The 2020 Baseball Thread

[unclevlad]

And the managerial carousel continues;  White Sox can Renteria.  Pariah bemoans how the Rockies blew their start...the Sox nosedived at the end of the season to drop from fighting for the #1 seed, to the 7 seed.  Admittedly, it was somewhat bad luck to be in the AL Central;  35-25 would've been 2nd in any other division.  BUT, they can't blame anyone but themselves...they finished the regular season 3-12.  5-10 would've been enough to be the 2nd seed.

 

Of course, one can argue it hardly would've mattered, in the sense that the 2-7 seeds were all fairly clustered...and, of course, the Astros have moved through 2 rounds as a sub-.500 8 seed.  This season, any differences between the teams seem lost in random noise....

 

And, yeah, the Trop is a disaster of a stadium.  The problem isn't that it's a domed stadium;  it's that it was so badly designed, at least for baseball.  Yeah, I'd love to see it go by the wayside, but its replacement will *have* to be another dome or a retractable roof.  I think the bigger problem is the general egos of owners...can they NOT build The Next Greatest Stadium Ever Built?  Especially given that Kroenke just decided, it seems, to flip a bird at Jerry Jones, as he built SoFi.  $5.5 BILLION.  Freakin' crazy.  But even if you keep it within shouting distance of almost sane...$1B would almost be bare-bones for a retractable roof these days.  That isn't easy for many locals to swallow, in any area.

 

 

[Pariah]

If a guy wants to build a $5.5B stadium with his own money, more power to him. I've go no problem with that.

 

When a guy worth billions wants to build a $1B stadium and claims he needs public funds to do it...yeah, screw that guy.

 

YMMV, of course.

[unclevlad]

Well, hey, you can't argue with *2* game 7s....and major comebacks.

 

Dodgers outfield has been incredible, with the catches they've made throughout this series.  ARod gets the stat of the night.  How good a defensive player is Mookie Betts?  He leads the majors in defensive runs saved by a right fielder (just to keep things directly comparable) since 2016, with 104.  Second best...56.  Even if you're not particularly fond of these synthetic measures, *that large* a discrepancy is huge.

 

So the Dodgers have come back from 3-1 down to force game 7;  time to see if the Rays can avoid the CHOKE!!!! label.  Up 3-0...now it's game 7.

[Pariah]

...and the Asstros are out. Excellent. 

 

Maybe in Game 7 of the NLCS the Braves can get their heads out if wherever they've been keeping them and eliminate the hated Dodgers as well.

[slikmar]

You know, the thing being lost in all this: If Dodgers win today, the 2 number 1 seeds will have gone to world series. Not something, in the era of the wild card, that has happened much.

Atlanta, I think early in the series, really benefited from having young pitcher that the Dodgers had never seen before. As the series has gone on, you have seen their offense come to life.

[unclevlad]

I think the Dodgers also have a couple more consistent hitters;  they're not so dominated by power alone, with its inherent inconsistency.

 

 

[unclevlad]

Playoff rule #1.  TAKE ADVANTAGE OF YOUR OPPORTUNITIES.

Playoff rule #2.  MISTAKES KILL YOU.

 

Runners on 2nd and 3rd in a tie ball game with none out for the Braves.  Runner goes on contact...on a, IIRC, one-hopper to 3rd.  Short throw.  Runner's dead meat.  THEN TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...the stupid runner on 2nd botches trying to take 3rd.  He's got to commit fully when the runner starts turning towards home...he hesitated.  And got thrown out.

 

Base running 2002...gotta hate it.  From 2nd and 3rd, none out, probably expect to score, what, 1 to 1.5 runs?  To 2 out, runner on 1st.  Fat chance at that point.

 

Fine, the game was still tied but that kinda thing is a killer.  And so it turned out.  Braves never sniffed after that.

[Badger]

I do know my dad's pet peeve is runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs, going on contact. Too many outs at home, and a needless sacrifice of 2 bases.

Just now, Badger said:

I do know my dad's pet peeve is runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs, going on contact. Too many outs at home, and a needless sacrifice of 2 bases.

Of course, I should mention my dad really doesn't Braves nor Dodgers much, and probably slept through the game.

 

He does kind of admire the Ray's despite being a di isional rival.

 

 

[unclevlad]

1 minute ago, Badger said:

I do know my dad's pet peeve is runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs, going on contact. Too many outs at home, and a needless sacrifice of 2 bases.

 

Baserunning is ABYSMAL these days.  I can't even begin to count the number of times I saw a first or third out made at 3rd base, for example.  Runner on 1st, 2 out, down 2...gets picked off.  This play.  Not knowing when to go halfway or 1/3 of the way or back to the bag altogether.

