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33 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

There are other factors;  not all those deaths are from CV infections.  You might want to say that, well, restricted care due to the lockdown/so many resources committed to CV, is leading to more deaths.  Probably true, but how many?  Recognize that, yeah, ok, the dental cleaning I was gonna have last month got put off, and i basically skipped a month with my chiropractor.  But known, serious conditions like a prior heart attack?   Where a 'routine' exam isn't allllll that routine, what percentage of these have been postponed?  

 

Yes, that's what I meant.  I don't treat them as 'covid' deaths, but 'because covid wasn't controlled' deaths.  That matters for certain contexts, but not for 'lethality' rates of covid.  If that makes any sense.

 

34 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

So, overall...yeah, I think the "hole" in the death rate that we can't account for, is the single most important indication that things are much more serious than the reported numbers show.

Yeah, that's what I meant.  I don't know how much of that 'unaccounted' rate is directly covid.  That's where it's hard to say.

 

35 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

Not sure what you mean by "sampling from the counties" because they were reporting deaths per 100,000 people.  They can't take an average of the rates;  that doesn't work, but I presume they're more competent than that.  That should be first-year stats.  Plus, they were limiting to at least 10 CV-related deaths because that's where the CDC is reporting excess deaths data.  That helps damp the noise down.

 

I agree in terms of 'reporting deaths per 100k people', but even the rate doesn't always map linearly to other counties.  It's still interesting, and yes it does look like they didn't use any states like that, which can greatly create noise.

 

I try and be a little cautious when I first get data, but it's reports like this one that had me say "the overreporting is likely nowhere near close to the underreporting".

 

23 minutes ago, Iuz the Evil said:

We are testing dead bodies for Covid-19 through the Coroner's office, and even funeral homes. There isn't under reporting happening there in CA.

 

That's very good, as grim as it is.  At this point I'm still eyeballing the local area reopening and deciding if/when I want to get a haircut.  Heh.

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Clackamas County, just south of Portland, is scheduled to reopen tomorrow. Portlanders sometimes refer to it as "Clackistan" because of the conservative and unruly politics that seem to be popular there. (We just had our primary elections in Oregon. We won't know for sure how the county will decide until the general election in November.) Portlanders and residents of Eugene are much more liberal than the rest of the state, but the Portland metro area is so populous that it's tended to dominate state politics in the last two decades, mch to the frustration of the eastern, rural part of the state.

 

But I digress.

 

It may be a good sign that they have a favorable metric. That said, I don't think I want to go there to get a haircut just yet. No offense to anyone who makes their living cutting hair (it's not your fault there's a pandemic on) but I might not want to see a barber for a while if I can figure out how to do a self-inflicted buzz cut. My first two attempts were not too good.

 

While there are many things I would love to, and probably will, do again, anything requiring close, personal contact will take some convincing. What I'm looking forward to is getting back to church, not because I've been a good boy (I haven't) but because there are a lot of people there I miss seeing.

 

 

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I feel you guys about the haircut.  I'm two haircuts behind and this is the longest my hair has been for thirty years.  I'm making do with hats and, if necessary, gel.  But I've had long hair before and I'll do it again before I go to a salon with no vaccine or treatment available.

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I've cut my own hair for years, ever since my favorite stylist retired. I couldn't find someone else to do it the way I like (strategic length placement to cover balding and receding areas) ;) , so I bought a home hair-cutting kit. I'm still not near professional level, but I think it comes out acceptably. But now I look positively GQ compared to you hippies. :P

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I don't get my hair cut that often in a year anyways.  I lucked out that I got my birthday spa treatment before the COVID really hit the fan, so I can wait for next month and hope it's safe to make an appointment for a trim.

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On 5/21/2020 at 7:56 PM, unclevlad said:

Rumor is that Hell is busily remodeling the Malebolges to create a new level for politicians and physicians who betray their constituents, their oaths of office, and their oaths as healers for power.  They foresee a massive influx, I'm told.

