Coronavirus

[Starlord]

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, ScottishFox said:

 

My last couple posts were in response to Old Man's claim that the USA has 1/3rd of all cases on Earth.

 

My point is - No, we don't.

 

I don't worry about it.   The claim was missing one word..."reported."  That's all.  Oversight.  Brain running past fingers.  No big deal.  Been there more times than I could possibly count.

[Steve]

A new website to look at: https://rt.live/

 

Most states look to be below an Rt number of 1, and some are getting really low now.

 

[TrickstaPriest]

11 minutes ago, Steve said:

A new website to look at: https://rt.live/

 

Most states look to be below an Rt number of 1, and some are getting really low now.

 

It's a good argument for opening up Rural areas specifically.

 

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

I don't worry about it.   The claim was missing one word..."reported."  That's all.  Oversight.  Brain running past fingers.  No big deal.  Been there more times than I could possibly count.

 

I mean, specificity is important when discussing intent, which is often unstated in people's arguments.

 

But regardless of whether we have a third of the reported cases, our standing in major first-world countries is notably poor compared to other countries (in actual testing rate if nothing else).  If I wanted to argue, I'd argue again the effect on our economy and country would have been far better had we had a proper plan and preparation ahead of time, but that's an argument for another time.

 

"cases relative to total testing done" isn't a bad metric, and you can use population density (over population size) as part of the factors when comparing the numbers.

 

I'm wondering what's going on with India.  I considered Asian and Middle Eastern areas to be particularly in danger, so I wonder whether there's overall death rate spikes.

[Old Man]

7 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

I'm wondering what's going on with India.  I considered Asian and Middle Eastern areas to be particularly in danger, so I wonder whether there's overall death rate spikes.

 

Modi instituted an extremely strict countrywide lockdown--stricter than anywhere in the U.S.--when the total number of reported cases in India was less than 500.

[Old Man]

Media corporation acknowledges pandemic reality, orders employees to work from home until at least mid-June

[Old Man]

24 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

It's a good argument for opening up Rural areas specifically.

 

 

Or it's a good indication that lockdown measures work.

[Old Man]

White House report shows coronavirus rates spiking in Midwestern communities

[TrickstaPriest]

13 minutes ago, Old Man said:

Or it's a good indication that lockdown measures work.

 

I don't doubt that is also demonstrated. 

 

The main reason I'm giving such a pass to Rural communities isn't to prevent cases, its that the case spikes shouldn't overwhelm resources there as easily and quickly as a major city.  It's just a product of the exponential spread problem.

 

That being said, I'd prefer to maintain fairly strict lockdown measures whenever possible.

[unclevlad]

42 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

I don't doubt that is also demonstrated. 

 

The main reason I'm giving such a pass to Rural communities isn't to prevent cases, its that the case spikes shouldn't overwhelm resources there as easily and quickly as a major city.  It's just a product of the exponential spread problem.

 

That being said, I'd prefer to maintain fairly strict lockdown measures whenever possible.

 

A flaw in this argument is, rural communities don't have many resources to handle an outbreak.  Transporting cases to sites that do?  That is gonna cost a small fortune.

 

The Rt is an important measure, but it's not the only one as well.  

 

That said, we need to reopen eventually, and doing so in more rural areas certainly makes more sense.  The bigger question in my mind is...how?  What does a limited reopening mean?  Under what principles?  With what support, to see how things progress?  What measures will be in place to keep the reopening area constrained to the low-risk zone?  

 

 

[tkdguy]

Elon Musk has reopened his Tesla factory despite the stay-at-home order

 

Hackers interrupt online graduation with racist slurs and a swastika

 

Some people!  

[TrickstaPriest]

49 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

A flaw in this argument is, rural communities don't have many resources to handle an outbreak.  Transporting cases to sites that do?  That is gonna cost a small fortune.

 

The Rt is an important measure, but it's not the only one as well.  

 

That said, we need to reopen eventually, and doing so in more rural areas certainly makes more sense.  The bigger question in my mind is...how?  What does a limited reopening mean?  Under what principles?  With what support, to see how things progress?  What measures will be in place to keep the reopening area constrained to the low-risk zone?  

 

Yep, the question is whether the resources in a rural community are exponentially or linearly lower.  But I wholly agree that it's very easy for a rural area to be flooded, or a hospital even bankrupted.

 

That's the real devil of the question, isn't it?

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, tkdguy said:

Elon Musk has reopened his Tesla factory despite the stay-at-home order

 

Hackers interrupt online graduation with racist slurs and a swastika

 

Some people!  

 

To start...of these 2 stories, which worries you more?

For me, it's the second, overall.  The rise of racist/supremacist movements is something much harder to combat.  Musk is an open issue.  An open sore too.

 

It also points out another issue with attempting targeted re-openings.  That is:  they create more loopholes through which some will try to cram their perceived justifications.  And, we can anticipate more of those Pasadena parties happening;  the morons who might already do it, will have increased leverage for social pressure to hook others in.

[tkdguy]

The racism has been bothering me quite a bit as well. The Asian community has often been blamed for the outbreak here, and many Asians have been harassed or assaulted. If it can happen in the San Francisco Bay Area, where the Asian community has long been a major part of the culture, I worry about what is happening in less diverse areas.

 

The one that bothers me the most about the Elon Musk issue is that the authorities seem to be content with letting him get away with flouting the law. Why? Because he's rich? If a small business did the same thing, I bet the authorities would quickly shut it down.

[Badger]

4 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

It's a good argument for opening up Rural areas specifically.

 

 

I mean, specificity is important when discussing intent, which is often unstated in people's arguments.

