Coronavirus

[ScottishFox]

38 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

The travel industry is also going to take it on the chin, in the gut, and in the groin for a long time.  

 

One concern I have is that Hawaii is going to economically death spiral really hard off this for a couple years.

[Badger]

5 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

I do hope the shutdown release works out.  Arizona and Texas are very lucky in that they are very spread out and they are very warm.  Under most circumstances I'd be highly concerned, but for the location.  I still think it's not great for the cities.

 

We are near the end of the normal flu season, but I think corona's been wandering in the US for only a part of that time.  February is the peak flu time for the US, and it only was just starting to spread then.

 

Yeah,  I've been thinking, that this the type of thing, we can probably be alright to allow the rural areas to slowly open.  

 

Not to hard, to keep distance around here, except for a few idiots that don't understand the concept of personal space. 

[Iuz the Evil]

4 minutes ago, Badger said:

 

Yeah,  I've been thinking, that this the type of thing, we can probably be alright to allow the rural areas to slowly open.  

 

Not to hard, to keep distance around here, except for a few idiots that don't understand the concept of personal space. 

The rural and less populous Counties in CA are the ones really fighting this. They actually have a rational argument, although others may differ... hard to justify months (now almost 2) of closure with zero cases. Rolling shelter at home might have impacted them less, but it is what it is. 

[unclevlad]

16 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

 

One concern I have is that Hawaii is going to economically death spiral really hard off this for a couple years.

 

Vegas.  Due to the...ill-advised comments of their mayor ("sure, let's re-open the casinos in the name of science!!")...that led to more reading.  30% of their economy is travel and tourism.

Atlantic City was already hurting.

 

3 minutes ago, Badger said:

 

Yeah,  I've been thinking, that this the type of thing, we can probably be alright to allow the rural areas to slowly open.  

 

Not to hard, to keep distance around here, except for a few idiots that don't understand the concept of personal space. 

 

That's my problem.  5% would be a statistical minority...but if that's the number of people who act idiotically, that's begging for a New Orleans-style surge.  And I'd be happy if it was ONLY 5%.  But we all know I'm a pessimist....

[Ternaugh]

14 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

 

Vegas.  Due to the...ill-advised comments of their mayor ("sure, let's re-open the casinos in the name of science!!")...that led to more reading.  30% of their economy is travel and tourism.

Atlantic City was already hurting.

 

 

That's my problem.  5% would be a statistical minority...but if that's the number of people who act idiotically, that's begging for a New Orleans-style surge.  And I'd be happy if it was ONLY 5%.  But we all know I'm a pessimist....

 

The floor in front of every public entrance at work is marked with tape to indicate where the queue line for the temperature scanner will go. Employees will also be required to have their temperature taken before being allowed in the back of house. There's a plan to remove a number of slot machines. Some are being removed to facilitate the scanner stations, while others are being removed to allow for social distancing. Table games will be removing every other chair, and people won't be allowed to congregate and watch others play. I honestly don't know what Poker is going to do. Some restaurants are opening after the removal of multiple tables, others aren't opening. If the buffet opens, it will be with gloved food servers who will dish up what the patron wants, and hand them the plate (no self-serve). Hand sanitizer dispensers are liberally distributed throughout the property, the casino cage has a dispenser between each window for patrons. I don't expect concerts or conventions to be a thing for quite a while.

 

I'm very lucky that my employer decided to pay us through at least May 15, and they converted about 700 part-timers to full time to allow them full access to the health plan (HMO is free for the employee). I'm part of the IT department, so I'm supposed to work from home and go in when needed. Some departments are marked as essential, and they have some of their staff present throughout the day.

 

I live in Paradise, NV, which is an unincorporated township to the south of the city of Las Vegas, that holds most of the Strip, McCarran International Airport, UNLV, and a bunch of other points of interest. Most folks still just call it Las Vegas, though (and I'd bet that many don't even know that they're living in Paradise). The mayor has no jurisdiction here, and technically the Gaming Control Board would have to make the decision on whether or not a casino can reopen, so thankfully, it's not up to her.

[Michael Hopcroft]

1 hour ago, Old Man said:

 

Well, some people will.  But this is the funny thing about the push to "reopen America"--a lot of people aren't going to restaurants and theaters any time soon.  A lot of employers aren't going to rehire 100% of their workers right away.  A lot of people are going to keep working from home and not buying gas.  Since the extreme lockdown only barely managed to drive R0 down to 1, I have the sneaking suspicion that the reopening will allow a second wave of the virus without actually preventing economic disaster.  As always, I hope I'm wrong.

 

edit: Here's a preview of what reopening is going to look like.  Remember, if there's no stay at home order, you can't get unemployment.  You can go to work in a hot zone, or you can quit.

That is probably why conservative states are opening too soon. They fear the cost of unemployment pay, esdpecially if Federal promises to help pay for it go astray as it appears they will. At the same time, it's brutal for workers -- who always get the wrong end of the stick these days, in goodf times or bad.

 

Workers of the world, despair. The Class Struggle is over -- and you lost.