 

Treason against one's country reportedly lands one in the second round of Cocytus instead. I'd think that applies to leaders who deliberately push for reactions to a deadly plague that will result in much more death and suffering so they can gain material wealth or political power.

 

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Just read a bit of drivel on the Book of Face, somebody from my old high school posting a treatise from Ted Nugent on why we shouldn't have to wear masks or endure social distancing anymore.

 

I was tempted to respond with something like, "Oh, I forget, which medical school did Ted Nugent graduate from?". But I knew it would be completely wasted on that audience, so I didn't bother.

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18 minutes ago, Pariah said:

Just read a bit of drivel on the Book of Face, somebody from my old high school posting a treatise from Ted Nugent on why we shouldn't have to wear masks or endure social distancing anymore.

 

I was tempted to respond with something like, "Oh, I forget, which medical school did Ted Nugent graduate from?". But I knew it would be completely wasted on that audience, so I didn't bother.

 

Sure, but the same argument can be made with regard to other celebs...whether you agree with them or not.

Forget the writer, but there's a really good line:  "We tend to assess the intelligence of a person by how much they agree with us."  Unfortunately far too true.

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39 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

"We tend to assess the intelligence of a person by how much they agree with us."  Unfortunately far too true.

 

You're not wrong. 

 

Having said that, Uncle Ted is a nutcase, IMHO. To quote the MCU, his mind is a bag full of cats. You can smell crazy on him. He came to tour my workplace once, and he was polite and well-spoken, but clearly not digging in the same ditch with the rest of us.

 

To some audiences, I suppose that's a feature rather than a bug.

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I walked down to the local hot dog eatery today, decent foot traffic in the place. Hot dog with kraut & mustard, and a Racer 5. Everything was very weird, plastic barriers and a laminated hot dog placard that said "clean me" to leave on my table after. Masks and gloves all around, and you can only take off your mask when eating. Everyone standing on floor markings, and they'd pulled half the tables out so social distancing was in full effect. Hand sanitizer required before completing your order. The workers were just happy to be at work again.

 

Was a good hot dog. It reminded me of better times than this.

 

I want this to be finished, I miss fear not being a constant element in every human interaction I see around me. This may be the most depressing thing I've ever witnessed, and I want to be able to hug my friends again. And go to parties, and hang out with folks listening to good music. To be able to travel, and not have to constantly track where my mask is before I go out. To be able to see my mom without worrying about her maybe getting sick accidentally. And none of that is going to happen any time soon. This disease is taking so much from us, and this is time we will never get back. The world is on pause, full of terror and danger, and it's appalling, for going on months now... with probably more than a year to go.

 

God, this is awful. Tastes like despair.

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6 hours ago, Iuz the Evil said:

I walked down to the local hot dog eatery today, decent foot traffic in the place. Hot dog with kraut & mustard, and a Racer 5.

 

I approve of your taste in malt beverages...

 

Hang in there.  I have those days too.

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12 hours ago, Iuz the Evil said:

I want this to be finished, I miss fear not being a constant element in every human interaction I see around me. This may be the most depressing thing I've ever witnessed, and I want to be able to hug my friends again. And go to parties, and hang out with folks listening to good music. To be able to travel, and not have to constantly track where my mask is before I go out. To be able to see my mom without worrying about her maybe getting sick accidentally. And none of that is going to happen any time soon. This disease is taking so much from us, and this is time we will never get back. The world is on pause, full of terror and danger, and it's appalling, for going on months now... with probably more than a year to go.

 

God, this is awful. Tastes like despair.

 

I'm right there with you, man.  I've been watching helplessly as thousands of my countrymen die for two months.  But I fight off the despair with a searing rage against the people who I hold responsible. 

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4 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

I'm right there with you, man.  I've been watching helplessly as thousands of my countrymen die for two months.  But I fight off the despair with a searing rage against the people who I hold responsible. 

That isn't helping me anymore. 

 

I started to write how I felt but it was so despondent. Here is a message of hope instead. 

 

 

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