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I tested positive.

Fever broke last night. I'm going to be okay.

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On 9/9/2020 at 7:38 AM, ScottishFox said:

Yeah, we're not containing this thing.  It's so contagious we need close to 100% compliance with safety protocols and we're just not going to get that.

 

We had our chance to.  But the alternative to not trying to contain it at all is literally million plus dead, so... finding the middle road is actually the best option.

22 hours ago, ScottishFox said:

Texas numbers are holding up better than expected.  I thought last week would wreck us, but perhaps we'll need another week or two for the mass influx of school related cases to pop up.

 

 

Good luck.

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Listening to a webinar as I type this.  A comment is that from US prison systems, looks like we'll need about 50% to 70% of the population with immunity (either via vaccination or prior infection) before any sort of herd immunity can exist.

 

And ... testing needs to be made much easier and far more widespread and frequent before we'll have a real handle on the presence of the disease.  The differences in fatality rates between countries has much more to do with the age structure of the subset of the society which is initially exposed to the disease.

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"A key problem here in the US ... is that a third of the population doesn't believe it's real."

 

"Many of these [test] methods only have sensitivities only 50 to 70 percent ... even [the newer, highly-touted ones] ... and testing doesn't matter if [test results don't change behavior and policy]."

 

"If you have a vaccination that is only 50% effective ... and that's the level the FDA has indicated it's willing to approve ... and if only 50% of the population gets the vaccination ... then you've still got a quarter of the population who can [and will] get the disease."

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1 hour ago, Cancer said:

"If you have a vaccination that is only 50% effective ... and that's the level the FDA has indicated it's willing to approve ... and if only 50% of the population gets the vaccination ... then you've still got a quarter of the population who can [and will] get the disease."

A 50% ieffectiveness rate from a vaccine is not acceptable, even if it takes into account the substantial number of people who will refuse it. The stakes are just too high. It was five years between the first public announcement of the polio vaccine (in 1950) and it becoming available to the general public. A good vaccine is likely to take more time to develop than some would expect.

 

People who have been vaccinated against a disease have a mental expectation that they will be bulletproof. If the vaccine doesn't work half the time, the other half of recipients are in big trouble...

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His other significant point is that predisposing conditions matter much more than has been emphasized.  If you're physically fit and under the age of 60, you've got much less risk than others.  BUt (e.g.) a 22-year-old with a BMI of 38 is in real danger.  One of the reasons the US fatality rate is so high is because our obesity rate is so high.  Cardiac and respiratory conditions also drastically increase your risk.  And if you're 60+, well, the risks are big for you right out of the box.

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Yeah, one of the things that worries me personally is that I have hypertension. It's extremely well-managed by medication so my readings are always good and I don't have more concerns about a stroke than the average person on the street. But I have no idea if the COVID-19 comorbidity kicks in only if the circulatory system is stressed by actually having high blood pressure, or if having the underlying condition with no symptoms is enough to put one at greater risk.

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7 hours ago, Matt the Bruins said:

Yeah, one of the things that worries me personally is that I have hypertension. It's extremely well-managed by medication so my readings are always good and I don't have more concerns about a stroke than the average person on the street. But I have no idea if the COVID-19 comorbidity kicks in only if the circulatory system is stressed by actually having high blood pressure, or if having the underlying condition with no symptoms is enough to put one at greater risk.

 

My instinct, from reading layman's articles about how the virus attacks the body, is to think that it probably depends on how damaged your circulatory system is rather than whether your blood pressure is high at any one particular point in time.

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Not that anyone here is dumb enough to go out to eat nowadays, but:

 

 

Quote

When the researchers restricted their analysis to participants without known close contact with a person with confirmed COVID-19, case-patients were three to four times more likely to report dining at a restaurant or going to a bar or coffee shop than were control-participants.

 

 

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Texas managed to get through the opening week of school in reasonably good shape.  That being said we just got a letter from our school district indicating the first positive test case for someone in the school.  :S

 

R0 number is the best in the country (for today).

image.png.abf22f0408ff1c6c7c9578198aca639e.png

 

New Cases are down.  Hospitalizations are WAY down and daily death numbers are trending down as well.

image.png.d6451330629718b4b18111146bfb3b07.png

 

Even if we see a rebound (and I'm convinced we will) we should stay within hospital capacities.

 

Mortality rate in our area of Texas is 12.4 per 100,000.  Just over twice the murder rate and an exact match for firearm death rate.

But, for the state as a whole Coronavirus would be in 3rd place on the "What kills people in Texas" list so the distribution of the illness must be really uneven.  Overall it would be in the 50-55 per 100k range.

I live in a county with a million people and we're below 25% of that.

 

image.png.e8336e8eae47fcb81decebefbba6ccda.png

 

Wife is still scared to death.  Can't wait for 2021.  This year has suh-hucked.

 

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They note that an “optimistic” herd immunity threshold of 50% would not be reached in the United States before “500,000–2,100,000 deaths”.

Estimating the cost without a vaccine.  Other estimates of the needed immunity threshold are up at 70%.

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