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22 hours ago, unclevlad said:

So...1 mill to 2 mill took 44 days, if I count right.  2 to 3, 29.  3 to 4...we passed 4M today...15.

 

 

 So doubling from 1 mill to 2 mill took 44 days, and doubling from 2 mill to 4 mill took 29 + 15 = 44 days.

 

The rate of spread is unchanged - and cases will continue to double unless that rate is reduced.

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I wonder what has more impact.

 

Saying we're adding another million cases faster...or saying the doubling rate is not slowing down?  

 

Probably not so much here, but I suspect a lot of folks wouldn't recognize the implications that the *doubling* rate is remaining fixed.  
 

Little thought experiment for those folks.  

I will pay you $1M.  In return, you pay me back 1 cent today, 2 cents tomorrow, 4 cents on day 3, 8 on day 4, etc.  For one month...call it 30 days.  Deal or no deal?

 

(The classic analogy is MUCH nastier.  It's 1 grain of wheat on one square of a chessboard....2 on the next, 4 on the next, etc.  For all 64 squares.  Short answer?  That's about 3x the *entire worldwide production* of wheat in 2017...it's about 2.5 TRILLION tons.)

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The U.S. death toll will reach fifty 9/11s over the weekend. Just picture 100 airliners crashing into 100 WTC towers which then collapse. On second thought, don’t. 

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Update: my wife tested negative for COVID. The doctor doesn't have confidence in that result so he's going to do at least two more tests over the next few days. She still can't breathe well so they're not sending her home but they moved her out of the COVID section of the hospital. They can now give her nebulizer treatments (inhaled medicines), they don't give those treatments in the COVID area because it tends to make the virus airborne.

 

They also think they've detected a heart murmur so they're checking that out. Her cardiologist and her other fairly recent stays in the hospital over the last couple of years haven't detected anything like that but, who knows?

 

She's a lot less stressed after testing negative for COVID. Now it's just like any other stay in the hospital because she can't breathe except that family can't stay with her..

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52 minutes ago, archer said:

Update: my wife tested negative for COVID. The doctor doesn't have confidence in that result so he's going to do at least two more tests over the next few days. She still can't breathe well so they're not sending her home but they moved her out of the COVID section of the hospital. They can now give her nebulizer treatments (inhaled medicines), they don't give those treatments in the COVID area because it tends to make the virus airborne.

 

They also think they've detected a heart murmur so they're checking that out. Her cardiologist and her other fairly recent stays in the hospital over the last couple of years haven't detected anything like that but, who knows?

 

She's a lot less stressed after testing negative for COVID. Now it's just like any other stay in the hospital because she can't breathe except that family can't stay with her..

That is still difficult. I wish her all the best.

 

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19 hours ago, unclevlad said:

I wonder what has more impact.

 

Saying we're adding another million cases faster...or saying the doubling rate is not slowing down?  

 

Probably not so much here, but I suspect a lot of folks wouldn't recognize the implications that the *doubling* rate is remaining fixed. 

 

I think the fact that the doubling rate is unchanged allows you to extrapolate.  Doubling again in 44 days means another million in 15 days, 11 days, 10 days, 8 days - we're getting to 1 million a week pretty soon.  And that's if we don't accelerate the spread with big reopenings, reduced mask use, big gatherings.

 

Doubling every 44 days is scary fast.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Badger said:

If I was the janitor, I might have to beat her with the mop.

 

Having endured similar incidents multiple times in my retail career, there are procedures.

 

If as in this case the act is malicious, you call the cops.

 

If illness or incontinence, you help the customer as you can while maintaining personal safety. Get them out of the store as quickly and quietly as possible

 

Then you close the store or that section of it, clean the area and call for an emergency carpet cleaning(usually that night  if contracted out). 

 

Fortunately for me, the worst of these incidents happened on my day off. Fortunately for my staff it was only 3 hrs from closing out of a 10 hour day, so they got to do the last 2 hrs of their shift aiding the carpet cleaners and watching Dish Network. while the store was closed.

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2 hours ago, Hugh Neilson said:

 

I think the fact that the doubling rate is unchanged allows you to extrapolate.  Doubling again in 44 days means another million in 15 days, 11 days, 10 days, 8 days - we're getting to 1 million a week pretty soon.  And that's if we don't accelerate the spread with big reopenings, reduced mask use, big gatherings.

