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45 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

What's so terrifying to me, is the outrage from the Republican state legislators.  It's pretty much the same song and (anarchic) dance...any mandate restricts freedom, and by god we're not gonna put up with it!!!  Oh, they're perfectly happy to dictate to YOU....

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17 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

The drug company is being singled out because it is a monopoly that is blatantly rubbing our noses in the fact that it can charge whatever it feels like for a drug that was at least partially funded by taxpayer dollars.  Even though in this case the final cost is not as high as it could have been, it's just another example of for-profit healthcare driving healthcare costs totally out of control. 

 

The most ridiculous part of the whole thing is Gilead justifying their cost by comparing it to supposed healthcare cost savings.  That's like charging $100,000 for an oil change because it saves you from buying a new Mercedes.  Who do they think they're fooling?  Especially when the entire healthcare cost structure they're comparing it to is extortionist in the first place.

 

If the entire healthcare cost structure is exorbitant, why is it only the researcher who develops the drug called upon to lower its prices?  If everyone is overcharging, they should all be held to account.  Not having seen the books, I'm not qualified to comment on who, if anyone, is overcharging.  How many blind alleys have to be paid for (with zero sales) in order to develop a successful product?

 

Their first quarter results indicate $50 million in clinical trials and ramping up to manufacture the drug.  And I don't recall Gilead justifying the price compared to reduced costs elsewhere (feel free to cite - I did not look that hard).  I recall ScottishFox pointing it out.  If a product reduced my vehicle operating costs by $1,000 a year, I would be pretty happy to invest $200 a year in that product.  I get 80% of the benefit.

 

To the question of government funding, governments could certainly incorporate conditions on government grants - private sector money would expect a return.  Governments could also choose to invest in publicly-owned research ventures rather than issuing grants and partnering with private sector researchers at all.

 

On 7/1/2020 at 9:23 AM, Pattern Ghost said:

Gilead has already announced that they're letting it be produced royalty-free by generic manufacturers.  They've already taken steps to reduce the cost of the drug. This has been in the news for several weeks.

 

Where is their monopoly if the generic manufacturers can produce the same thing with no royalty payments?  That's a pretty significant giveaway by Gilead - the generic producers get to sell the product without contributing a dime to cover its development and testing costs.  But it's easier to point at The Evil Corporation* than to evaluate the facts objectively.

 

* because we know all corporations are evil, right? 

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55 minutes ago, Hugh Neilson said:

 because we know all corporations are evil, right? 

If Hollywood has taught us one thing it is that all corporations are evil.

I mean Look at Total Recall (the Arnold version) and the Steven Seagal documentary On Deadly Ground for example. Corporations = Evil

'Nuff said.

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5 hours ago, Hugh Neilson said:

 

If the entire healthcare cost structure is exorbitant, why is it only the researcher who develops the drug called upon to lower its prices? 

 

It isn't.

 

5 hours ago, Hugh Neilson said:

If everyone is overcharging, they should all be held to account. 

 

You are correct.

 

 

5 hours ago, Hugh Neilson said:

Not having seen the books, I'm not qualified to comment on who, if anyone, is overcharging. 

 

Yes, you are.

 

 

5 hours ago, Hugh Neilson said:

How many blind alleys have to be paid for (with zero sales) in order to develop a successful product?

 

Irrelevant.

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Well, in the possibly good news bucket I was skimming data on covidtracking.com and noticed something.

 

The cases are going way up - which has been highly publicized.

 

The number of daily fatalities continues to drop.  This isn't getting any media attention that I've noticed and I watch way too much media.

 

Given the case load starts to really accelerate after June 10th we should have seen a pretty big bump up in fatalities by now.  We'll see how it goes, but maybe this is testing becoming more broadly available and not indicative of a massive surge in fatalities coming up.

 

CoronaCasesVs.Deaths.jpg.d5fb843d8689e10046d78653b8645d2c.jpg

 

In the second chart we do see a bump in hospitalizations and fatalities around July 1st, but this makes me hopeful the worst is over.

 

CoronaCasesVs.Deaths2.thumb.jpg.0073419ef47cd13916e1b63cf4645b04.jpg

 

 

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11 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

Well, in the possibly good news bucket I was skimming data on covidtracking.com and noticed something.

 

The cases are going way up - which has been highly publicized.

 

The number of daily fatalities continues to drop.  This isn't getting any media attention that I've noticed and I watch way too much media.

 

Given the case load starts to really accelerate after June 10th we should have seen a pretty big bump up in fatalities by now.  We'll see how it goes, but maybe this is testing becoming more broadly available and not indicative of a massive surge in fatalities coming up.

 

CoronaCasesVs.Deaths.jpg.d5fb843d8689e10046d78653b8645d2c.jpg

 

In the second chart we do see a bump in hospitalizations and fatalities around July 1st, but this makes me hopeful the worst is over.

 

CoronaCasesVs.Deaths2.thumb.jpg.0073419ef47cd13916e1b63cf4645b04.jpg

 

 

ICU hospitalizations reportedly lag positive test results by up to 3 weeks, so the uptick seems correlative here.  I'd expect to see an uptick in deaths no later than mid-July, this being the previous pattern.  If you are correct, any uptick might be subdued or reduced.  

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27 minutes ago, megaplayboy said:

ICU hospitalizations reportedly lag positive test results by up to 3 weeks, so the uptick seems correlative here.  I'd expect to see an uptick in deaths no later than mid-July, this being the previous pattern.  If you are correct, any uptick might be subdued or reduced.  

 

14-15 days from diagnosis to death (on average), then another week or so for testing and paperwork.  Gonna be an interesting next two weeks.

 

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I am reasonably optimistic about deaths.  Even if we have not gotten better at avoiding the virus, we have gotten a lot better at diagnosing, triaging and treating those suffering from it .

 

Doctors have learned that it is not all about intubation and oxygen.  All the other factors are being discovered and managed as well.

 

We are bringing the heavy weight of scientific analysis and treatment to bear, that is what makes our civilisation so great.  Don't see the crystals and homeopathic potions making huge inroads on treatment plans.

 

Doc

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Another aspect suggested is that we're finding cases earlier.  That said, tho, we do know the lag is there.  So...go back to June 15th or so.  Roughly 25,000 new cases a day in and around there.  That gives an approximate mortality rate of around 2.5% or so...which means there's every reason to expect the daily deaths to climb back over 1000 by then end of next week or thereabouts.

 

And, to be honest?  Even if the death rates do go down somewhat, the infection rates alone are so insanely high that I don't see any real basis for optimism.

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Even if the death rate for Covid19 is relatively low, with the dramatic spike in positive cases and the number of unoccupied hospital beds dropping fast, the number of deaths from all causes is probably going to spike due to stress on the healthcare system. Just looking at the documented Covid19 deaths is a mistake.

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