[Michael Hopcroft]

3 minutes ago, Ternaugh said:

I live in Paradise, NV, which is an unincorporated township to the south of the city of Las Vegas, that holds most of the Strip, McCarran International Airport, UNLV, and a bunch of other points of interest. Most folks still just call it Las Vegas, though (and I'd bet that many don't even know that they're living in Paradise). The mayor has no jurisdiction here, and technically the Gaming Control Board would have to make the decision on whether or not a casino can reopen, so thankfully, it's not up to her.

So you really can buy two tickets to Paradise.

 

On my one visit to Vegas, my main thought was "What a bad place to build a city". I went in March, and it was already unbearably hot outside during the day. The air conditioning bills for everyone must be brutal. In retrospect, I wish the casino floors and hotel bars served Gatorade -- I sweated in exactly the way pigs don't.

 

But I did go to (or through) Paradise on that trip -- I flew in at that airport and stayed at the Orleans. It was for the GAMA Trade Show, where I got to meet up with a bunch of people I knew in RPG publishing. I should have resisted the urge to venture out of the hotel -- it was actually rather pleasant inside, one of the food court stalls made a killer sugar-free vanilla steamer. I enjoyed the food, but put very little money into the casino. And the room was quite comfortable. It was venturing outside that was the mistake,

[Cygnia]

My father in law tested negative, thankfully.

 

[Michael Hopcroft]

This whole thing is pushing a lot of people over the edge...

[ScottishFox]

South Dakota is very sparsely populated AND did not shut down at all.

 

Cases: 2313

Deaths: 11

Mortality Rate of Confirmed Cases: 0.48%

Overall Mortality Rate: 0.0012%

 

Case Trajectory:

 

I wonder if more of the so-called fly-over states couldn't have gone this way without significant economic damage.  I would NOT have recommended this for big population centers.

[Cygnia]

[Starlord]

Beware of Acro-ischemia or "Covid-toes"

[Old Man]

No state has met the 14-day drop in cases required to justify easing stay-at-home restrictions

 

 

[ScottishFox]

42 minutes ago, Old Man said:

No state has met the 14-day drop in cases required to justify easing stay-at-home restrictions

 

 

 

I wonder how they're determining that because some states have seen a very large drop in daily cases and since the recovery time is around 14 days for mild cases (which is most of them).

I find this hard to believe.  Unless maybe they're applying the 4-6 week range for severe and critical cases to all confirmed cases and ignoring the unreported cases.

 

For Example:  Louisiana - The red arrow is at two weeks ago.

 

[mattingly]

 

[Old Man]

6 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

For Example:  Louisiana - The red arrow is at two weeks ago.

 

 

And the last increase looks like it was about three days ago. 

[Old Man]

COVID-19 has now officially killed more Americans in ten weeks than the Vietnam War killed in ten years.

[ScottishFox]

Just now, Old Man said:

 

And the last increase looks like it was about three days ago. 

 

Are you suggesting that every single day has to be lower than the day before for 14 consecutive days rather than a trend line that is going down?

 

That would be a bat-shit crazy way of doing things.  I mean, I wouldn't put it past the administration to *write* it that way, but that would be an irrational standard.

[Cygnia]

 

[csyphrett]

My mechanic told me that talk radio is stating that California is reporting every death as Corvid related. I'm thinking two things. Quit listening to talk radio because it's a bunch of scammers who know better. State governments are lazy, but not that lazy.

CES

[death tribble]

There has been a large increase in the number of deaths due to Coronavirus in the UK. This is due to deaths in the community being included. That was retrospective as well so it was not a case of a lot of people suddenly dying 

[Pariah]

7 hours ago, Cygnia said:

My father in law tested negative, thankfully.

 

 

That's preposterous. The only thing flat-Earthers have to fear is sphere itself.

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, ScottishFox said:

 

Are you suggesting that every single day has to be lower than the day before for 14 consecutive days rather than a trend line that is going down?

 

That would be a bat-shit crazy way of doing things.  I mean, I wouldn't put it past the administration to *write* it that way, but that would be an irrational standard.

 

I'm sure it was written that way to prevent people from looking at a chart and cherry picking data to support their own agenda.  Given that 14 days is the incubation time, if you still have any net case increases, then you still have community spread.  And if you still have community spread, the virus cannot be controlled with contact tracing.  The only other way to get a handle on the spread is with mass testing, which the administration has totally failed at.

 

Or we can cross our fingers and hope that remdesivir or some other treatment turns out to be a silver bullet, but that is some Obama-level irrational hope.

[Cancer]

from Nature: graphical guide to ways of constructing a vaccine for COVID

[Michael Hopcroft]

IIRC, the current COVID-19 death count includes only those that can be verified by available means -- usually people that died in the hospital. Of the many more people who died at home, how many of their deaths were caused by the virus with very few people knowing it? And what happens if (and I hope this doesn't happen) someone dies by suicide after developing COVID-19 symptoms? Do those count as COVID-19 deaths?

 

The point is we may never know the number of people who actually died as a result of this virus -- and that the death count is underreported with no way to correct the figure.

 

I've been told to expect to spend another month in isolation. That sounds so incredibly unfun that words fail.