2018 Baseball Thread (MLB and whatever)

[Cancer]

Willie McCovey has died, at the age of 80.

 

Rest in peace, Stretch.

[Starlord]

yeah.....

[Badger]

One interesting tidbit about McCovey I found out years ago, he was the most often pinch ran for player in baseball history by a sizeable margin.  (Killebrew was 2nd)

 

[Christopher R Taylor]

Yeah, sad to read about McCovey, he was a real talent.

 

Dodgers fans are busy talking about what to do with the team now that they've lost two World Series in a row.  Personally I find making it to 2 in a row a pretty astounding achievement but apparently for many you have to win or you just suck.

 

I'd dump Machado and trade Puig.  Kershaw will probably stay although I'd be hesitant to give him a big contract.  Its not that he's not a good pitcher any longer, but he's not their ace any more and he gets hurt every year.  Plus, for some reason he almost totally stopped throwing his curve.  I'd deal Baez to get another closer, he's good but he's obnoxiously slow and I hate that kind of pitcher.  Freese is a great player but he's old and its probably not worth giving him long term contracts.

[Pariah]

2 hours ago, Christopher R Taylor said:

Dodgers fans are busy talking about what to do with the team now that they've lost two World Series in a row.

 

Call Buffalo Bills fans and get some perspective.

[Christopher R Taylor]

Well yeah I don't get that, the Bills were to the Superbowl four years in a row, that's incredible.  Not winning is frustrating but FOUR YEARS.  There's no definition by which "they suck" makes sense.

[Badger]

Dodgers fans had that experience in Brooklyn.  (kept getting buzzsawed by the Yankees at their peak of peaks in the 1940s/50s)

 

Kershaw and the curveball doesn't make sense, unless it hurts him more throwing it.  Right now it is probably his best pitch  (if nothing else to change up the speed from his dwindling fastball and slider)

 

But, I really wouldn't see them needing Machado, Seager comes back to settle SS, and even if Machado was willing to become a 3B again, they have Turner.  Probably should spend the extra money on pitching.  (not sure what they can do for hitting,  seems 2B and C are the only sort of weakspots. And in any case they have had a deep bench, so mix and match of Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez, Austin Barnes, and Grandal seem to work well in the regular season at least.)

 

In any case playoffs are always going to be a crapshoot in baseball  (even most awful teams will win near 40% of the time in the regular season) the more rounds you have.

 

 

[archer]

Very sad to see the Dodgers lose again (which is something to say for a Rockies fan).

 

Anyway, on to next year.

 

The Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles were two of the worst teams in baseball last time around.*

 

Which of those two team do you think are more likely to make the playoffs in 2019 (or barring that, which will have the better record)?

 

 

*Assuming you consider what the American League does to be "baseball".

[Cygnia]

Taking the trophy to Puerto Rico: Seeing the Red Sox parade on the island through social media

[Grailknight]

3 hours ago, archer said:

Very sad to see the Dodgers lose again (which is something to say for a Rockies fan).

 

Anyway, on to next year.

 

The Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles were two of the worst teams in baseball last time around.*

 

Which of those two team do you think are more likely to make the playoffs in 2019 (or barring that, which will have the better record)?

 

 

*Assuming you consider what the American League does to be "baseball".

 

The Rangers will be better than the Orioles by far. The Rangers would be  decent if they had a little improvement from their youngsters and sign a couple of pitchers. The Orioles are headed for 2-3 more seasons of 100+ losses.

[unclevlad]

3 hours ago, archer said:

The Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles were two of the worst teams in baseball last time around.*

 

Which of those two team do you think are more likely to make the playoffs in 2019 (or barring that, which will have the better record)?

 

 

*Assuming you consider what the American League does to be "baseball".

 

Orioles don't have a snowball's chance of making the playoffs.  There's no reason why a team loses a near-record number of games...because there's a hundred reasons.  They're top to bottom BAD.  Baseball is a game where no one player can make *that* much of an improvement.  25th in team slugging, LAST in team ERA, 29 in team ERA+ (tweaks for the effects of home park).

