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Steve

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1 hour ago, death tribble said:

I have the game Pandemic. I played it with friends in February before lockdown. I keep thinking that this was prophetic.

 

I hesitate to ask -- did you and your friends win?  And do you recall how bad things got in the US during your game?  And did you name one of the colors the Coronavirus?

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2 hours ago, death tribble said:

Russia should hit 1 million cases tomorrow.

 

I have the game Pandemic. I played it with friends in February before lockdown. I keep thinking that this was prophetic. I also have the Nuclear War game. I dare not play that now.

No on the contrary go for it. If it proves prophetic it will solve the pandemic.

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1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

 

The way humanity is going, a nuclear war might be less a suicide, and more like a mercy killing.

 

https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/New-Trump-pandemic-adviser-pushes-controversial-15526711.php

 

Trump's pandemic advisor, the one who he allows to come to meetings, is pushing for a herd immunity strategy.

 

You know, let everyone get sick at once and let God sort it out...without all that pesky wondering about hospital space or keeping people alive through medical intervention.

 

The guy is a doctor but not with anything having to do with infectious diseases of any sort.

 

Leaving aside the medical issues, that sounds like a horrible campaign strategy.

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46 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

And leaving aside the fact that Sweden already tried that approach. Trump won't worry about the Swedish precedent for infections and deaths, but the fact the Swedish economy didn't benefit should make him pause. If he cared one jot for facts.

 

Why bother with a comprehensive look at the facts when you can cherry-pick the few facts that you want to look at and then only at looking at those few facts at specific points in time?

 

Sweden's strategy looks wildly successful of you look at it in mid-March and ignore that the virus hadn't made much of an appearance in the country yet so that ANY strategy or no strategy at all would have seemed successful.

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17 hours ago, archer said:

You know, let everyone get sick at once and let God sort it out...without all that pesky wondering about hospital space or keeping people alive through medical intervention.

 

It seems like a lot of people are willing to say 'lets just say eff it and find out what happens'.

 

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/compare-flu-pandemic-1918-and-covid-19-caution-180975040/

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53088354

 

Shared for the maps.  To give people an idea of what I'd expect to happen.

 

I already have at least one friend who insists its just the flu.  It's fortunate he works in an almost entirely empty office, and has no kids.

 

It's like people literally don't understand what doubling is, and how preventing doubling will make the situation look tiny in comparison.

 

There's a limit to how many times it'll straight double, but I already posted the math on how "herd immunity" would work.  And that 8 million dead is a conservative estimate (as pointed out by people literally on this thread).

 

My point in this rant is that if this continues, it could get really bad.  We can try to rely on people 'acting smart', but as I posted before... this is the exact thing that humanity is bad at.  We aren't evolved for this, and we'll get slack very quickly.  In an extremely Rural area, that doubling is slow (and that punishment for being slack is thus slower as well). 

 

But in any dense city, that doubling will result in another NYC event.

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20 hours ago, BoloOfEarth said:

I hesitate to ask -- did you and your friends win?  And do you recall how bad things got in the US during your game?  And did you name one of the colors the Coronavirus?

We won and cured all the diseases. America was ok  The major epidemics hit in Africa and Europe but were cleared up.

And no we did not name one of the viruses the Coronavirus.

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6 hours ago, Pattern Ghost said:

 

I'll need a corroborating source on that one.

 

I was reading one, give me a minute.

 

edit:

 

Ah, here we go:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-coronavirus-scott-atlas-herd-immunity/2020/08/30/925e68fe-e93b-11ea-970a-64c73a1c2392_story.html

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/31/herd-immunity-covid-19/

 

cnews.com/msnbc/rachel-maddow-show/controversial-doctor-gives-trump-highly-dubious-advice-pandemic-ncna1238843

 

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88401

 

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/514605-herd-immunity-explained-why-are-trump-officials

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-adviser-is-pushing-white-house-to-adopt-herd-immunity-2020-8

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/health/herd-immunity-coronavirus-pandemic-explainer-wellness/index.html

 

Here's videoScott Atlas on the Laura Ingraham Fox show promoting the idea of a herd immunity strategy before he was put on the Trump staff https://news.yahoo.com/dr-scott-atlas-breaks-down-030351725.html

 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/coronavirus-t-cells-immunity-scott-atlas

 

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/08/trump-new-favorite-covid-adviser-scott-atlas-thinks-herd-immunity-is-a-good-idea

 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/trumps-new-coronavirus-adviser-preaches-herd-immunity.html - this one has quotes from a Wall Street Journal op-ed written by former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb (the original op-ed is behind a paywall).

 

Here's Scott Atlas's opinion piece in The Hill from back in April promoting a herd immunity approach https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/492514-reentry-after-the-panic-paying-the-health-price-of-extreme-isolation

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8683511/White-House-taskforce-member-dubbed-anti-Fauci-pushing-controversial-herd-immunity-strategy.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/trump-makes-call-white-house-doctors-virus-advice-72404816

 

“In the absence of immunization, society needs circulation of the virus, assuming high-risk people can be isolated," he wrote.

In television appearances, Atlas has called on the nation to “get a grip" and argued that “there’s nothing wrong" with having low-risk people get infected, as long as the vulnerable are protected.

“It doesn't matter if younger, healthier people get infected. I don't know how often that has to be said. They have nearly zero risk of a problem from this," he said in one appearance. “When younger, healthier people get infected, that's a good thing," he went on to say, "because that's exactly the way that population immunity develops.”

 

 

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm - this one, and a host of other political websites and local media sites are discussing the Washington Post story if anyone wants links to those....

 

 

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45 minutes ago, archer said:

 

I was reading one, give me a minute.