 

But regardless of whether we have a third of the reported cases, our standing in major first-world countries is notably poor compared to other countries (in actual testing rate if nothing else).  If I wanted to argue, I'd argue again the effect on our economy and country would have been far better had we had a proper plan and preparation ahead of time, but that's an argument for another time.

 

"cases relative to total testing done" isn't a bad metric, and you can use population density (over population size) as part of the factors when comparing the numbers.

 

I'm wondering what's going on with India.  I considered Asian and Middle Eastern areas to be particularly in danger, so I wonder whether there's overall death rate spikes.

 

Well, with the talk of phases of openings. makes me think of diseases like cancer have Stage I-IV (IV worst if I remember).

 

I think maybe with the urban areas, maybe we should have been treating it as Stage IV and doing the precautions necessary.  Whereas a lot of rural areas were probably at Stage I-II,  and we over-radiated.  (yeah, I don't understand the nuances of cancer, being not in the medical field, so I hope I got my message across)

[Badger]

50 minutes ago, tkdguy said:

The racism has been bothering me quite a bit as well. The Asian community has often been blamed for the outbreak here, and many Asians have been harassed or assaulted. If it can happen in the San Francisco Bay Area, where the Asian community has long been a major part of the culture, I worry about what is happening in less diverse areas.

 

The one that bothers me the most about the Elon Musk issue is that the authorities seem to be content with letting him get away with flouting the law. Why? Because he's rich? If a small business did the same thing, I bet the authorities would quickly shut it down.

 

I know it might not be necessary all around, but, I will say, nearly everybody I know when Trump said "Chinese virus".  Thought  he was taking a shot at the Chinese govt, or was merely stating that it was the point of origin.  Not that Chinese people in general were responsible.  I can only speak from my own experience, though.

[Badger]

1 hour ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

Yep, the question is whether the resources in a rural community are exponentially or linearly lower.  But I wholly agree that it's very easy for a rural area to be flooded, or a hospital even bankrupted.

 

That's the real devil of the question, isn't it?

 

Yeah, my counties' neighboring county doesn't even have a hospital (at least as of a year ago, I've heard no word otherwise).  And going by when I had to take my mother to our own 18 months ago when she had her fall.  Ours, is basically one step (maybe) up from a MASH unit.

[TrickstaPriest]

3 minutes ago, Badger said:

Well, with the talk of phases of openings. makes me think of diseases like cancer have Stage I-IV (IV worst if I remember).

 

I think maybe with the urban areas, maybe we should have been treating it as Stage IV and doing the precautions necessary.  Whereas a lot of rural areas were probably at Stage I-II,  and we over-radiated.  (yeah, I don't understand the nuances of cancer, being not in the medical field, so I hope I got my message across)

 

I mean, in terms of describing treatment that's not bad.  I'm sure the reason for the reaction has to do with 'explosive growth' as mentioned before.  The real question is, as tkdguy has mentioned, how does one do a controlled re-opening of those areas?

 

Plagues are particularly effective against human nature because of how we process information, perceive problems, and how incredibly difficult it is to be diligent against transmission.  That's particularly why you can't just trust the area to handle it, you have to organize the effort in a sensible way.

[tkdguy]

7 minutes ago, Badger said:

 

I know it might not be necessary all around, but, I will say, nearly everybody I know when Trump said "Chinese virus".  Thought  he was taking a shot at the Chinese govt, or was merely stating that it was the point of origin.  Not that Chinese people in general were responsible.  I can only speak from my own experience, though.

 

Unfortunately, there have been actual cases of ordinary folk being assaulted right here in the SF Bay Area because of their race. Cyber bullying also appears to be on the rise.

[Badger]

yeah, it isnt exactly a field of expertise for me, so I can only speak in some generalities.  It just seems we hit rural areas with a harsher medication than needed, and my mind tries to figure out how/if it should have been handled some other way.  

 

I just know, economically,  the national quarantine can only be called once at most a generation, and we already fired the bullet.   

[TrickstaPriest]

2 minutes ago, Badger said:

I just know, economically,  the national quarantine can only be called once at most a generation, and we already fired the bullet.   

 

We don't have a government with any experience in this sort of thing, and in the modern world a virus like this (that spreads faster than the flu, which is already amazingly transmissible) could have had a huge impact on every city in the country.  But we don't "know" that, we can just move forwards on what we do know.

[Badger]

1 minute ago, tkdguy said:

 

Unfortunately, there have been actual cases of ordinary folk being assaulted right here in the SF Bay Area because of their race. Cyber bullying also appears to be on the rise.

 

Like I said only from my experience.  Though, we don't really have a sizeable Asian population in my area.  Mostly Vietnamese of the ones we do.  Most of the racism in my experience left in my area probably gets directed towards Mexico/Central America  (we were a big factory area until the early 1990s recession, so when jobs left, and some of them moved in and took some of the jobs that were left, you can see how that went for some).  (isn't to say we don't have the usual white-black racism, and others, just that over the last 20 years the others got put on the bottom shelf.)

[Ternaugh]

18 minutes ago, Badger said:

 

I know it might not be necessary all around, but, I will say, nearly everybody I know when Trump said "Chinese virus".  Thought  he was taking a shot at the Chinese govt, or was merely stating that it was the point of origin.  Not that Chinese people in general were responsible.  I can only speak from my own experience, though.

 

It was a dog-whistle to rally his base.

[Badger]

3 minutes ago, Ternaugh said:

 

It was a dog-whistle to rally his base.

 

Well, yeah, it was obviously to rally the base.

[Old Man]

Dr. Fauci on the accuracy of reported coronavirus death tolls