Cygnia Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Scientists concerned that coronavirus is adapting to humans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pariah Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Starlord said: That's the way you do it! pinecone and ScottishFox 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ternaugh Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Testing at work today. Antibody test drew a few drops of blood from a finger, and the results were readable in a couple of minutes. Nasal swab was less fun, and my eyes were watering for several minutes afterward. That one gets sent into a lab. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 6 hours ago, Doc Democracy said: I think the danger is that the numbers have not dropped to close to zero. You see how quickly it went from one death to LOTS. if the virus is still in circulation then the infection rate could spike VERY quickly once distancing measures have gone into abeyance. There's a reason its' called "explosive growth". Because everything looks normal until it suddenly detonates in your face... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Cygnia said: Is this the one where he contradicted Trump's Chinese lab conspiracy theory and got defunded? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 59 minutes ago, Old Man said: Is this the one where he contradicted Trump's Chinese lab conspiracy theory and got defunded? I was curious about this story - the circumstances seem strange, and there's a lot of reasons someone could get legitimately canned (or canned for political reasons...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 Well, this turned into an interesting afternoon. Had a package incoming...didn't expect it until tomorrow, honestly. Lo and behold, mid-afternoon, doorbell rings. Huh? I do hear a small thump...hmmm. Well. That very much sounds like a package delivery. Open door...why, yes, yes it is. What was curious is the delivery. I'm looking out...it's a dark blue blue compact just pulling away. Huh? He goes down a couple doors as I watch...stops. Guy gets out to repeat. Yes, it's a USPS guy. They've separated out the package stuff from the regular mail. Different vehicles...it might've been an electric car, sure wasn't like the Jeep (or lookalike) that drops the mail at the communal box. Not sure if this was related to Covid-19 and FAR more packages being moved, or a harbinger of separating package service from mail service...and potentially cutting back, I'm thinking, on the 6-day-a-week delivery for regular mail. The former's certainly plausible, in that I've had a package arrive at 9:30, and some others in the area commented, as late as 10:30. Mixing up the everyday mail and the packages isn't particularly efficient for either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted May 11, 2020 Report Share Posted May 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Old Man said: Yeah... I think I mentioned the two-week lag when posting the Chinese data. It's nice to get confirmation that the lag estimate (at least) appears to be real. Reproduction rate is only a guestimate at the moment I'm sure - they'll need more data for longer to actually get a better idea of how fast it's spreading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottishFox Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 16 hours ago, Old Man said: Still, they have a long way to go to catch up to the current world champion of coronavirus, which alone accounts for 1/3 of all coronavirus cases in the universe. It seems beyond unlikely that we have 5% of the global population and 33% of the cases. We might have 33% of the reported cases, but I feel VERY confident that countries that have the other 95% of the global population have WAY more cases. They just don't have them tested, confirmed and reported. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 hour ago, ScottishFox said: It seems beyond unlikely that we have 5% of the global population and 33% of the cases. We might have 33% of the reported cases, but I feel VERY confident that countries that have the other 95% of the global population have WAY more cases. They just don't have them tested, confirmed and reported. That's why I don't measure against world numbers. China? Who doesn't think they're deliberately not reporting? India, Brazil? Kinda doubt they'd deliberately under-report, but their detection capabilities are suspect at best. If you take out those 3 countries, that's 3 billion people. Leaves ~ 4.8 billion, so the US is about 7%. If we stick with western Europe...Spain, italy, France, Germany, and the UK have combined populations of ~ 317M, versus the US' 330M. So very comparable. The US still has about 1/3 more cases than all 5 of them...but about 1/3 fewer deaths. Altho death statistics are nowhere near solid; I think expert consensus (by real experts, not political appointee hacks) is that deaths are probably significantly undercounted. There's a growing body of evidence that morbidity rates in several places are showing serious spikes far beyond what can be accounted for by attributed CV deaths. ScottishFox 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tkdguy Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 This happened last month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, tkdguy said: This happened last month And this is why we're going to have such a rough time. Throwing the party in the first place...come on. But the disregard to show up, with a cough, approaches callousness. We don't know how often this happens, but it takes so few moronic incidents like this to trigger a local outburst whose dimensions will be hard to predict. Not everyone is an utter jackass; darn few people are. That's the attendee with the cough. At best, things were gonna be bumper-to-bumper rush hour traffic...but there's too many willful, self-centered, unthinking idiots to make this less than a Tour de France peloton navigating the cobblestones around Roubaix...in the rain. tkdguy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNakagawa Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 3 hours ago, ScottishFox said: It seems beyond unlikely that we have 5% of the global population and 33% of the cases. We might have 33% of the reported cases, but I feel VERY confident that countries that have the other 95% of the global population have WAY more cases. They just don't have them tested, confirmed and reported. That's just our reported cases, too. It's not like this country is leading the world in tests conducted per capita. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 XKCD again on point Logan D. Hurricanes and tkdguy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh Neilson Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 10 hours ago, ScottishFox said: It seems beyond unlikely that we have 5% of the global population and 33% of the cases. We might have 33% of the reported cases, but I feel VERY confident that countries that have the other 95% of the global population have WAY more cases. They just don't have them tested, confirmed and reported. I feel it is very unlikely that the virus simply spreads through the atmosphere, and no actions taken by anyone have any impact. Lety's take a look at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ All figures are per 1 million population US: 4,188 cases, 247 deaths, 29,063 tests Spain 5,765 cases, 576 deaths, 52,781 tests. Way more tests; somewhat more cases UK 3,286 cases, 472 deaths, 28,309 tests - marginally less tests, considerably fewer cases Germany 2,060 cases (less than half US), 91 deaths, 32,891 tests - slightly more testing, far less cases - and way more efforts to slow the spread of the virus. Should that tell us anything? Canada 1,854 cases, 132 deaths, 30,099 tests - marginally more testing, far less cases - and greater efforts to slow the spread of the virus. Should that tell us something? I didn't pick countries you feel are more likely to cover up the spread of COVID than the US is, did I? Countries testing on a comparable leve who have taken more efforts to reduce the spread of the virus are seeing less cases and less deaths. And that includes the disastrous issues in Canadian long-term care facilities. The only plausible conclusion, I assume, is that the US is the sole nation on earth reporting their results honestly. Or is there a remote possibility that there is some other explanation? Lawnmower Boy and Matt the Bruins 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottishFox Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Hugh Neilson said: The only plausible conclusion, I assume, is that the US is the sole nation on earth reporting their results honestly. Or is there a remote possibility that there is some other explanation? Is it possible the two countries with 8.3x the US population are under-reporting their cases and/or lack the testing resources to test their billion plus person populations? It's one thing to suggest that American misbehavior has resulted in above-average per capita cases and another to just blanketly accept that it is more than 6x the global average. Maybe you just accept at face value that the USA has 16x as many cases as China which has 4x the population and was the source of the outbreak. Seems unlikely - to put it very mildly. Maybe you also believe that the USA has 19x as many cases as India which also has 4x the population and is geographically adjacent to the source of the outbreak. I don't accept that Americans are pulling down 64x or 76x the per capita case-load of these two global giants. Armory 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cancer Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 Opening up now seems like a risky idea Doc Democracy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 21 minutes ago, ScottishFox said: Is it possible the two countries with 8.3x the US population are under-reporting their cases and/or lack the testing resources to test their billion plus person populations? It's one thing to suggest that American misbehavior has resulted in above-average per capita cases and another to just blanketly accept that it is more than 6x the global average. Maybe you just accept at face value that the USA has 16x as many cases as China which has 4x the population and was the source of the outbreak. Seems unlikely - to put it very mildly. Maybe you also believe that the USA has 19x as many cases as India which also has 4x the population and is geographically adjacent to the source of the outbreak. I don't accept that Americans are pulling down 64x or 76x the per capita case-load of these two global giants. What's your point? Is there a massive belief that China is lying? Yes. Does India have a serious issue with medical infrastructure? Yes. Could these 2 countries have far more cases? Yes. We get that, so what's your point? What sorts of conclusions are you striving for? Cygnia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottishFox Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, unclevlad said: We get that, so what's your point? What sorts of conclusions are you striving for? My last couple posts were in response to Old Man's claim that the USA has 1/3rd of all cases on Earth. My point is - No, we don't. Pattern Ghost and Armory 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted May 12, 2020 Report Share Posted May 12, 2020 Why Are Masks Triggering Conflict and Rage? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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