 

It's at least possible the Rangers can pull it off, but it's not at all likely.  No reason to see Astros fade just yet, so they have to go the WC route.  But it's likely Sox and Yanks also stay up there, so there's only one spot left.  A's, Mariners, and Rays were all pretty good.  Now, it's wildly unlikely all 3 will *stay* good...but by the same token, I don't see all 3 of them fading.  

 

And neither team has a particularly rich minor league talent pool...both are basically middle of the pack, as of forecasts from the end of this year's minor league season.

 

Between them, well, you gotta figure the Rangers will have more wins, because they're starting from 20 games ahead.  Plus, they don't have to face *2* juggernaut teams in their division...just 1.

[Badger]

5 hours ago, archer said:

Very sad to see the Dodgers lose again (which is something to say for a Rockies fan).

 

Anyway, on to next year.

 

The Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles were two of the worst teams in baseball last time around.*

 

Which of those two team do you think are more likely to make the playoffs in 2019 (or barring that, which will have the better record)?

 

 

*Assuming you consider what the American League does to be "baseball".

 

Rangers easily, the Orioles are the complete disaster, probably take a half decade to repair it.  The Rangers are just about 90% a disaster.

 

Note: And yes I prefer the AL, because I prefer the DH.  

[Badger]

Oh and if I have to have Chris Davis and his contract on my team, I have him on the bench.  He is much more valuable not playing.  (maybe use him as a defensive replacement, though the metrics say he slipped there, too)

 

 

[unclevlad]

DH vs. no DH...

 

As things stand now, I don't think there's a good argument against the DH.  Specialization is fundamentally the rule for all but the top 10% of players, regardless of position.  If we can't teach hitters to go the other way to beat the shift, regardless of the situation, then why should pitchers be compelled to hit?  All we ever want is dingers;  strikeouts are fine, even with the bases loaded and no one out.  The notion that the DH is "not baseball" is fundamentally ludicrous now, with the way the game has moved.  

 

Yeah, it bites.  The current game is DULL...and that's saying something, as baseball's never been consistently a high-action game.

 

I also think the direction of the "opener" is gonna take hold more and more *in the American League*....because it's so much easier to implement with a DH.  Not all the time, but at least in spots.  If it works, then there'll be more incentive for the National League to do it, and thus more pressure for them to adopt the DH.  And I do *loathe* that one team has it, and the other doesn't.  That's just asinine, IMO.

[Badger]

Yeah, with 13-man pitching staffs, you just don't have enough bench to justify hitting for a pitcher late in the game.  Unless you have a good hitting pitcher  (and if you look back 40 years ago, they were scarce then.  If you take out one year aberrations.  You could count consistent .200+ hitting pitchers on one hand, 2 at most.).  And yeah the opener throws a cramp on the NL batting order.  I suppose the home NL team could put the pitcher's spot at the top of the order and pinch hit at the bottom of the inning.  But, even then, while you avoid a pitcher batting until the 10-11-12 batter, he will be batting in a spot that requires a good hitter.  And, even the PH the first time through is likely an inferior hitter to the normal top of the order (if he wasn't, he'd be starting as there are no more PH-specialists) and besides you burn a bench spot in the 1st inning.

 

Though, I have like the DH spot for a long time.  I have always felt the "strategy" of the pitcher batting is overrated.   Not really as complicated as made out to be (unless you are Dusty Baker) and I rarely am surprised at a PH for pitcher, or double switch.  Just seems it is strategy based on quantity of moves rather than quality.  90% of modern managing seems to be the bullpen juggle, anyway.