 

edit:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-coronavirus-scott-atlas-herd-immunity/2020/08/30/925e68fe-e93b-11ea-970a-64c73a1c2392_story.html

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/31/herd-immunity-covid-19/

 

cnews.com/msnbc/rachel-maddow-show/controversial-doctor-gives-trump-highly-dubious-advice-pandemic-ncna1238843

 

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm  - this one, and a host of other political websites and local media sites are discussing the Washington Post story

 

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88401

 

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/514605-herd-immunity-explained-why-are-trump-officials

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-adviser-is-pushing-white-house-to-adopt-herd-immunity-2020-8

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/health/herd-immunity-coronavirus-pandemic-explainer-wellness/index.html

 

Here's videoScott Atlas on the Laura Ingraham Fox show promoting the idea of a herd immunity strategy before he was put on the Trump staff https://news.yahoo.com/dr-scott-atlas-breaks-down-030351725.html

 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/coronavirus-t-cells-immunity-scott-atlas

 

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/08/trump-new-favorite-covid-adviser-scott-atlas-thinks-herd-immunity-is-a-good-idea

 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/trumps-new-coronavirus-adviser-preaches-herd-immunity.html

 

Here's Scott Atlas's opinion piece in The Hill from back in April promoting a herd immunity approach https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/492514-reentry-after-the-panic-paying-the-health-price-of-extreme-isolation

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8683511/White-House-taskforce-member-dubbed-anti-Fauci-pushing-controversial-herd-immunity-strategy.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/trump-makes-call-white-house-doctors-virus-advice-72404816

 

“In the absence of immunization, society needs circulation of the virus, assuming high-risk people can be isolated," he wrote.

In television appearances, Atlas has called on the nation to “get a grip" and argued that “there’s nothing wrong" with having low-risk people get infected, as long as the vulnerable are protected.

“It doesn't matter if younger, healthier people get infected. I don't know how often that has to be said. They have nearly zero risk of a problem from this," he said in one appearance. “When younger, healthier people get infected, that's a good thing," he went on to say, "because that's exactly the way that population immunity develops.”

 

There's the fox interview with Laura Ingraham where Trump directly goes on about that (for at least a tiny bit).  "Once you have a 'certain number' [of people infected], it is going to go away." 

 

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/herd-immunity

 

"Herd immunity only works if most people in the population are vaccinated (for example, 19 out of every 20 people need to be vaccinated against measles to protect people who are not vaccinated). If people are not vaccinated, herd immunity is not guaranteed to protect them. Vaccination rates are high in the UK as a whole, but this hides the fact that rates are much lower in some parts of the UK and in some communities."

 

So that "certain number" is like 70-95%, and people are (incredibly shockingly generously) saying with a 1% fatality rate (as if hospital coverage would actually exist with tens of millions would sick) that would still be millions.  I'd say closer to ten million.  It might take a whole year to get there or so, but.

 

 FWIW, since Spanish Flu had an overall 0.75% mortality rate, herd immunity at only 75% and a 1% fatality rate would still be exactly on point.

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8 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

There's the fox interview with Laura Ingraham where Trump directly goes on about that (for at least a tiny bit).  "Once you have a 'certain number' [of people infected], it is going to go away." 

 

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/herd-immunity

 

"Herd immunity only works if most people in the population are vaccinated (for example, 19 out of every 20 people need to be vaccinated against measles to protect people who are not vaccinated). If people are not vaccinated, herd immunity is not guaranteed to protect them. Vaccination rates are high in the UK as a whole, but this hides the fact that rates are much lower in some parts of the UK and in some communities."

 

So that "certain number" is like 70-95%, and people are (incredibly shockingly generously) saying with a 1% fatality rate (as if hospital coverage would actually exist with tens of millions would sick) that would still be millions.  I'd say closer to ten million.  It might take a whole year to get there or so, but.

 

 FWIW, since Spanish Flu had an overall 0.75% mortality rate, herd immunity at only 75% and a 1% fatality rate would still be exactly on point.

 

Back before the scientists say the European covid strain mutated so that it only took 1/10th as much to infect someone as before, the experts were saying that it was as infectious as measles. 

 

I linked to a medical article in this discussion a couple of months ago which said that you needed a herd immunity rate in the 90-95% range with a disease which was as infectious as measles.

 

And they were saying covid was as infectious as measles BEFORE it mutated to become even more infectious.

 

So I look skeptically at stories which say we'd hit herd immunity at 60%...or even at 70%. 

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4 minutes ago, archer said:

So I look skeptically at stories which say we'd hit herd immunity at 60%...or even at 70%. 

 

Yep.  Same with how I look at the 1% fatality rate - that's 1% with access to modern medicines and hospitals, which would be among the first things you'd lose when you have 40-80 million seriousish cases.  Just the act of attempting to triage that to decide who really needs medicine (which would need to be taken for potentially a month, so access to perhaps 21-30 pills per person) would be a nightmare, let alone who gets an actual hospital room.

 

I should add, the interview I am referencing was in the last couple of days.  So this is a recent dialogue of his.

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Even the most conservative herd-immunity numbers...reached at 70%, 1% mortality rate...mean over 2 million deaths in the US. 

 

Also, if we want to be brutal?  Blacks and Latinos are about 5x more likely to be hospitalized than whites/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html#hospitalizations

 

So Trump may just see this as cleaning up the voting lists.

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55 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

The discussion is still focusing on fatality rates. The self-described elites should consider the long-term health problems that are connected to "recovery" from COVID-19. People with heart and lung conditions make poor laborers.

 

Only a percentage of them need to survive and if they can't work as long...well we'll just have to rotate the drones out more often....

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