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1 hour ago, death tribble said:

The UK is now out of the top 10 for the virus. So something to be cheerful for.

 

UK is getting its act together.  The numbers were terrible in April and May, but a heckuva lot better in June and July.  I'm seeing 700 or so new cases a day, on average?  That's roughly 1 per 100,000 people.  Deaths are similarly way down...but the death rates among the identified cases is staying very high.  There's a lag between cases and deaths, of course, that's tricky, but the 7-day average for new cases on July 1st was 857, and the average for new deaths on the 21st was 65.  So still looking at maybe 8% or so.

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Ugh...just a couple days but deaths are notably up.

 

Beginning to wonder if we are, in fact, seeing a 4th of July surge.  Cases were up from the 10th to the 15th...incubation times?  And close to 3 weeks later for the deaths?   Not proven by any stretch of the imagination, but also not crazy...

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26 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

Ugh...just a couple days but deaths are notably up.

 

Beginning to wonder if we are, in fact, seeing a 4th of July surge.  Cases were up from the 10th to the 15th...incubation times?  And close to 3 weeks later for the deaths?   Not proven by any stretch of the imagination, but also not crazy...

I'd like to hear from the actual experts (who must be getting increasingly uncomfortable working with the political types) and see what they can pin down. Provable cause-and-effect sounds very difficult right now, but there should be enough data out there to at l;east make more educated estimates (because that's al we can really get -- estimates).

 

Unfortunately the data is being fed to the White House rather than the CDC, so who knows what level of accuracy we will be seeing in the August and September figures.

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8 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Ugh...just a couple days but deaths are notably up.

 

Beginning to wonder if we are, in fact, seeing a 4th of July surge.  Cases were up from the 10th to the 15th...incubation times?  And close to 3 weeks later for the deaths?   Not proven by any stretch of the imagination, but also not crazy...

 

Incubation times can be a couple of weeks. Some people don't need hospitalization until a couple of weeks after first showing symptoms. Many people linger in the hospital for 3-4 weeks before dying.

 

 

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MLB's experience is showing that any plans for sports have to be written in pencil.  Lightly.  Already, their planned schedule has seen fairly extensive disruption.  Cards-Brewers postponed today after 2 Cards players test positive.

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On 7/29/2020 at 9:49 AM, Starlord said:

My wife is a teacher.  Trust me when I say that a lot of teachers, many of whom fall into an at-risk category, are not hating online learning.  Next to an actual infectious disease lab or a hospital, I can't think of a worse place to be than schools or daycare centers.

 

As a college instructor, I can say that collectively we faculty didn't actively rebel when the university administration asked if we would consider in-person teaching this fall, but when they allowed the departments to state how they wanted their courses scheduled, only Chemistry requested anything but on-line only.  And the chemists only want on-site in-person instruction for a handful of advanced lab courses.  And with a properly protected, protocol-observing disease lab, I think you're safer there than in a primary or secondary school.

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That was mentioned before, I was trying to draw a distinction between germ factories that get massive amounts of PPE (hospitals, labs) and places that don't, like schools and daycare centers.

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"Treat it like a combat deployment."

 

That was a point from the video above, with regard to teachers *generally*.  Maybe that's a little extreme, but not that much IMO.  And it's terrifying in its feeling, if you accept it has any level of validity.

 

It is horrific for the kids...but this was inevitable.  We won't learn, as a society, without obscene levels of tragedy......and I'm afraid we need more than one.  It is beyond my comprehension how infantile too many of us are.  This camp didn't obey rules.  The staff...lotta kids themselves...and attendees are going to pay the price now;  it seems likely the camp organizers and sponsors will pay soon, because you have to figure a massive class action lawsuit is coming *soon*.  The Miami Marlins had players who broke MLB's loose rules, we're hearing...and now 18 players have tested positive.  Their season is in jeopardy.  

 

What does it take for people to grow up????

 

 

Leadership would help.....but that requires a leader.  How anyone can continue to support Trump at this point is simply beyond me.