 

I admit fascination with the opener. If your weak starter is pitching 5 innings, might as well go 2-6 rather 1-5 and make the top of the order face more pitchers, instead of the bottom.  But, at the same time, using it regularly,  I'd rather limit it to 2-3 teams doing so regularly, and other teams being more sporadic in usage and pick their spots with it  (say only 5th starter, maybe 4th, depending on rotation strength.  More against lineups that are top-heavy.  Or possibly against juggernauts that burn through opposing pitchers quickly,  say 5-10 times a year)

 

Note: Actually, the opener idea in a fashion was thought up by a mathematician named Earnshaw Cook, in the early 60s.  To use a reliever first for a couple of innings, then bring in the starter, then bring in another reliever in the late innings.  Though, his idea was primarily on limiting the pitcher hitting to only once a game in the mid-innings (2nd time through the order).  He was focused almost singularly on offense optimization.  (he also believed in a simple batting order, of simply greatest to weakest-so Bonds would have been a leadoff man?-which I suppose was in some ways a forerunner to sabermetrics optimized lineup.  Which I don't feel like going into right now, as I've talked out. 

[Christopher R Taylor]

Best argument against the DH is the fact that its crappy baseball.  If you want to have a 13-man pitching staff, that's your choice to be stupid and have no depth, nobody is forcing you to hurt your own team by cutting pinch hitters, runners, and backups for injuries.  Hell why stop at 13?  You have your starting 8 men on defense, who needs ANY backups?  Just have a massive bullpen of 17 6'5 guys who throw 105 miles an hour for two years then ruin themselves, they can be replaced easy enough by some starving Haitian kid.  Tell all your guys to swing up as hard as possible and try to get home runs and then hope you strike everyone out!

[Badger]

Well, I will say watching a pitcher bat is crappy (assuming you don't use that time more wisely to stock up on food and drink )

 

Though, I don't really have anything against pitchers hitting.  Just don't tell me that the decision between PH (or double switches) or not is some grandly complicated decision.  It's not really.  99% of the time, it pretty much by the book.  

 

I'd argue that if you want to build an "NL-style" team, the DH is more suitable.  If you have that Vince Coleman, Billy Hamilton type speedster with the low OBP.  You can bat him anywhere you want in the lineup within reason.  Without worrying, about his speed wasting away, being bunted to 2nd by the pitcher.  Whereas, in the NL, he pretty much has to be stuck at leadoff, or move the pitcher up to 8th and bat the guy 9th.  (I detest batting the pitcher 8th, and a speedy guy loses a portion of his value in front of the pitcher*)

 

*Michael Taylor of the Nationals has stolen a couple of bases with the pitcher batting recently, but before him I hadn't seen that happen in over 20 years.  I think the last time I saw it was Royce CLayton doing that with the Cardinals.  (pre-McGwire Cards at that)

 

 

[Christopher R Taylor]

Quote

Just don't tell me that the decision between PH (or double switches) or not is some grandly complicated decision.  It's not really.

 

Let's put it this way: its more complex than letting the DH just hit again.  And again.  And again.  Its actual strategy, and requires thought and consideration: do I want to pull him yet?

And given the performances by pitchers in the post season or by guys like Arieta and Bungardner pitch, if you go get, a drink you're missing out.  I get it, if you only watch AL you don't realize that there are some great batting pitchers out there

[Badger]

1 hour ago, Christopher R Taylor said:

 

Let's put it this way: its more complex than letting the DH just hit again.  And again.  And again.  Its actual strategy, and requires thought and consideration: do I want to pull him yet?

And given the performances by pitchers in the post season or by guys like Arieta and Bungardner pitch, if you go get, a drink you're missing out.  I get it, if you only watch AL you don't realize that there are some great batting pitchers out there

 

Yeah, but the great hitting pitchers can be counted on one hand.  2018 Chris Davis will be a better option than about 90%.  COurse, I watch plenty of NL games,  (most of the games I end up watching are either Bal or Was, depending on what mood MASN is in that day).  So, I don't mind the NL rules, and if I only had to see occasionally might actually consider it fun.  But, unless it is Max Scherzer day, I'm not going to see anything interesting that often.  Just trying to be realistic there.  

 

Also, more decisions doesn't really equal better.  But, it isn't like I'd cry if the DH disappeared (nor if the hitting pitcher did either).  (if there were any Manny Mota or Lenny Harris type still in existence, the NL rules would also be more interesting*).  I prefer the DH, but it doesn't matter that much.

 

*Well those guys possibly still exist, amongst the career AAA 1B/OFs that get invited to spring training every year, and disappear back down to minor league camp by mid-March.  

