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13 minutes ago, Cancer said:

 

Scary read.  But there's something worse.  A late paragraph:

 

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Perhaps the biggest limitation of simulation exercises was that they didn’t actually drive policymakers to prioritize and fund improvements to the public-health system. Morrison now questions whether it’s even possible to do that through simulations alone, or whether people must experience an epidemic at first hand.

 

I question whether the US dysfunction is at such a level that even experiencing the pandemic won't be enough.

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Fever broke last night. I'm going to be okay.

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17 minutes ago, Matt the Bruins said:

Am I the only one here thinking "be sure to follow it with a bleach chaser!"?

 

5 minutes ago, Cancer said:

I can see that; I merely assumed the disinfectant was used to wash down the Tide pods.

 

That's what I like about these boards, the clean humor.

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Had a brief thought - realized the vaccine information on herd immunity is a good way to analyze herd immunity by coronavirus and its cost.

 

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/news/20181130/what-herd-immunity-and-how-does-it-protect-us

 

From 2018.  Just a reminder why Herd Immunity is not going to work. 80-95% of the population would have to be infected to largely stop a highly infectious disease.

 

150k deaths / 5 million cases... keeping in mind only 2.5 million have been discharged, so it's really 150k/2.5 million for certain... but we could be generous and say 150k/10million including 'unknowns'.  1.5% mortality rate?  Being generous and assuming the recent improvements in medicine and care would equalize against absolutely crushed resources from quantity.

 

1.5% * 80% = 1.2% deaths of the total population.  As per talked about with Spanish Flu, that killed 0.75% of the US population of the time.  So about +60% worse.

 

328 million * 1.2 = 3.9 million.  Basically coronavirus would be a greater cause of death than everything else and every other cause put together.

 

---

 

The real depressing question is what comes after this.  Coronavirus is likely to be an annual occurrence, and I question how much its mortality will drop over time because of its sheer spreading ability.  I hope the medication people have been testing works well, because even if the mortality rate dropped to only a third, it would be there behind heart attacks and stroke, killing almost about as many people yearly as our other leading killers.

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9 hours ago, archer said:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/510742-cdc-warns-against-ingesting-hand-sanitizer-after-reports-of-poisonings

 

CDC warns against ingesting hand sanitizer after reports of poisonings, deaths

I was telling one of my customers about the guys who got caught selling bleach as a cure for the virus. He said, "Drinking bleach is natural selection."

CES

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Colorado State football players allege officials are covering up Coronavirus

 

Colorado State football players and athletic department staff say coaches have told players not to report COVID-19 symptoms, threatened players with reduced playing time if they quarantine and claim CSU is altering contact tracing reports to keep players practicing.

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20 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Yes, daily cases have gotten a bit better for several days in a row.  Which is great, but we're still massively higher than almost anyone else.  One can hope that even the most pig-headed manage to learn eventually...but even that isn't proven yet.

 

 

 

 

I strongly suspect that part of this is due to under-testing or under-reporting by some other countries. 

 

China and India have respectively 5 and 4 times our population but way, way smaller case loads?

 

Not that America hasn't done a reasonably BAD job of failing to observe social distancing and mask rules.  We have.

 

I just don't buy the idea that much larger countries with higher population density and larger populations below the poverty line are controlling this disease so well.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ScottishFox said:

 

I strongly suspect that part of this is due to under-testing or under-reporting by some other countries. 

 

China and India have respectively 5 and 4 times our population but way, way smaller case loads?

 

Not that America hasn't done a reasonably BAD job of failing to observe social distancing and mask rules.  We have.

 

I just don't buy the idea that much larger countries with higher population density and larger populations below the poverty line are controlling this disease so well.

 

 

 

Fine.  Skip China;  they might be lying.  But they can locked down a LOT more, so perhaps not.  India probably isn't lying, but also probably lacks the facilities.  Either way...so what?

 

Compare to every country in Europe, which includes Russia.  Yesterday:  19,000 cases with a total population of about 750 million.  2x the population, 1/3 the cases.  With the exception of Luxembourg where the population is very small (and thus rates can be inflated)...every country in Europe is right under 1 new case per 10,000 people (Moldova) or is better.  Only 6 countries in total are worse than 1 case per 20,000 people, altho going back to the data from 2 days ago, Spain's having more problems.  SWEDEN got their numbers controlled.

 

We're not a little worse, we're TREMENDOUSLY worse.  The American response has been a complete failure.

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1 hour ago, ScottishFox said:

 

I strongly suspect that part of this is due to under-testing or under-reporting by some other countries. 

 

China and India have respectively 5 and 4 times our population but way, way smaller case loads?

 

Not that America hasn't done a reasonably BAD job of failing to observe social distancing and mask rules.  We have.

