Coronavirus

[unclevlad]

We will almost certainly pass 25,000,000 total cases tomorrow.

[TrickstaPriest]

Another coworker with a sick kid at school.

[archer]

52 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

Another coworker with a sick kid at school.

 

I'd be sorely tempted to contact the school and inform them the kid is sick. Not that the school could prove it if the kid wasn't displaying symptoms.

 

Or would take my word for it and even do as much as check the kid's temperature.

[Pariah]

4 hours ago, BarretWallace said:

I had a "ScottishFox" moment and read "beware of the spam" the first time I read that....

 

I need to beware of this. WAY to much sodium for my own good.

[TrickstaPriest]

27 minutes ago, archer said:

I'd be sorely tempted to contact the school and inform them the kid is sick. Not that the school could prove it if the kid wasn't displaying symptoms.

 

 

These are more cases where the kid came home sick.  Was bumped from school.

 

I'm more commenting on this to illustrate how fast this happens.  I think they've been going back for less than a week at this point...

[unclevlad]

5 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

I'm more commenting on this to illustrate how fast this happens.  I think they've been going back for less than a week at this point...

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-college-cases-tracker.html

 

That was overall, but there's a key point lower:

Quote

The Times has counted more than 20,000 additional cases at colleges since late July. 

 

And several other stories of schools forced to stop in-person classes.  There's no larger-scale story yet, but it's also relatively early.

 

EDIT:  as for how fast...remember that summer camp in, what, Georgia?  Where the aftermath was something like a 50% positive test rate?

[Cygnia]

COVID-19 reinfection reported in Nevada patient, researchers say

[Cancer]

Go here, read the comic, and take note of the original date of publication.

 

Sigh.

[Lord Liaden]

On 8/27/2020 at 8:16 PM, unclevlad said:

I feel for Brazil.  Arguably the one world leader whose handling of this situation has been worse than Trump's.  Their per capita death rate is now tied with ours, is rising faster, and there has been basically no mitigation of their infection rate, ergo no reason to expect a decrease in the death rate any time soon.  Their per capita infection rate is also going to pass ours within a week to 10 days...and even Spain's in around 2 weeks.

 

Brazil has been expected to take its place among the world's leading industrialized nations for half a century. Very large well-educated workforce, vast natural resources, diversified economy. Incompetence and corruption by its political leadership has undercut it every time it builds up some steam.

[unclevlad]

oh noooo...................

 

ESPN schedules a few HS football games that are basically constructed exhibition games, matching high-ranked schools from different states.  I have a big issue with doing this generally, but right now obviously it's that much worse.

 

Happened to surf onto one.  Fans were in the stands.  Lots of them.  NOT distanced at all, overall;  some sections were sparse, but more were packed.  The cameras weren't very good;  this isn't like a Power 5 game.  Mask use was a little hard to tell overall, but it looked like most were.  STILL...2, 3 hours in close proximity is a TERRIBLE idea.

 

And there's no reason to believe a normal HS football game would be any different....

 

I'm now terrified the numbers are going to explode, especially in the sections of the country that treat football as a second religion.

[Matt the Bruins]

On 8/27/2020 at 6:15 PM, archer said:

 

But how much is that in Celsius?

 

That might be the kick in the pants the Trump administration needs to convert to the metric system....

 

I'm sure they already have a plan in place to start using a 3/5 ratio to count people (depending on demographics).

 

In other news, I found out yesterday that my COVID-19 denier co-worker has a daughter who's actually contracted the virus and recovered from it. It didn't seriously harm her (I believe a young college age woman in good health), so it's obviously no worse than the flu and the huge death toll is an overblown hoax by the liberal media/Deep State/Antichrist.

[ScottishFox]

Meanwhile in Texas hospitalizations are down 60% from our late July peak.

 

The death rate is finally starting to drop as well.  Just in time for in-person schooling which begins on September 8th.

 

I suspect to see hospitalizations heading back up by September 15th and deaths by the end of the month.

 

Though the damage from the shutdown has been so bad both economically and in terms of suicide, drug overdose, domestic abuse, child abuse, etc., that I'm starting to agree with Ivan Drago.

 

[TrickstaPriest]

27 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

Though the damage from the shutdown has been so bad both economically and in terms of suicide, drug overdose, domestic abuse, child abuse, etc., that I'm starting to agree with Ivan Drago.

 

 

How much did the rate of suicide increase by, compared with last year?

[unclevlad]

12 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

How much did the rate of suicide increase by, compared with last year?