 

 

 

 

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So a Kickstarter campaign I was backing...the organizer kinda messed up:

 

Quote

we will do postpone the campaign and engage in some more marketing awareness of the model before launching the campaign (0 marketing idea was a bad idea in hindsight - but that is 20/20 after all).

 

It occurred to me that...yes indeed...

 

Hindsight is 2020.....

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24 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

 And it's terrifying in its feeling, if you accept it has any level of validity.

 

That right there is the problem.

 

"if you accept it"

 

I know you probably didn't intend to invoke the discussion of this issue through your choice of words, unclevlad, but there's a serious societal imbalance that comes along with the subconsciously enforced notion that everything is valid. Within the United States of America, science is treated as an opinion and ignorance is given equal weight to education/experience. Most troubling is that wealth isn't just perceived as correlating to moral purity, but also authority on subjects outside the person's occupation. When it comes to public health, we're more likely to believe a millionaire governor is correct compared to the underpaid and entirely boring epidemiologist/virologist that has spent just shy of a decade studying their specialty.

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Wasn't really trying to invoke the discussion, simply acknowledging the fact that it's also not hard to feel his statement is excessive, that protection is all well and good...but the level of preparation that he's invoking is serious overkill.  It's not like you'll die suddenly.  That's a legitimate position to take, even if you completely support the core point to TAKE EVERY PRECAUTION.

 

Are people believing the governor because he's a millionaire...or the governor?  Perhaps the root problem is that yes, we're inundated with disinformation presented in the guise of fact, and that makes many distrust ALL information.  In that context, we find a pole around which to gather, and stay there...and turn off our skepticism with respect to THEIR statements.  It's a defense mechanism, IMO.  So you've got all the voices inside your pole saying one thing...that it's really not that bad.  You've got Trump manipulating "CDC recommendations" to include the highly prejudicial "it is of utmost importance to reopen schools" prequel...when that is not something the CDC should ever mention, and goes against the medical guidance.

Plus, masks ARE a pain.  Staying home IS a pain.  People want normal.  So it's a lot easier to sell that, than "stay the course."

 

I personally feel that if Dante were to write Inferno again, say, 10 years from now...Donald Trump would displace either Brutus or Cassius in one of Satan's mouths.

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Looks like Texas is starting to turn the corner.  Not the smoothest run by a long shot because people here seem mask adverse, but it looks like we're going to be out of the pandemic zone pretty soon.

 

Area we're in is still at 7 deaths per 100,000.

 

Cannot wait for this sh*t to be over.

 

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14 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

Looks like Texas is starting to turn the corner.  Not the smoothest run by a long shot because people here seem mask adverse, but it looks like we're going to be out of the pandemic zone pretty soon.

 

Very glad to hear that.  However, if you reopen your schools, you will turn back the other way.

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2 hours ago, ScottishFox said:

Looks like Texas is starting to turn the corner.  Not the smoothest run by a long shot because people here seem mask adverse, but it looks like we're going to be out of the pandemic zone pretty soon.

 

 

I don't think there's any formal, or even broadly casually accepted, definition of "in the pandemic zone"...but optimistically, I'd say 1 new case per 10,000 people per day.  Or 1/3 of the rate you have at present.  And if that was a country?  It'd STILL be among the, what, 5 or 10 worst in the world.  And that's a rate Texas has exceeded for the last 6 weeks.

 

That...and Texas' politics strongly suggest that any significant decrease will only compel relaxation measures, or increasing refusal to obey existing measures.  So best case seems to be a cyclic rate.

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It's funny how often an uptick is dismissed as "well, they caught up from unreported cases earlier", but no one ever thinks a downtick could be a buildup of those unreported cases.  Certainly pushing some work off would not likely precede a summer weekend.

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4 hours ago, Ranxerox said:

 

Very glad to hear that.  However, if you reopen your schools, you will turn back the other way.

 

You're probably right and we're 39 days plus incubation period away from finding out.

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