 

I just don't buy the idea that much larger countries with higher population density and larger populations below the poverty line are controlling this disease so well.

 

 

 

 

 

You may be right, but that's irrelevant to the American situation. That is far worse than it had to be, inexcusably so. And given decisions still being made about COVID-19 by people in authority in the US, it's almost certainly going to get worse before it gets better.

 

I realize you want to present a balanced perspective and try to generate hope; but there are people in the States downplaying the pandemic in America to serve their own agendas. That's promoting complacency and rebelliousness that's exacerbating the problem. At this point I would prefer to err on the side of caution, and science. I'd rather be damned for overreacting than underreacting, because the latter means more people die.

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4 hours ago, Starlord said:

Colorado State football players allege officials are covering up Coronavirus

 

Colorado State football players and athletic department staff say coaches have told players not to report COVID-19 symptoms, threatened players with reduced playing time if they quarantine and claim CSU is altering contact tracing reports to keep players practicing.

 

From an ESPN story:

Quote

Coaches, players and sports medicine staff at Colorado State University told ESPN that athletic department leaders are discouraging athletes from being tested for COVID-19, are failing to provide accurate information to local and state health officials and are ignoring guidelines to quarantine athletes who might have been exposed.

Football players have also been told their playing time could be affected by a positive test and an extensive absence due to COVID-19, according to multiple sources.

 

On the upside, the university president backed not playing at all, if the players did not feel safe.
If there's substantial truth here, there are gonna be coaches losing jobs.  

 

This is why I want to simply shut down college football.  I don't trust the schools to monitor football.  I don't trust the coaching staffs to put individual health as a priority over the team.  The entire culture of sports generally, and football especially, pushes back against this.  

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26 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

I'd rather be damned for overreacting than underreacting, because the latter means more people die.

 

I think we'll find out over the next year or so.  One of my biggest concerns from the beginning has been that our cure is going to be worse than the disease.

 

UN Food Relief program was suggesting we might see more than 100 million people starve to death due to the economic impacts of Coronavirus.

 

2020 as a whole has felt like the 2012 the Mayans promised us.  Plagues, wars, disease, famine (literal locust swarms eating massive swaths of African crops).

 

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

As a result of the coronavirus outbreak and the subsequent economic ramifications, the food agency found an additional 130 million people could be on the brink of starvation by the end of the year.

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1 hour ago, ScottishFox said:

 

I think we'll find out over the next year or so.  One of my biggest concerns from the beginning has been that our cure is going to be worse than the disease.

 

UN Food Relief program was suggesting we might see more than 100 million people starve to death due to the economic impacts of Coronavirus.

 

2020 as a whole has felt like the 2012 the Mayans promised us.  Plagues, wars, disease, famine (literal locust swarms eating massive swaths of African crops).

 

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

As a result of the coronavirus outbreak and the subsequent economic ramifications, the food agency found an additional 130 million people could be on the brink of starvation by the end of the year.

 

Our cure is going to be worse, because it's the worst of all worlds.  Inadequate precautions, mixed messages, refusing to abide by (and enforce) fundamental practices.  It's going to stretch out our economic issues FAR longer than other countries.  Europe is trying to reopen sensibly...whether they can or not, we'll have to see.  

 

Sweden found out, too.  They did nothing for a long time.  Their economy STILL got blasted.  This is not either-or...it's not "we stay open and thrive, or we shut down and wither."  If we stay open, we still do not thrive.  That's the cornerstone takeaway.

 

There is no good outcome here.  There is probably no mediocre outcome.  Those are simply not on the table.  MANY, MANY people will get crushed by this.  Overall there is nothing that can be done to stop it completely.  It CAN be slowed.  Germany shows that.  South Korea shows that.  But there will be massive harm, directly and indirectly.  There are, however, TERRIBLE approaches.  Sweden.  Brazil.  The US.  Major business downturn AND failure to contain.  

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1 hour ago, ScottishFox said:

 

I think we'll find out over the next year or so.  One of my biggest concerns from the beginning has been that our cure is going to be worse than the disease.

 

UN Food Relief program was suggesting we might see more than 100 million people starve to death due to the economic impacts of Coronavirus.

 

2020 as a whole has felt like the 2012 the Mayans promised us.  Plagues, wars, disease, famine (literal locust swarms eating massive swaths of African crops).

 

 

Yeah. If that volcano in Iceland erupts as expected, it'll pretty much be the trifecta. :(

 

I get the concerns over hunger, and people's livelihoods. But it isn't either/or. If our countries don't manage transitions out of lockdown carefully, with all necessary precautions, we'll be back into the same spiral of rampant infection within a few weeks, and have to shut down again, and that's going to make both the immediate and long-term impacts even worse. We need to be smart, and organized. Right now America has huge patches of neither, starting at the top.

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