 

And what has been the cost of (and to) medical care?  Without the containment measures, what would we multiply that by?

[Michael Hopcroft]

On 8/29/2020 at 11:07 AM, unclevlad said:

oh noooo...................

 

ESPN schedules a few HS football games that are basically constructed exhibition games, matching high-ranked schools from different states.  I have a big issue with doing this generally, but right now obviously it's that much worse.

 

Happened to surf onto one.  Fans were in the stands.  Lots of them.  NOT distanced at all, overall;  some sections were sparse, but more were packed.  The cameras weren't very good;  this isn't like a Power 5 game.  Mask use was a little hard to tell overall, but it looked like most were.  STILL...2, 3 hours in close proximity is a TERRIBLE idea.

 

And there's no reason to believe a normal HS football game would be any different....

 

I'm now terrified the numbers are going to explode, especially in the sections of the country that treat football as a second religion.

Second religion? 🤑

 

But I agree that playing high school football is a pointless risk. And that ESPN scheduling these games at all, much less during a pandemic, is grossly unethical. Why put that much pressure on a 16-year-old "prospect" that early in their sophomore year?

[unclevlad]

12 minutes ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

Second religion? 🤑

 

But I agree that playing high school football is a pointless risk. And that ESPN scheduling these games at all, much less during a pandemic, is grossly unethical. Why put that much pressure on a 16-year-old "prospect" that early in their sophomore year?

 

I don't worry about the pressure on the players;  that's nothing new.  The unethical aspect is monetizing them.

[Old Man]

14 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

How much did the rate of suicide increase by, compared with last year?

 

Must be well over 180000 deaths by suicide since March, judging by the handwringing.

[Badger]

15 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

How much did the rate of suicide increase by, compared with last year?

I have heard it may have been a much higher rise among teenagers than what died from covid. Dont know for other age groups.

[TrickstaPriest]

59 minutes ago, Badger said:

I have heard it may have been a much higher rise among teenagers than what died from covid. Dont know for other age groups.

 

Ah, I see that, but its because this hits (edit:more) older people than younger people.

 

And the argument being made is somewhat incorrect.  The argument isn't how much covid killed when it's badly under control versus how much died from suicide and starvation, it's how much covid would kill when it's not tried to be controlled versus...

 

It's not a linear growth with infection, otherwise this kind of damage assessment is easy to control.  It's explosive growth, and it could have easily killed tenfold what it has so far.  That's not even a slight exaggeration - it would take a 90% infection rate to get it to slow down, and at roughly a 3% fatality rate (when overburdened), it would mean 2.7% * 330 million deaths.

[Michael Hopcroft]

46 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

Ah, I see that, but its because this hits (edit:more) older people than younger people.

 

And the argument being made is somewhat incorrect.  The argument isn't how much covid killed when it's badly under control versus how much died from suicide and starvation, it's how much covid would kill when it's not tried to be controlled versus...

 

It's not a linear growth with infection, otherwise this kind of damage assessment is easy to control.  It's explosive growth, and it could have easily killed tenfold what it has so far.  That's not even a slight exaggeration - it would take a 90% infection rate to get it to slow down, and at roughly a 3% fatality rate (when overburdened), it would mean 2.7% * 330 million deaths.

I got into a really terrible argument with my mother last night about my not owning a thermometer. She was very upset, not just because of the lack of a thermometer (she uses hers twice a day) but because I have to do grocery shopping in really terrible conditions for infection because people simply won't mask up right, either in the stop or on public transit. I would happily get grocery delivery if the services took my EBT card, but they don't. And if I bought all my groceries through VISA debit, I wouldn't have money in the bank for anything else.

 

The unavailability of this life-preserver service to poor people is rather annoying. For thopse who are completely shut in -- those who are REALLY in need -- it's more than that.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

Ah, I see that, but its because this hits (edit:more) older people than younger people.

 

And the argument being made is somewhat incorrect.  The argument isn't how much covid killed when it's badly under control versus how much died from suicide and starvation, it's how much covid would kill when it's not tried to be controlled versus...

 

It's not a linear growth with infection, otherwise this kind of damage assessment is easy to control.  It's explosive growth, and it could have easily killed tenfold what it has so far.  That's not even a slight exaggeration - it would take a 90% infection rate to get it to slow down, and at roughly a 3% fatality rate (when overburdened), it would mean 2.7% * 330 million deaths.

