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2 hours ago, Matt the Bruins said:

I can't speak to the accuracy, but last night I read that without any response to the pandemic the death toll would be about 250,000 at present, so roughly 150,000 saved. Conversely, if we'd begun widespread shutdowns a week earlier the estimate was we'd have saved another 35,000.

 

I couldn't tell you exactly, but I did say earlier that if New York closed just a single week earlier, it would have saved 75% of the lives lost in the location that lost the most lives in the US, one of the hardest-hit countries in the world.  The estimate for 'likely dead so far' is more likely to be higher.  You have to remember that a pandemic expands in such a way that you are talking about near-orders of magnitude of difference.  I would think four hundred thousand to half a million dead so far is probably closer (front-loading a lot of the death but far from all), but 'no' response is unlikely.  Unless we mean 'self management', and that could have reduced tolls somewhat (at the cost of a lot of people essentially doing everything they can to avoid work anyway, without any federal support...).

 

The excess death data does suggest we could be closer to 140k deaths already.  Some of the 'excess deaths' could be suicide, but keep in mind driving-deaths are down, and accident-related deaths is x4 higher than suicides under normal circumstances...  Many more non-covid related excess deaths are very much deaths-by-health-problems left untreated because of Covid... but those are important to keep in mind because lack of treatment would continue even if we opened up the country and had major stresses on our health system.  ie- those deaths would still be happening in all situations but covid being contained from the beginning.

 

9 hours ago, GM Joe said:

Me, too. And it's remarkable to me that there have been terrible failures of leadership in both parties. De Blasio telling people to go out on the town one last time before lockdown. Cuomo cutting medicaid during a pandemic. Democrats in the House not using their leverage to make the Senate bill better. And on and on.

 

Maybe we're just not very good at picking leaders.

 

There's "in over your head" as well as "incompetency by design".  Most of our leaders are not incentivized to act in our benefit in these situations.  ex- see the stock selloffs.  They just need to contain the situation 'enough', and make sure they get their cut.  Yeah, I'm wholly cynical.

 

I'd also argue I've been trying to get 'my' leaders fired and replaced for years now...

 

In terms of Democrats in the House, that's the only field that they had any influence in.  The President and the Senate seem to have much more influence, though I couldn't tell you much about how our government functions.  A lot of the inaction was at the start - conversation about this in my own professional group started even before February IIRC, or within a day or two of it starting.  I already had started my own quarantine procedures quite early, and I still probably got sick.

 

Frankly, most of politics is making friends and CYA, that's why you especially can't let them CYA when they are failing at one of the most important events in decades.  Push them to expend the connections they have and resources they've prepared.  Your elected representatives can feel that pressure much stronger than your President.

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Behind the deliberate misinformation campaign about lockdown dangers

 

Quote

Republican political operatives are recruiting “extremely pro-Trump” doctors to go on television to prescribe reviving the U.S. economy as quickly as possible, without waiting to meet safety benchmarks proposed by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to slow the spread of the new coronavirus... a Washington public relations firm that frequently works for conservative groups distributed an open letter to Trump signed by more than 400 doctors calling the state coronavirus lockdowns a “mass casualty event” causing “millions of casualties” from alcoholism, homelessness, suicide and other causes.

 

 

There was a time when I might have been surprised at how easily weak minded people fall for this.  It's different when it literally endangers all of us though.

 

 

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Rumor is that Hell is busily remodeling the Malebolges to create a new level for politicians and physicians who betray their constituents, their oaths of office, and their oaths as healers for power.  They foresee a massive influx, I'm told.

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1 hour ago, Old Man said:

Behind the deliberate misinformation campaign about lockdown dangers

 

 

There was a time when I might have been surprised at how easily weak minded people fall for this.  It's different when it literally endangers all of us though.

 

To reference your quote - I don't think people understand what 'millions of casualties' looks like.

 

Trying to bury millions of casualties in a single country can probably be seen from space.

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Just now, TrickstaPriest said:

 

To reference your quote - I don't think people understand what 'millions of casualties' looks like.

 

Trying to bury millions of casualties in a single country can probably be seen from space.

 

Pretty sure the point is that millions of casualties from those other causes isn't going to happen.  The coronavirus has already killed more people in three months than either alcoholism or suicide killed in all of 2019.  But if Fox News tells viewers millions will die from them, then that's what Fox News viewers will believe.

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16 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

Pretty sure the point is that millions of casualties from those other causes isn't going to happen.  The coronavirus has already killed more people in three months than either alcoholism or suicide killed in all of 2019.  But if Fox News tells viewers millions will die from them, then that's what Fox News viewers will believe.

 

I'm more saying that I'm not sure that our society knows what having millions die within a month or two actually looks like...  Some people may talk big, 'less than a percent', but in general people in this country have no actual understanding of it (no matter who you are talking about).  Comparing/adding cancer and heart disease fatalities is the only way to get close.

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55 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

I'm more saying that I'm not sure that our society knows what having millions die within a month or two actually looks like...  Some people may talk big, 'less than a percent', but in general people in this country have no actual understanding of it (no matter who you are talking about).  Comparing/adding cancer and heart disease fatalities is the only way to get close.