 

 

[slikmar]

So, not to suggest there is a red sox bias, but how does Ian Kinsler win a gold glove for 2nd base when he was traded in july to Boston from Angels, only played part time for Angels due to couldnt hit.

[Michael Hopcroft]

On 11/2/2018 at 7:16 AM, Christopher R Taylor said:

Yeah, sad to read about McCovey, he was a real talent.

 

Dodgers fans are busy talking about what to do with the team now that they've lost two World Series in a row.  Personally I find making it to 2 in a row a pretty astounding achievement but apparently for many you have to win or you just suck.

 

I'd dump Machado and trade Puig.  Kershaw will probably stay although I'd be hesitant to give him a big contract.  Its not that he's not a good pitcher any longer, but he's not their ace any more and he gets hurt every year.  Plus, for some reason he almost totally stopped throwing his curve.  I'd deal Baez to get another closer, he's good but he's obnoxiously slow and I hate that kind of pitcher.  Freese is a great player but he's old and its probably not worth giving him long term contracts.

Getting value for Puig could be a problem, or even deciding what value is. Puig is an extraordinary talent, is clutch when things are on the line, and wants to win. He is also a massive head case. The Dodgers have never really gotten his full potential out of him because they can't live with his behavior. But I suspect that if you try to turn him into a model citizen he won't be as good. I don't think they can find a team that will give them close to value in trade unless they are simply trading him to get his out of their hair -- which could be a mistake.

 

On a related note, the M's just traded up-and-coming catcher Mike Zunino for an outfielder whose name I don't remember. They've been right on the egde of the wild card races the last two seasons, but haven't made the next step to contending. Nelson Cruz can still hit it out and Robinson Cano isn''t quite finished (despite the poor judgment that cost him about half of 2018). But Felix Hernandez clearly doesn;t have the stuff any more to be a premier MLB pitcher. Ideally they can find a way to let him finish his career as a Mariner, but that's mainly for sentiment -- if your goal is the World series he's a third or fourth starter at best at this twilight stage of his career. A quality free agent signing would do wonders for the morale of Mariners fans, but other than Cano the ownership has not shown a lot of willingness to spend money.

[Christopher R Taylor]

I think the M's should deal Cano, he's not great for team chemistry and got nailed for performance enhancing drugs.

 

I agree on Puig, he's a tremendous talent but his head is such a mess you rarely get the benefit of that, and that's tough to trade.

[Badger]

On ‎11‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 1:41 PM, slikmar said:

So, not to suggest there is a red sox bias, but how does Ian Kinsler win a gold glove for 2nd base when he was traded in july to Boston from Angels, only played part time for Angels due to couldnt hit.

 

Rafael Palmeiro won a GG playing 28 games at 1B one year.  

 

The big surprise is he won despite not being able to hit.  (since my childhood I've noticed the GG winners almost always need to able to hit to justify winning a fielding award because......just because)

[unclevlad]

I doubt Manny Mota types ever make even AAA today.  Or ok, maybe makes AAA, but not a snowball's chance of more.  No pop.  Just under 3800 ABs in his career...31 home runs.  Not that many doubles either...only 125.  Granted it was the pitching-heavy era, but singles hitters who aren't consistent Gold Glove candidates don't make it.  Defensively, most of his starts were in left;  that's almost a dump spot nowadays for another 30 HR, 150 SO bat that hopefully won't make TOO many errors.

 

Christopher:

 

Quote

 

Let's put it this way: its more complex than letting the DH just hit again.  And again.  And again.  Its actual strategy, and requires thought and consideration: do I want to pull him yet?

 

But it's not, 95% of the time.  5th inning or later...yes, you pull him if you're down, barring fairly narrow situations.  Who you gonna let pitch a third time through the lineup in the first place?  

[Christopher R Taylor]

Quote

Who you gonna let pitch a third time through the lineup in the first place?  

 

Until the last few years?  Your ace.  Especially now that the batters refuse to adjust to the count or the game situation and just are fixated on launch angle and exit velocity.

 

Nolan Ryan threw a no-hitter with over 200 pitches.