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I tested positive.

Fever broke last night. I'm going to be okay.

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1 hour ago, Cancer said:

I don't believe there is a legal requirement that governors of Texas be rich idiots (emphasis on the idiot), but in fact it almost invariably works out that way.

 

But probably not as much as the rich does.

 

Not just Texas, either.  Po' folk can pretty much forget running in a Senatorial or governor's race in the big states, I think.  Perhaps almost anywhere, because Congress is just as much a national battleground, so what might be seen as a smaller state still counts for that majority in the Senate that is sooooo huge.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Cancer said:

I don't believe there is a legal requirement that governors of Texas be rich idiots (emphasis on the idiot), but in fact it almost invariably works out that way.

 

A quote about the old House of Lords was:

 

"Individual peers are born independent, independently take their seats in the Lords and independently vote Conservative".

 

🙂

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12 hours ago, megaplayboy said:

Back in early April, my guess for death toll by election day was 120,000.  We'll hit that tomorrow, and it's mid-June.  

 

My new guess is 250,000.  When will that turn out to be low?  

 

4-5 weeks after the colleges try to re-open. so, late Sept/early Oct.

 

Altho maybe not.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

Note that one thing they include is a significant decline in social distancing as the summer moves forward, and a notable, sharp decline in mid-August...which, I suspect, is the colleges (and possibly schools generally) trying to re-open.  So they're considering some of that.  And they've got 200K deaths on Oct 1.  Then again......the confidence intervals always say "if we're notably wrong, it'll be because we were too LOW."  

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14 hours ago, megaplayboy said:

Back in early April, my guess for death toll by election day was 120,000.  We'll hit that tomorrow, and it's mid-June.  

 

My new guess is 250,000.  When will that turn out to be low?  

Well some were predicting 2 million weren't they.

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19 hours ago, Cancer said:

And Arizona's cases-per-day trend curve is concave up.  So is Oregon's, but the curvature is less obvious.

And Portland/Multnomah County is scheduled for Phase 1 reopening tomorrow. I would not want to work in a Portland emergency room for the next couple of months.

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27 minutes ago, BoloOfEarth said:

I could be mis-remembering, but I'm not sure "predicting" is the right word.  IIRC they were warning that 2 million dead could be possible if no actions were taken. 

 

People are going to naturally take some action.  But also "some" is another word.

 

"Some" people say a lot of things about... climate change.  For example, a common complaint I hear is 'some people were saying it was all global freezing, now its not.  what gives?'.  Those "some people's" opinions are rarely more than a brief observation of maybe and not worth much more than that.

 

So the starting point should be "who was 'predicting' 2 million deaths and why".

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9 minutes ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

And Portland/Multnomah County is scheduled for Phase 1 reopening tomorrow. I would not want to work in a Portland emergency room for the next couple of months.

 

I feel like us "Human Capital Stock" are definitely being pushed to 'reopen as quickly as we can, with no regard to safety' because we are inherently expendable.

 

I swear.  How much effort is being made into convincing people not to wear masks?

 

Like, it's getting surreal.  I wouldn't have believed in 'media/

government sponsored population control' until this started becoming a major political divide.  Why are so many media personalities willing to 'die on this hill' when it's obvious the science will wholly disprove their opinion??

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6 minutes ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

"Getting" surreal?

 

It's not like the 'reopen' movement, where there are people understandably desperate for income (I feel that's a failing of the government distributing assistance but I digress).

 

This is lying on the level that the only thing it impacts is the direct survival of your own people, your own voting block even.  You are literally lying to your own voters by politicizing masks, which will noticeably get them or people they love killed.  It has no other effect as far as I can see.

 

My best guess is information distribution - a lot of much more conservative people I know don't seem to 'see' the push for no masks from their own leadership and media people.  They are only tangentially/barely aware it even exists, and write it off.  They are only getting the videos that relate to their personal interests, and the algorithms don't "push" the actual content of their own people saying "don't wear a mask" that would incense them against those people.

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ie- they are so confident in this divide of information distribution that they aren't afraid of their own votership being angered by those calls now - they won't see them enough to -get- angry at them.

 

Which leaves the voting block that wholly believes in it, even at the cost of 'other' people.  The percentage of people who die still will not dominate their direct relationships - it'll be 'friends' and 'others' that they can emotionally distance themselves from who will have the losses (by odds).  And in return the politics get to push a very fervent voting base that will feel even more of the country is unfairly against them.