 

I think they do in NYC, now.  And Italy, probably.  Perhaps not literally, but the hard-hit areas understand the scope.  But down here...the county has ~ 100K people, 360 cases, 2 deaths.  Bernalillo County (Albuquerque and environs) has about 700K population, 1300 cases, 63 deaths attributed.  Even there, chances that you know someone who died from it...not all that high.  And that's 1 person per 11,000.  So people see that and go, why are we still locked down so firmly?  Because they're seeing only what's right in front of them.

 

PARTICULARLY those who are tracking along with the whole "this is really not that bad!!" line.  It's "oh well, sure, where it's bad, restrict....but not here!!!"    Said this before, I'll say it again.  The war on truth is over, and Truth lost.  Because such a huge percentage of the population...maybe not the majority, but a very large chunk...can be dissuaded by "oh come on, of course that's not true!" from idiot mouthpieces who don't try to counter the facts, just deride and deny.  And, too often, it works.

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2 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

PARTICULARLY those who are tracking along with the whole "this is really not that bad!!" line.  It's "oh well, sure, where it's bad, restrict....but not here!!!"    Said this before, I'll say it again.  The war on truth is over, and Truth lost.  Because such a huge percentage of the population...maybe not the majority, but a very large chunk...can be dissuaded by "oh come on, of course that's not true!" from idiot mouthpieces who don't try to counter the facts, just deride and deny.  And, too often, it works.

 

I mean, propaganda works.

 

 

If people want to continue to compare deaths to natural causes - the Spanish Flu's US death toll was 0.7% of the total population in a year.

 

Heart disease is 0.2% and cancer 0.18% of the population every year.

 

So, something that hit us so hard it won't leave our memory, the Spanish Flu, was still 'only' twice as much as our two normal/natural leading killers in this country put together.

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That image at the top of the page broke my heart. No, really, I got one look at it and it filled me with a deep, intense sorrow and pang of grief even though a.) I don't know this guy from Adam, and b.) he pulled through and is in good spirits about it.

 

It just drove home to me how terrible a disease, and how terrifying an adversary, this is. And cured me of all desire to de-isolate early. I don't know if I could bear the thought of enduring that much -- or, even worse, causing one of more innocent people to have to endure that much.

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13 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

So, something that hit us so hard it won't leave our memory, the Spanish Flu, was still 'only' twice as much as our two normal/natural leading killers in this country put together.

 

Keep in mind that I'm arguing that a pandemic can cause a tremendous injury to a country even if it 'seems' like it 'isn't that bad'.  And as people have said, it -will- impact the economy when you have that many deaths... and most importantly, a pandemic uniquely magnifies itself.  It can be nothing or huge, with no in-between.  It's why testing is so important - it gives you more active information on mitigating those risks, without having to have a total strategy. 

 

But the two-week lag is also an obstacle to places (like Sweden) who are trying to take a middle road.  It's the hardest road to walk, doubly so for a pandemic.

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Results of a Large Scale Study as to the Effectiveness of Hydroxychloroquine as a COVID-19 Treatment

 







We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19. Each of these drug regimens was associated with decreased in-hospital survival and an increased frequency of ventricular arrhythmias when used for treatment of COVID-19.

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14 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

Yeah.  Even though I'm sure suicides are up (and traffic deaths are down), that does suggest that we could already be at a quarter of a million deaths from covid (or from hospital access shutdown due to not properly controlling covid).

 

It does depend on sampling from the counties, though... (it's not likely to be a linear relationship to population)

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58 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

Yeah.  Even though I'm sure suicides are up (and traffic deaths are down), that does suggest that we could already be at a quarter of a million deaths from covid (or from hospital access shutdown due to not properly controlling covid).

 

It does depend on sampling from the counties, though... (it's not likely to be a linear relationship to population)

 

There are other factors;  not all those deaths are from CV infections.  You might want to say that, well, restricted care due to the lockdown/so many resources committed to CV, is leading to more deaths.  Probably true, but how many?  Recognize that, yeah, ok, the dental cleaning I was gonna have last month got put off, and i basically skipped a month with my chiropractor.  But known, serious conditions like a prior heart attack?   Where a 'routine' exam isn't allllll that routine, what percentage of these have been postponed?  

 

So, overall...yeah, I think the "hole" in the death rate that we can't account for, is the single most important indication that things are much more serious than the reported numbers show.

Not sure what you mean by "sampling from the counties" because they were reporting deaths per 100,000 people.  They can't take an average of the rates;  that doesn't work, but I presume they're more competent than that.  That should be first-year stats.  Plus, they were limiting to at least 10 CV-related deaths because that's where the CDC is reporting excess deaths data.  That helps damp the noise down.

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We are testing dead bodies for Covid-19 through the Coroner's office, and even funeral homes. There isn't under reporting happening there in CA.

 

Edit: realized I was maybe being pretty identifiable on here. Crazy people out there these days

 

Suicide, alcohol related illness, and the like are chronic. You will see those carry over a long time. 

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