 

Doubling every 44 days is scary fast.

 

 

 

 

Oh, to be sure.  Most of us can do that.
How many people out there have math aversion and *won't* understand this?  Whereas if we say "a million cases in 14 days"...that they might get more easily, even if they might not connect that much with it.

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1 hour ago, Grailknight said:

 

Having endured similar incidents multiple times in my retail career, there are procedures.

 

If as in this case the act is malicious, you call the cops.

 

If illness or incontinence, you help the customer as you can while maintaining personal safety. Get them out of the store as quickly and quietly as possible

 

Then you close the store or that section of it, clean the area and call for an emergency carpet cleaning(usually that night  if contracted out). 

 

Fortunately for me, the worst of these incidents happened on my day off. Fortunately for my staff it was only 3 hrs from closing out of a 10 hour day, so they got to do the last 2 hrs of their shift aiding the carpet cleaners and watching Dish Network. while the store was closed.

 

If it was unintentional, wouldn't you also call for EMTs?  Prima facie, I think such a call is warranted, even if it proves to be really nothing.  

And yeah...this is hazardous biomaterial.  So the cleaning to be done is much more extensive.

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31 minutes ago, Badger said:

Yeah, if accident it is understandable. I got the impression that case not so much.

 

The article says she pulled down her pants, so I can't see how it's accidental.

 

I'm befuddled that she had stolen things from another store, and then caused such a ruckus that the authorities are called, increasing her chances of getting caught as a thief.  Then again, everything else points to her not being the brightest bulb in the lamp, so I shouldn't be surprised.

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44 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

 

If it was unintentional, wouldn't you also call for EMTs?  Prima facie, I think such a call is warranted, even if it proves to be really nothing.  

And yeah...this is hazardous biomaterial.  So the cleaning to be done is much more extensive.

 

EMT's weren't necessary for my incidents though they were called by a companion . The worst was handled by the professional caretaker  with the incontinent older gentleman and the professional cleaners came right away.  I did have to pull up and replace several carpet squares one one occasion and that was ....  unpleasant.

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Just now, Grailknight said:

 

EMT's weren't necessary for my incidents though they were called by a companion . The worst was handled by the professional caretaker  with the incontinent older gentleman and the professional cleaners came right away.  I did have to pull up and replace several carpet squares one one occasion and that was ....  unpleasant.

 

Ahhh...yes, if there's a professional caretaker, then he/she will know whether this is a real problem or just......  

 

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40 minutes ago, BoloOfEarth said:

 

The article says she pulled down her pants, so I can't see how it's accidental.

 

I'm befuddled that she had stolen things from another store, and then caused such a ruckus that the authorities are called, increasing her chances of getting caught as a thief.  Then again, everything else points to her not being the brightest bulb in the lamp, so I shouldn't be surprised.

 

My take isn't stupid, it's suffering from mental health issues.

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21 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

Oh, to be sure.  Most of us can do that.
How many people out there have math aversion and *won't* understand this?  Whereas if we say "a million cases in 14 days"...that they might get more easily, even if they might not connect that much with it.

 

Absolutely - how tough is it for us to say "assuming no change in the rate, the next million will only take X days, and in a couple of months we will be looking at less than a week for a million new cases". 

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Texas has been getting hammered these last few weeks.

 

Dotted line is the national average.  Even here in suburbia the death rate has climbed.

 

It's good to see the hospitalization rate flatten out.  Hopefully the death rate won't lag too far behind.

 

School starts in 26 days.  😐

 

 

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school starting with in person class ...  that is going to as... well...  bet a lot of school districts  will go back to online by the 5th time a school gets closed by a report of corona in one buildings

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The schools issue is IMO the most difficult one of all, with some of the more intractable options.  Contact trace a 10 year old?  Maybe reorganize into narrow groups that hang together?  Manage meals so there's little intermingling?  The kids will want to cross the lines, tho.  But without that...the contacts explode, if kids have varying, flexible schedules with different groups.

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1 hour ago, Tom Cowan said:

school starting with in person class ...  that is going to as... well...  bet a lot of school districts  will go back to online by the 5th time a school gets closed by a report of corona in one buildings

hmm

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/the-cdc-changed-its-advice-about-kids-and-coronavirus-right-before-recommending-schools-reopen-181605702.html

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