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2 hours ago, Pariah said:

More than 30 students at my school are under quarantine for the next two weeks. Only one student tested positive, but with 30+ students in every room for four 86-minute periods every day Monday through Thursday.....

 

Not to mention passing each others in the hall, riding school buses, standing around outside before and after schools, hanging around lockers....

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I tested positive.

Fever broke last night. I'm going to be okay.

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Two links from Nature this morning...

 

Some questionable data in the paper about the Russian vaccine trial

 

Stillbirth rate has risen significantly during the pandemic ... this is probably not the coronavirus itself, but rather collateral damage from the decreased availability in prenatal and perinatal care brought on by pandemic measures; both from a direct result of lockdown, and second-order results from reallocation of health resources.

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4 hours ago, Matt the Bruins said:

I wouldn't entirely rule out increased stress on the mothers as a contributing  factor apart from medical care.

 

Doubt anyone would seriously argue that.  How much of a factor, might be unquantifiable, but a factor.

 

I wasn't sure if it was gonna happen today...

 

But it did.

 

By WorldOMeters' count, the US passed 200,000 recorded coronavirus deaths this afternoon.  This represents something over 20% of the total attributed deaths so far.

 

Oh, and possibly tomorrow...Thursday at latest...the world's total number of cases will exceed 30 million.

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3 hours ago, Pariah said:

Utahns gonna Utah:

 

Poll: Only half of Utahns say they’d take FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine

 

Given that my fair state pretty much leads the nation in science-denying conspiracy theorist anti-vaxxer plague enthusiast nutjobs, this news is hardly surprising.

 

I wouldn't trust the current administration's FDA-approved vaccine anytime in the next couple of years. There's just been too much political pressure on the health bureaucracy for comfort.

 

I might trust one from the EU or Japan.

 

Or Canada.

Edited by archer
Needed to include Canada
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21 hours ago, Old Man said:

You know, two weeks ago, projections had us reaching 200k around 9/30.  We're two weeks ahead of schedule.

 

Two weeks ago?  I think it had to be farther back than that.  Aug. 23rd is 3 weeks ago, and we were at ~180,000 deaths.  And average deaths per day were down a bit, but still close to 1000.  Now, of course, one can ask WHOSE projections...

 

If we go back further...in early July the death numbers had dropped quite a bit, and new cases were only starting to be *quite* scary.  July was the disaster month.  August wasn't a lot better;  numbers did trend down but they were SO high at the July peak.  We've pretty much been near the worst-case projections, I suspect, for that period.

 

Another aspect is that the average daily death rate has remained high now for 2 months;  for August it was 1000 a day.  Again, probably only aligned with the pessimistic projections.

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It is MUCH too early to read too much into this but...

 

New cases had a small uptick yesterday, relative to the last couple weeks.  With 4 hours left in the WorldOMeters reporting day, we're at 43,000+, which would be about average...so we're very likely looking at a more significant uptick today.  From my observations, another 10,000 cases is quite possible in these late afternoon/early evening hours.  If so, this'd be the highest number of cases in a day since mid-August;  Sept. 4th was a touch under 53,000, but you have to go back to Aug. 14th or 15th to find another day with notably over 50K.

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Those are U.S. numbers?  The rolling average for new cases started a sharp increase about five days ago.  I assume this has to do with schools and colleges stupidly reopening.

 

If Worldometers' 2.5M U.S. active case count is correct, if the IFR is 1% then that's 25000 Americans who are already dead and just don't know it yet.  The nationwide COVID death count has been pretty linear for a couple of months; I'd say we're a lock for 300000 total dead by the end of the year if that trajectory holds.  And I don't see any reason why it would get better.  That's an even 100 9/11s.

 

 

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A brief review of SARS-CoV-2 and the testis

 

Quote
During the past SARS epidemic, several studies demonstrated the relationship between members of the coronavirus family (SARS-CoV) and orchitis. Even if SARS-CoV virus has not been detected in testicular tissue (Ding et al., 2004), testicular damage and germ cell destruction was clearly observed in these cases (Xu et al., 2006).
 
...
 
Recent studies have demonstrated a high expression of ACE2 in kidney and testicular tissue, in particular in spermatogonia, Sertoli cells and Leydig cells, suggesting possible effects on spermatogenesis and the possible occurrence of orchitis in male SARS-CoV-2 patients (Cardona Maya et al., 2020;Fan et al., 2020;Liu et al., 2020;Wang et al., 2020).

 

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5 hours ago, Old Man said:

Those are U.S. numbers?  The rolling average for new cases started a sharp increase about five days ago.  I assume this has to do with schools and colleges stupidly reopening.

 

If Worldometers' 2.5M U.S. active case count is correct, if the IFR is 1% then that's 25000 Americans who are already dead and just don't know it yet.  The nationwide COVID death count has been pretty linear for a couple of months; I'd say we're a lock for 300000 total dead by the end of the year if that trajectory holds.  And I don't see any reason why it would get better.  That's an even 100 9/11s.

 

 

 

The 7 day rolling average started going up, but I wouldn't call it a sharp increase.  Still, it is the first time the rolling average has flipped direction and started increasing again since mid July...and THAT is what worries me.

 

Also, we have 200K dead on just under 6.9M cases...and most of the cases have been in the last 6 weeks, so it's harder to assert it's tied to the elderly, as one might've been able to argue back in April.  So the fatality rate is more like 3%.  Which means...not 25,000 but closer to 70,000 or so.  Even if it's 2%, that's 50,000 more.  

If this is the start of another wave, tho...yes, it's likely we'll exceed 300K deaths by the end of the year, but it's not certain IMO.  New case numbers did decline for several weeks;  we can hope deaths might, too.  That said, it seems very likely that, at the least, we'll be very close to that.

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14 hours ago, Old Man said:

Those are U.S. numbers?  The rolling average for new cases started a sharp increase about five days ago.  I assume this has to do with schools and colleges stupidly reopening.

 

If Worldometers' 2.5M U.S. active case count is correct, if the IFR is 1% then that's 25000 Americans who are already dead and just don't know it yet.  The nationwide COVID death count has been pretty linear for a couple of months; I'd say we're a lock for 300000 total dead by the end of the year if that trajectory holds.  And I don't see any reason why it would get better.  That's an even 100 9/11s.

 

 

 

Trump going back to doing rallies (particularly indoors) probably isn't going to us any favors either.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

 

Trump going back to doing rallies (particularly indoors) probably isn't going to us any favors either.

The piecemeal return of in-person classes and in-person sporting events isn't helping either. Participant bubbles seem to work for some sports (and for indoor sports are a virtual necessity) but risk a further divide betwen college athletes and rank-and-file students. At the same time, in-person classes in public schools are endangering students on a daily basis, which online classes leave out much of the lower classes and further widen that divide.

 

How do you learn in an online class when the Internet itself is financially out of your reach? And how do you learn in an ICU?

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Anecdotally I have a friend traveling through Florida who's been saying even the nurse attending his infirm mother there is talking about Coronavirus like it's a hoax.  Literally "Oh they are banning visitors from visiting their parents it's so terrible!  The whole hoax needs to go away already."

 

I think Florida is a disaster waiting to happen.

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1 hour ago, TrickstaPriest said:

I think Florida is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

"Waiting to happen"?!?  Have you never heard of Florida Man?  Florida is an ongoing train wreck, with new trains coming in every once in a while just for sh**s and giggles.  That their collective response to coronavirus is potential lunacy should surprise nobody at all. 

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