 

Even the 3% might be an underestimate.  Granted that the early European outbreaks were, I believe, racing through older people mostly, still...their death rates were 10-15%.  Population shifts, treatments may be better now...ok, I doubt they'd go that high, but 5 or 6%?  Yeah, I could see it.  

 

Plus, consider the *extreme* burden on ICU resources.  What does that do to recovery times and death rates for coronary care, for stroke, for acute onset conditions or flare-ups of chronic conditions, for transplant patients?  What about services to the elderly or disabled?  It's a scary thought but you have to consider that resources might have to be diverted.  And we haven't even touched on...who the heck is gonna pay for all the medical care, when 20x the number of people in the US are hit by this?

[archer]

1 hour ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

I got into a really terrible argument with my mother last night about my not owning a thermometer. She was very upset, not just because of the lack of a thermometer (she uses hers twice a day) but because I have to do grocery shopping in really terrible conditions for infection because people simply won't mask up right, either in the stop or on public transit. I would happily get grocery delivery if the services took my EBT card, but they don't. And if I bought all my groceries through VISA debit, I wouldn't have money in the bank for anything else.

 

The unavailability of this life-preserver service to poor people is rather annoying. For thopse who are completely shut in -- those who are REALLY in need -- it's more than that.

 

I own a thermometer but very rarely check my temp.

 

As for getting a thermometer, since you've been talking non-stop about working on that Pandemic Paranoia board game and are getting ready to release it just ANY MOMENT NOW, you might look into including a cheap digital thermometer in each box as part of the publicity campaign.

 

If you want to look into getting a free sample thermometer FOR YOUR BUSINESS to see if it is an appropriate promotional tool, you could contact a business such as

https://www.ideastage.com/LCD-Display-Digital-Thermometer-996266470?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIz6yJtJPE6wIVK4lbCh22vAuYEAQYByABEgIrkvD_BwE

 

 

[TrickstaPriest]

3 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Even the 3% might be an underestimate.  Granted that the early European outbreaks were, I believe, racing through older people mostly, still...their death rates were 10-15%.  Population shifts, treatments may be better now...ok, I doubt they'd go that high, but 5 or 6%?  Yeah, I could see it.  

 

I mean, I was being very, very generous at saying 3%.  Even that much would kill three times as many people as the Spanish Flu, mostly due to spread and complete shutdown of resources.

 

Naturally people will begin to take further precautions... but those who have to work will work.  And like my coworker and his girlfriend, could get a full fever that lasts a literal month (his and her temp didn't go down for ~28 days).  If he hadn't been working from home, literally everyone in my office building would have gotten it within a month.  There's no way his sick time could cover a full month.

 

It could still take a few months to go wide, but a re-opening would pretty much crush every hospital in the country.  It would just take a couple extra months to hit the really rural parts... as we saw the first time this went around.

 

So figuring out what we can do is kind of figure out where we are at and what we can do... after being at this for almost six months.

 

No joke, I was already preparing for coronavirus in the mid weeks of Feb.  Even my worst realistic expectations have been blown away by the sheer hubris of our government, however.

[Badger]

6 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

Ah, I see that, but its because this hits (edit:more) older people than younger people.

 

And the argument being made is somewhat incorrect.  The argument isn't how much covid killed when it's badly under control versus how much died from suicide and starvation, it's how much covid would kill when it's not tried to be controlled versus...

 

It's not a linear growth with infection, otherwise this kind of damage assessment is easy to control.  It's explosive growth, and it could have easily killed tenfold what it has so far.  That's not even a slight exaggeration - it would take a 90% infection rate to get it to slow down, and at roughly a 3% fatality rate (when overburdened), it would mean 2.7% * 330 million deaths.

Yeah, more factors than simple suicide vs covid

[Michael Hopcroft]

6 hours ago, archer said:

 

I own a thermometer but very rarely check my temp.

 

As for getting a thermometer, since you've been talking non-stop about working on that Pandemic Paranoia board game and are getting ready to release it just ANY MOMENT NOW, you might look into including a cheap digital thermometer in each box as part of the publicity campaign.

 

If you want to look into getting a free sample thermometer FOR YOUR BUSINESS to see if it is an appropriate promotional tool, you could contact a business such as

https://www.ideastage.com/LCD-Display-Digital-Thermometer-996266470?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIz6yJtJPE6wIVK4lbCh22vAuYEAQYByABEgIrkvD_BwE

 

 

If I were getting ready to release a Pandemic Paranoia board game, I'd already own a thermometer. As it is, I am nowhere close on either front. In fact, I've had a bad case of writers block for a while.

 

But in fact a thermometer is en route.