 

Personally, I blame coaching across the board.  At lower levels, they're too busy trying to get the basics in place.  Later on, tho, the obsession with the grooved swing, with the killer fastball...situational ball goes by the wayside.  There's too much of a rush to get the talented players to the bigs;  the lesser players are training their basics to move up.  So it probably doesn't happen in the minors enough.  

[Pariah]

Tampa Bay won the Stanley Cup.

 

Los Angeles won the NBA Championship.

 

The World Series is the tiebreaker.

[slikmar]

13 hours ago, Badger said:

I do know my dad's pet peeve is runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs, going on contact. Too many outs at home, and a needless sacrifice of 2 bases.

Of course, I should mention my dad really doesn't Braves nor Dodgers much, and probably slept through the game.

 

He does kind of admire the Ray's despite being a di isional rival.

 

 

 

13 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

Baserunning is ABYSMAL these days.  I can't even begin to count the number of times I saw a first or third out made at 3rd base, for example.  Runner on 1st, 2 out, down 2...gets picked off.  This play.  Not knowing when to go halfway or 1/3 of the way or back to the bag altogether.

 

Personally, I blame coaching across the board.  At lower levels, they're too busy trying to get the basics in place.  Later on, tho, the obsession with the grooved swing, with the killer fastball...situational ball goes by the wayside.  There's too much of a rush to get the talented players to the bigs;  the lesser players are training their basics to move up.  So it probably doesn't happen in the minors enough.  

Yeah, the analysts - A-Rod, Smoltz and Pierzynski this whole playoffs have been going crazy with these situations, especially, guy on third exaggerated shift on and first baseman or third baseman having to hold runner, why cant professional ball players push a ball that even if doesn't leave the dirt area, probably means a run.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

35 minutes ago, Pariah said:

Tampa Bay won the Stanley Cup.

 

Los Angeles won the NBA Championship.

 

The World Series is the tiebreaker.

 

Ooh, good point. Go Rays!

[Cancer]

Or is that To go, from Ray's?

[Michael Hopcroft]

33 minutes ago, Cancer said:

Or is that To go, from Ray's?

Ray's is in Seattle. I don't think I could make the trip.

 

I remember when Ivar's Acres of Clams had two locations -- a sit-down restaurant that I was frequently taken to when I was a child and my family took one of their frequent vacations to Seattle, and and a stand by the shore of Puget Sound in the waterfront district.  The sit-down restaurant is still there, but closed for the pandemic. They made exquisite clam chowder (from the opinion of a child, at least) in my day. Their Mukilteo restaurant is still open to limited seating, and looking at the menu their seafood menu (while above my pay grade in terms of cost) looks wonderful. (They also sell a hamburger, but eating a hamburger at a first-class seafood restaurant totally defeats the purpose.). I want to try the Dungeness Crab Bisque; it's not too expensive and sounds divine.

 

I wish I could still travel...

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, slikmar said:

Yeah, the analysts - A-Rod, Smoltz and Pierzynski this whole playoffs have been going crazy with these situations, especially, guy on third exaggerated shift on and first baseman or third baseman having to hold runner, why cant professional ball players push a ball that even if doesn't leave the dirt area, probably means a run.

 

My take on this is, we're not building pitchers or hitters, we're building robots.  Pitchers are trained to throw hard, harder, hardest;  hitters learn one single, grooved swing.  Both are massively overtrained to do that, and very nearly, that alone...robots.  

 

Brandon Lowe showed the good and bad sides of this, when he bunted against the shift.  He's having a *rough* postseason at the plate, so...ok, yeah, he did try to switch around, and bunt.  He pulled it off...it was a horrible bunt, but with no one in position, it worked just fine, thank you...got him a leadoff hit.  The play to advance the runner does have issues, tho;  Braves have the best possible situation for scoring at least one run, I think...runners on 2nd and 3rd, no out...and *botch* it.  They have bases loaded, none out, and get nothing.  Is it the power pitching...or the robotic, can't adjust, gotta blast every pitch out of the ballpark, approach to hitting?

 

If the '98 Yankees could be reprised today, I think they'd win 120 games because they knew how to play.

 

EDIT:  another aspect that I question is, do the metrics start considering the negative impact on the pitcher when he has runners on?  Because that's another common theme...pitchers don't like pitching with men on, and they tend to not do it as well.  Defenses feel more pressure;  a mistake often goes from costing a base, to costing a run.

 

 

[slikmar]

I remember in that bases loaded situation, Smoltz actually saying that, under the new ideal for hitting, that the pitcher wasn't in a bad spot (might have been game 6 with Buehler) because he could get a strikeout on the next batter (he did) and a potential double play or popout from the following batter (I believe he did that also).

[Pariah]

5 hours ago, Logan.1179 said:

Ooh, good point. Go Rays!

 

Look, I'm not an AL guy by any means, and the idea of Major League Baseball in Florida beyond spring training grates on my traditionalist sensibilities.

 

But it will be a very cold day in Hell before I'll root for the Dodgers.

