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Steve

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Guys - we're lapsing into the political again.

I know that it's hard to keep politics out of a discussion of COVID-19, but posts that are primarily (or even pointedly) about politics need to be made in the political discussion thread. I want to keep this thread open, but will need to close it or start issuing infractions if the political posts continue.

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15 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

The discussion is still focusing on fatality rates. The self-described elites should consider the long-term health problems that are connected to "recovery" from COVID-19. People with heart and lung conditions make poor laborers.

 

Yeah, unfortunately I haven't seen any large sample tests on this, so I've been avoiding talking about that for now.

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Texas numbers continue to improve, but we're 5 days away from schools re-opening for in-person education.

 

image.png.593c01af59edf328d21f69699c2e36ae.png

 

I expect to see the schools shut down within 2-3 weeks of the re-opening.  The wife and I are somewhat reluctant to pony up for the after-school care given the likelihood that we'll be back to having the kiddo at home within 2-3 weeks.

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I'm not a life sciences guy (as an undergrad, I enjoyed Biochem so much I took it twice). So while I am used to scientific literature, I'm not quite sure what to make of this report.  Also, I'm not too familiar with the journal (eLife) referenced in the article. So while I found this article interesting, I'm not sure how seriously I should take it.

 

A little help, someone?

 

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

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48 minutes ago, Pariah said:

I'm not a life sciences guy (as an undergrad, I enjoyed Biochem so much I took it twice). So while I am used to scientific literature, I'm not quite sure what to make of this report.  Also, I'm not too familiar with the journal (eLife) referenced in the article. So while I found this article interesting, I'm not sure how seriously I should take it.

 

A little help, someone?

 

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

I read the article with my G&E Medical Physiology in my lap. It's been a while since I took the MP course, but some things apparently stuck.

 

I like what I read -- I found no glaring flaws in what was presented, it all matches up with the textbooks. One downer is that most of the pharmaceuticals mentioned in lowering the bradykinin's effect, only the ikatibant is still available (at east over here in Sweden, according to FASS), and it's only for treatment of hereditary angio-oedema. But it is probably available for trials.

 

Perhaps one should stock up on vitamin D supplements?

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1 hour ago, Pariah said:

I'm not a life sciences guy (as an undergrad, I enjoyed Biochem so much I took it twice). So while I am used to scientific literature, I'm not quite sure what to make of this report.  Also, I'm not too familiar with the journal (eLife) referenced in the article. So while I found this article interesting, I'm not sure how seriously I should take it.

 

A little help, someone?

 

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

 

 

It causes the body's mechanisms for regulating bradykinin to go haywire.  Everyone knows the only thing that can control a bunch of bradykin is the calm and steadying influence of Mike and Carol Brady.

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Yeah, that article is consistent with a number of others I've seen.  The bradykinin connection is new, but from Wikipedia:

 

Quote

Bradykinin (Greek brady-, slow; -kinin, kīn(eîn) to move) is a peptide that promotes inflammation. It causes arterioles to dilate (enlarge) via the release of prostacyclin, nitric oxide, and endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factor and makes veins constrict, via prostaglandin F2, thereby leading to leakage into capillary beds, due to the increased pressure in the capillaries. Bradykinin is a physiologically and pharmacologically active peptide of the kinin group of proteins, consisting of nine amino acids.

A class of drugs called angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE inhibitors) increase bradykinin levels by inhibiting its degradation, thereby increasing its blood pressure lowering effect. ACE inhibitors are FDA approved for the treatment of hypertension and heart failure.

 

Inflammation issues have been noted before;  remember some time ago when steroids were being considered.

 

It's also being posed as a hypothesis, not offered as an answer.  It's testable in straightforward, open ways.

More articles:
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/is-a-bradykinin-storm-brewing-in-covid-19--67876

 

https://www.biospace.com/article/-oak-ridge-researchers-use-supercomputer-on-covid-19/

 

Also of note...I might've missed this in the Elemental article, but the Biospace article points out, the supercomputer research was done at Oak Ridge.  

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20 hours ago, death tribble said:

Russia now has 1 million cases.

And in a somewhat surprising turn of events France has more cases than Italy

 

France and Spain are seeing a serious second wave.  Spain has been seeing a steady growth that started in mid-July.  There is a funky, major drop for 10 days but the last 2 days have new case numbers consistent with the growth that started in July.  France's case numbers started climbing in August;  they're increasing at a scary pace.  The 7-day average...France's daily numbers always seem shaky, making me wonder about their data collection process...on Aug. 2nd was under 1000;  it's now over 5000 per day.  That works out to about 1 case per 12,000 people.  Spain's is much worse there...the last 3 days, it's been a 1 new case per 5000 people.  

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5 hours ago, L. Marcus said:

I read the article with my G&E Medical Physiology in my lap. It's been a while since I took the MP course, but some things apparently stuck.

 

I like what I read -- I found no glaring flaws in what was presented, it all matches up with the textbooks. One downer is that most of the pharmaceuticals mentioned in lowering the bradykinin's effect, only the ikatibant is still available (at east over here in Sweden, according to FASS), and it's only for treatment of hereditary angio-oedema. But it is probably available for trials.

 

Perhaps one should stock up on vitamin D supplements?

 

I like a hypothesis which seems to answer all the questions that have been asked. But I don't even play a medical professional even in internet discussions. :D 

 

I've heard the vitamin D theory months ago. I have to take 5000 IU per day because my naturally-occurring levels are so low. I'd wondered whether that has something to do with being able to shake off the COVID-like health event I had through January and February.

 

I hope people don't hear about this and start hoarding vitamin D. I have trouble finding it in stores at that dosage at the best of times.

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2 minutes ago, Cygnia said:

Well, the husband's oldest nephew just got diagnosed with it down in college (OSU).

 

My sympathies. Two of my adult kids got it and pulled through. 

 

If he's college-aged and no serious underlying health issues, he's got excellent chances. Not that the facts prevent worries....

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I can't post a screen capture as I would like, so in words....

 

Go to Washington State Dept of Health COVID-19 Data Dashboard.  Dial up Confirmed Case Counts.

 

Whitman County, WA.  Prior to August 14, the largest case count reported on any single day was 6.

 

Over the interval Aug 19-Aug 31 (and all this is within the nominal "possible incomplete reporting" interval), the smallest new daily case count was 18.

 

Whitman County is where Pullman is, the main campus of Washington State University.

 

First day of classes there was Aug 24.

 

 

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Ohhh....I'm not liking the numbers at Worldometers today.  Slight uptick yesterday, at least from the last few days;  but almost 33,000 cases today, mid-afternoon here, is threatening a fairly significant uptick.  NOT a trend yet, but in this case, any indication of the expectation (of a rise in cases) is Not Good.

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