston are not the same as their opponents). I would actually say same thing about National series, wanting the Dodgers to get to WS.

[Badger]

If it was 5 years ago, I'd think the reverse in the NLCS (so Selig could have "his team" in the Series).  

 

At least MLB isn't as obvious as NBA (see Lakers vs Kings about a decade and a half ago)

[unclevlad]

Brewers/Dodgers in 13th as I type.

 

Gonna go out a bit on a limb and say whoever can win this, wins the series.  Why?  Brewers are taxing their bullpen;  the longer this goes, the worse that'll be.  That's OK *if* they can win this one and go up 3-1.  If Dodgers win, they've got Kershaw, and while he didn't have a great start, we can also expect he's not gonna get hosed by, what, 5 errors?  (Passed balls count as errors.)  So if they win this one, then tomorrow as I'd bet were I so inclined, they're up 3-2.  Going back to Milwaukee isn't *that* much of an edge.  

 

Going into bottom 13th.  32 strikeouts.  13 hits.  5 hours so far.  Modern baseball at its finest.

 

Oh and side point.  I'm beginning to really dislike Machado.  Ask me, he's a DIRTY player.  See the play where he quite clearly stutter-stepped AND changed his line, so his foot clipped the 1st baseman's ankle?  And plays sliding into 2nd have been borderline to VERY suspect.  EDIT:  OK, Machado just got a single, and he and the Brewers guy just had a chat that seemed friendly enough.  The play did NOT look good, tho.

[Badger]

Well, Machado threw a bat at Josh Donaldson a couple of years ago, because Donaldson dared to tag him earlier in the series.

[Pariah]

Lousy Dodgers.

[Pariah]

Manny Machado is an ass.

 

That is all.

[Badger]

I'm really not a fan of Machado insisting on being a SS.  SSs who can also hit get the glory whereas 3B largely get forgotten in time (very few HOF 3B, and at least one, Freddie Lindstrom is probably the least deserving to be in, he was a Vet Committee inductee, at a time where Frankie Frisch, a former teammate, was trying to get nearly any teammate of his whoever had a semi-decent career in).  But, defensively Machado is just another SS, but as a 3B he is an all-timer.

[slikmar]

So, to keep my tv/mlb conspiracy alive, I present cowboy Joe West and replay robbing Jose Altuve of a 2 run HR in game 4. At worst should have been ground rule double.

[Badger]

I know the analytics hate the bunt.  But, last inning for the Brewers would have been a great

 

Already ahead by 3, Aguilar doubled to lead off, Moustakas intentionally walked.  2 on, no out,  a successful bunt gets you out of a double play situation and 2 men in scoring position with one out.  Even a failed bunt that takes out the lead runner, eliminates the slow-mo Aguilar and gives better basrunning.  So, the brewers PH with Curtis Granderson (or as my Yankee fan dad called him when he was with them Kurtis Granderson).  And well Granderson did his usual Quixotic flailing at windmills.  (the brewers did score a run, but only because Grandal has forgotten how to block a pitch in the dirt*)

 

*Or as I call it "pull a Posey".  In honor of Buster Posey who in nearly every Giants' game I watch seems to let at least one pitch clank around the ballpark.  

[unclevlad]

On the bunt, nice story here.  Scroll down for the table.

 

https://batflipsandnerds.com/2018/10/06/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-bunt/

 

So, runners on 1st and 2nd, none out.  Probability of scoring at all...61%.  If you sac bunt, it's 2nd and 3rd with 1 out.  Probability of scoring goes to 67%.
 

THAT ASSUMES IT WORKS.  But that's only 1 outcome.  Poor bunt, runner is thrown out at 3rd...probability drops to 40% with 1st and 2nd and 1 out.  Another case:  batter pops out, or somewhat more likely, fouls off a couple attempts then strikes out.   If this happens 1 time in 4, you're seeing no net gain.  Now, combine this with the fact that almost no one can bunt competently, and the failure rate is quite probably much higher than 25%.  

 

Now, there are cases where you should.  A generally weak hitter coming up?  Manager might bunt there, that's true.  BUT, quite often they...panic?  Take the easy way out?  Think only in the moment?  Whatever.  QUITE often they send up the pinch hitter, despite the MANY downsides involved.

 

Mind, it could be worse.  The flip side here is in college baseball, where many older coaches seemingly ALWAYS sac bunt...even with their 3 hitter with a .380 average, in a game that's already 5-4 in the top of the 4th.  (I.e., Runs Will Score!)  I HATE this;  ok, it fits with my bias, that college coaches quite often are little tin-plated martinets who are looking after their own interests first.