 

Go Rays indeed.

[Badger]

10 hours ago, slikmar said:

 

Yeah, the analysts - A-Rod, Smoltz and Pierzynski this whole playoffs have been going crazy with these situations, especially, guy on third exaggerated shift on and first baseman or third baseman having to hold runner, why cant professional ball players push a ball that even if doesn't leave the dirt area, probably means a run.

My dad has been going crazy for years about, if they shift on you learn to bunt for a hit occasionally.   Mickey Mantle interestingly was one of the better bunt for a hitters ever.

 

As an aside, I was a decent hunter in high school, due to Brett Butler fandom.

[Michael Hopcroft]

My heart says to go for the Rays. They play well and smart, and what Tampa/St. Petersburg fans there are need a serious lift, just in case the team ends up relocating.

 

But I don't know if they can beat the Dodgers' pitching staff. If they can get hits off a slumping, injured Clayton Kershaw, it would give them a boost.

 

The Braves showed the Dodgers aren't quite a juggernaut, but they still came up with the clutch hitting to win Game 7.

[unclevlad]

If the Rays relocate, in large part it's because the area doesn't support them.  Their attendance in the last decade has been abysmal.  For the last 56 years it's been less than 60% of the AL average, and well under 50% capacity.  Well under 40% of capacity for 2018-9.  Their attendance situation was notably worse than, say, Miami...until the fire sale by Jeter et al. and the fan revolt.  Marlin's attendance was cut in half for those 2 years...but before then, it was 5-6000 people a night higher.

 

 

I think the bigger difference in the Series is that TB can only score with the home run.  Bottom of the 5th, Dodgers scored 4...walk, walk, double steal, strikeout, fielder's choice gets no outs (1 run scores), single (run scores), pop out, single, single for the last 2.  Manufacturing runs isn't something the Rays can do to any great degree.

[Michael Hopcroft]

It would be interesting to see the Rays local TV ratings. I wonder if the license fees from that recoup some of the losses incurred by the fact that most people in the area have problems even getting to the Trop. It's theorized that a new stadium closer to downtown Tampa would do wonders for the franchise's attendance. They've certainly been putting a quality produce on the field.

 

But I agree that the Dodgers' ability to manufacture runs may be a difference-maker. As is the Rays' difficulties in the field. Bellinger and Betts have been spectacular in the outfield.

 

I hope Vin Scully is enjoying this.

[Badger]

Yeah, Montreal always gets mentioned in relocation talks, apparently forgetting how the last 7 or 8 years of Expos attendance was like. (making Miami and Tampa look good)

 

The strike complicated things, and fans would likely come for a year or 2.  But, once the team has a rebuilding ebb would they be back to the Expos of that time and their troubles?

[unclevlad]

Oh my......

 

Talk about playing for a contract.

 

Randy Arozarena is on a 1-year deal this year with the Rays, for all of $563K.  

 

The regular season slash line was good, but the postseason....no one's gonna care there's no track record.  He's only 25, too;  figure he should be getting, maybe not Mike Trout level contract offers, but maybe 6-7 years, $150M...?  Maybe more?

 

Which also says there's VERY little chance he stays with the Rays...

[Michael Hopcroft]

25 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

Oh my......

 

Talk about playing for a contract.

 

Randy Arozarena is on a 1-year deal this year with the Rays, for all of $563K.  

 

The regular season slash line was good, but the postseason....no one's gonna care there's no track record.  He's only 25, too;  figure he should be getting, maybe not Mike Trout level contract offers, but maybe 6-7 years, $150M...?  Maybe more?

 

Which also says there's VERY little chance he stays with the Rays...

The problem with that is that revenue is plunging due to Covid. In 2021, attendance is likely to still be restricted because covid isn't going away by then. I know a large share of the revenue comes from TV, but even that viewership may well decline.

 

I don't have access to the balance sheets, but the sports/entertainment industries have been hit herd generally. Much of Minor League Baseball might not survive at all as none of the teams have a way to make money with restricted gates.

 

With covid extending through 2021 teams and sports will be in raw survival mode. There simply isn't the cash to give Arozarena the payday he deserves.

[Michael Hopcroft]

18 minutes ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

The problem with that is that revenue is plunging due to Covid. In 2021, attendance is likely to still be restricted because covid isn't going away by then. I know a large share of the revenue comes from TV, but even that viewership may well decline.

 

I don't have access to the balance sheets, but the sports/entertainment industries have been hit herd generally. Much of Minor League Baseball might not survive at all as none of the teams have a way to make money with restricted gates.

 

With covid extending through 2021 teams and sports will be in raw survival mode. There simply isn't the cash to give Arozarena the payday he deserves.

And Brian Cash (manager of the Rays) just committed one of the most wooden-headed managerial blunders you will ever see. He was apparently done in by his overreliance on analytics.