 

It's like the accident-lottery, as long as it doesn't actually happen to you or someone you love, it doesn't matter as much if a policy gets pushed that directly increases accidents.  That policy's direct impact to your voting block is minimal on a per-person basis.  So the actual impact to the overall population will 'feel' low.  You (the policy pusher) will take some losses, to a benefit.  The 'benefit' in this case is increased polarization and vote-locking (ie- people who'll never vote for the other party, and will always vote), at the cost of a smaller amount of direct lives (ie- a small amount of locked votes).  And the 'uncertainties' (people who want to vote, but don't feel upset enough to turn against their party) will keep a good ratio of votes in on those losses, even if they lose someone.

 

Think of it as losing 1% of your voting base (and hurting 2% of the remaining base, losing a further 0.5% of overall votes), for a total of 1.5% certain losses.  But of your remaining 98% or so of your remaining voting base, you are increasing their willingness to vote by 5%.

 

(edits for clairifications x2)

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The evidence so far is clear: when states and cities "repoen", even with safeguards, cases and deaths increase. And fudging the data by not doing needed tests is despicable.

 

I would say "It's the Science!", but "trust" in science is part of the problem. Nature does not care if you're Red or Blue. If you won't take proper precautions, you will be at an increased risk. Period.

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Only when they reopen prematurely.  IL has actually done a pretty good job of managing the safeguards and phased re-opening....and has been trending downwards even after going to Phase 3 of the reopening plan.  If all continues as it has, we're looking to move to Phase 4 in about 3 weeks.  Should things start to take a turn for the worse, the plan has always been to move back to previous phases based on the numbers that are coming in.

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1 hour ago, TrickstaPriest said:

So the starting point should be "who was 'predicting' 2 million deaths and why".

 

Except it was never a "prediction" really, more like "had nothing been done to contain the spread, the estimate is..."  which is entirely different.  Expert opinion on that, hasn't changed much.  The measures that have been taken have saved an unknown but huge number of lives.

 

And we're seeing the evidence, in those places where reopening is going too quickly and with too few mitigation efforts in place.  No, NOT all of them...but tooooo many to ignore.  The pattern:  execute reopen and mitigation well, case load increase is manageable;  do it badly, case load risks getting out of control.  This is no longer arguable on the facts, IMO...doesn't mean some factions and/or individuals don't deny it...just that their position is not rooted in reality.

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I noticed this statement on the website of the Grotto, a beautiful Catholic shrine here in Portland. They have an "upper garden" (on a high bluff you need an elevator to reach -- which is a pretty good way of enforcing an attendance quota when you think about it) that includes a Meditation Room. I'm not Catholic but I have gone there to pray on many occasions when I have been especially troubled. Anyway, they were saying "We will bring the large, comfortable chairs back as soon as it is safe to do so."

 

For now, meditators will have to stand, or sit on a hard bench, wearing their masks and maintaining social distancing.

 

Which reminds me that I need to find a chapel to visit soon. My stake is waiting for word from Salt Lake on when to open up, and will then have to figure out a way to meet guidelines. It's not going to be easy to organize. Unlike the megachurches, at the local level at least we are encouraged to follow the health directives. But I could benefit from some alone time in any chapel -- denomination of the facility doesn't mater to me at this stage.

 

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1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

Except it was never a "prediction" really, more like "had nothing been done to contain the spread, the estimate is..."  which is entirely different.  Expert opinion on that, hasn't changed much.  The measures that have been taken have saved an unknown but huge number of lives.

 

Yeah.  I'm pushing that other people 'questioning the predictions' should ask who's predicting what.  Nice words like prediction sound official.  Like global cooling. 

 

I can't think of more than a handful of scientists that even theorized 'global cooling' is a thing, yet it's the 'going-to' excuse for anyone I talk to about 'why the fsedk hav you been letting your congressmen openly lie about this for literally three plus decades???' 
 

'predicted two million deaths' is the excuse I'm putting on blast.

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11 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

'predicted two million deaths' is the excuse I'm putting on blast.

 

Yep.  I don't think Badger was doing this intentionally, as he's not alone here, but...calling it a "prediction" isn't simply inaccurate, it strikes me as (potentially intentional) misinformation, to create disbelief and denial in the readers' minds.  

A similar word choice elsewhere...someone titled a thread "PC Has Gone Too Far."  The OP's entire post was "Elmer Fudd is banned from having a gun."  There was no BAN.  Warner chose to remove the gun...their own action.  Not as a result of outside pressure.  Which changes the entire tone of the discussion.  "Ban" is intended to raise hackles, and it's totally wrong.

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Just now, unclevlad said:

Yep.  I don't think Badger was doing this intentionally, as he's not alone here, but...calling it a "prediction" isn't simply inaccurate, it strikes me as (potentially intentional) misinformation, to create disbelief and denial in the readers' minds.  

 

Yep, and I'm sorry Badger for putting you on blast for it.

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