[slikmar]

17 hours ago, Badger said:

I know the analytics hate the bunt.  But, last inning for the Brewers would have been a great

 

Already ahead by 3, Aguilar doubled to lead off, Moustakas intentionally walked.  2 on, no out,  a successful bunt gets you out of a double play situation and 2 men in scoring position with one out.  Even a failed bunt that takes out the lead runner, eliminates the slow-mo Aguilar and gives better basrunning.  So, the brewers PH with Curtis Granderson (or as my Yankee fan dad called him when he was with them Kurtis Granderson).  And well Granderson did his usual Quixotic flailing at windmills.  (the brewers did score a run, but only because Grandal has forgotten how to block a pitch in the dirt*)

 

*Or as I call it "pull a Posey".  In honor of Buster Posey who in nearly every Giants' game I watch seems to let at least one pitch clank around the ballpark.  

Grandad has had a horrible time behind plate. I had thought he was better then this, but I don't follow Dodgers enough. He and their defense, which they don't seem to care about with all the interchangeable players, cost them game 1. It showed kershaw with 4 earned runs, but he made pitches to get out of the bad inning and his team booted the ball around.

[Pariah]

Having just confirmed that the temperature in hell is above freezing, I'm forced at this point to root for the Brewers in game 7 of the NLCS.

 

If it ends up being a Dodgers-Red Sox World Series, I'll just go ahead and consider baseball season done.

[Badger]

5 hours ago, unclevlad said:

On the bunt, nice story here.  Scroll down for the table.

 

https://batflipsandnerds.com/2018/10/06/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-bunt/

 

So, runners on 1st and 2nd, none out.  Probability of scoring at all...61%.  If you sac bunt, it's 2nd and 3rd with 1 out.  Probability of scoring goes to 67%.
 

THAT ASSUMES IT WORKS.  But that's only 1 outcome.  Poor bunt, runner is thrown out at 3rd...probability drops to 40% with 1st and 2nd and 1 out.  Another case:  batter pops out, or somewhat more likely, fouls off a couple attempts then strikes out.   If this happens 1 time in 4, you're seeing no net gain.  Now, combine this with the fact that almost no one can bunt competently, and the failure rate is quite probably much higher than 25%.  

 

Now, there are cases where you should.  A generally weak hitter coming up?  Manager might bunt there, that's true.  BUT, quite often they...panic?  Take the easy way out?  Think only in the moment?  Whatever.  QUITE often they send up the pinch hitter, despite the MANY downsides involved.

 

Mind, it could be worse.  The flip side here is in college baseball, where many older coaches seemingly ALWAYS sac bunt...even with their 3 hitter with a .380 average, in a game that's already 5-4 in the top of the 4th.  (I.e., Runs Will Score!)  I HATE this;  ok, it fits with my bias, that college coaches quite often are little tin-plated martinets who are looking after their own interests first.

 

Well the catcher Kratz was due up if I recall, and they blew a pinch hitter.  Admittedly I forgot to think of the pop up angle in the moment.  I was thinking Aguilar being the lead runner would be somewhat iffy on getting to 3rd before a throw.  Even then,  you improve the baserunning situation, getting rid of Aguilar on the bases.  But, I do agree in making it in moderation (college coaches are ridiculous).  (also steals I guess, though I miss my 1980s basestealers of my youth)

 

Note: Also, interesting, how the analytical guys laud Earl Weaver (AKA pitching, defense, and the 3 run homer).  And how he hated the hit-and-run, and bunt.  Weak-hitting SS Mark Belanger led the AL twice in sacrifice bunts under Weaver.  Weaver did hate the bunt, but he was practical enough where I imagine he realized he get some value out of a weak bat, and keep that glove of his in the game (Belanger is possibly  the best defensive SS ever, including Ozzie Smith).  

 

2nd Note: And I don't hate analytics, but that too, should be in moderation.

 

Edit: Also, I think the analytical people are guilty of "assuming the would be bunter will get automatically get a hit"  (at least at a much higher percentage than they should).  Hitting away, wasn't necessarily a bad strategy either,  but double plays and strikeouts do hurt, despite the denial of such (well they do hate DPs, but Ks matter whether they choose to believe or not)

 

[archer]

I would have preferred Rockies - Red Sox but I'd settle for Dodgers - Red Sox.

 

I just have zero interest in seeing the Brewers on my TV screen.

[Badger]

I would prefer Dodgers. Simply for my dislike of Selig (Brewers owner before becoming commissioner)

 

Whoever wins, I want to be WS winners, I cant abide another Red Sox championship.