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13 minutes ago, Cancer said:

I can't post a screen capture as I would like, so in words....

 

Go to Washington State Dept of Health COVID-19 Data Dashboard.  Dial up Confirmed Case Counts.

 

Whitman County, WA.  Prior to August 14, the largest case count reported on any single day was 6.

 

Over the interval Aug 19-Aug 31 (and all this is within the nominal "possible incomplete reporting" interval), the smallest new daily case count was 18.

 

Whitman County is where Pullman is, the main campus of Washington State University.

 

First day of classes there was Aug 24.

 

 

 

BUT, that also means the case rise started before classes.  OK, you'll have quite a few students coming back a few days early, but that feels like it's too soon for this bump.  I'm not saying you're wrong;  

 

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/WSU-Pullman-suddenly-a-covid-hot-spot-No-6-in-nation-for-new-cases-150959080/

 

reports students getting fined for violating the gathering rules.  I'd like a deeper dive into the numbers, tho.

Still:  there will be a sizable minority of morons.  It's college, for one thing;  then there's that hard-core group of (insert extensive NSFW diatribe here) that feel an obligation to NOT wear masks or do any distancing.  I suspect the former group is actually larger than the latter;  remember spring break.  

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Fever broke last night. I'm going to be okay.

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CovidTracking.com numbers are OK, but not as good as I was hoping.

 

Texas numbers should explode in about 10 days (most schools opened up for in person this week or will next week on Sept 8th.).

 

I think even the most stubborn people will have to admit this is much worse than the seasonal flu and its still going.

 

But it's not as bad as the 1917-18 flu which would have killed 16.5 million Americans based on today's population.  Though, that number would probably be reduced by massive improvements in health care.

 

National:

image.thumb.png.ef552cc96412e042a44428d486a532d6.png

 

Texas:

image.thumb.png.7b17d0d69b3f5546168d5028b7d543cc.png

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22 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

 

BUT, that also means the case rise started before classes.  OK, you'll have quite a few students coming back a few days early, but that feels like it's too soon for this bump.  I'm not saying you're wrong;  

 

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/WSU-Pullman-suddenly-a-covid-hot-spot-No-6-in-nation-for-new-cases-150959080/

 

reports students getting fined for violating the gathering rules.  I'd like a deeper dive into the numbers, tho.

Still:  there will be a sizable minority of morons.  It's college, for one thing;  then there's that hard-core group of (insert extensive NSFW diatribe here) that feel an obligation to NOT wear masks or do any distancing.  I suspect the former group is actually larger than the latter;  remember spring break.  

 

Well, some students do arrive early, especially participants in the fraternity/sorority system.  (Personal info: I was faculty there for four years in the terminal 1990s.)  So in fact, this is exactly as I would have expected had I been pressed to predict back, say, about Aug 1.

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20 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

I think even the most stubborn people will have to admit this is much worse than the seasonal flu and its still going.

 

But it's not as bad as the 1917-18 flu which would have killed 16.5 million Americans based on today's population.  Though, that number would probably be reduced by massive improvements in health care.

 

On your top point:  sadly, no.  There is still a component that doesn't believe.

 

On your bottom point...you have absolutely no basis for this statement, because the situations are totally different.  OF COURSE an epidemic with almost no mediation techniques applied, with almost no therapy available, and which lasted MUCH, MUCH longer (18 months compared to 6) is going to yield a higher per capita death count.  SO WHAT???  

AND as has been pointed out:  death rates are not the be-all and end-all.  Even most serious (but not fatal) flu infections resolve to no long-term damage.  With the coronavirus, the litany of organs damaged (long term or *permanently*) is extensive.

 

On EVERY measure of epidemic severity, the Spanish flu rates out as about a bobcat...whereas the coronavirus rates out as a tiger.

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14 minutes ago, Cancer said:

 

Well, some students do arrive early, especially participants in the fraternity/sorority system.  (Personal info: I was faculty there for four years in the terminal 1990s.)  So in fact, this is exactly as I would have expected had I been pressed to predict back, say, about Aug 1.

 

And we have heard of a few cases where frats and sororities completely disregarded the rules.  Not saying it's not possible;  I just like a deeper dive when I see something that doesn't look quite right.  It might not take that much, because certainly, the major rise was after classes kicked in.  If even 1 party became a seeder event, then the ongoing mingling as more people returned does provide a totally plausible hypothesis.

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Ohhh....spit...

 

It's only 1 day, but midnight GMT is about an hour away...and WorldOMeters shows ~ 53,000 new cases today.  Highest since mid-August.  One day is not a trend, as I said, but it's still worrisome.  Oh gee, and it's Labor Day weekend.

 

Oh, and now we've passed Sweden for per capita death rate.

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21 hours ago, ScottishFox said:

But it's not as bad as the 1917-18 flu which would have killed 16.5 million Americans based on today's population.  Though, that number would probably be reduced by massive improvements in health care.

 

 

0.0075 * 330 million = 2.475 million by today's standards.

 

There was already about 101 million during the 1917s from what I saw, and it killed roughly 750k, give or take.  So any number beyond 3 times that is unlikely.

 

1916 101,961,000 1.41%
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11 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

0.0075 * 330 million = 2.475 million by today's standards.

 

There was already about 101 million during the 1917s from what I saw, and it killed roughly 750k, give or take.  So any number beyond 3 times that is unlikely.

 

1916 101,961,000 1.41%

 

You're correct.  I was basing my napkin math on the virus taking out 3-5% of the population of the world, but the death rate in America was MUCH lower (675k-750k).

 

Good catch!  Thanks.

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13 hours ago, ScottishFox said:

You're correct.  I was basing my napkin math on the virus taking out 3-5% of the population of the world, but the death rate in America was MUCH lower (675k-750k).

 

 

Thanks for the reply on this!  I appreciate the callout, I was wholly like "I thought I posted this calculation like four times now!" but patience is a virtue, and I figured later that you may have been using whole-world fatality rates.  :) 

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8 minutes ago, BarretWallace said:

What is a good place to go for reliable Covid data now?  My first instinct always used to be CDC, but with the recent...meddling, I'm looking for other options too.

 

I use WorldOMeters;  I think some others use OurWorldInData.  Johns Hopkins also maintains a good site.

 

That said, I'm not sure how independent any of these are from federal sources.

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