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Steve

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1 minute ago, Pariah said:

Just thinking off the top of my head here, but has anyone talked to Spain recently to see if they want to buy Florida back? We could really make them a deal, I expect.

 

There's nothing wrong with Florida as a property so I wouldn't want to get rid of it at a discount.

 

You could argue that by allowing all the people to die off from COVID that the state is just reducing the number of future hurricane victims.

 

(Sorry, I deal with tragedy through dark humor.) 

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Model-based assessment of the outcome of school reopenings during the COVID-19 pandemic

 

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Our findings indicate that, regardless of the initial prevalence of the disease, and in the absence of systematic surveillance testing, most schools in the United States can expect to remain open for 20-60 days. At this point, one or more large disease clusters can be expected to be detected, forcing schools to close again. These disease clusters, in turn, can be expected to propagate through the community, with potentially hundreds to thousands of additional cases resulting from each individual school cluster.

 

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The local paper is reporting that my school currently has 13 active cases. State board of health recommendation is 2-week shutdown once we hit 15.

 

We had ~30 students called down to the front office today at the beginning of first period. Sure enough, I've got e-mails from two of them telling me they're in quarantine.

 

A school in a neighboring district refused to shut down even after ~50 positive cases (and 500 students in quarantine) due to pressure from families.

 

Our district rep told the paper we're not going to defy the health department on this (i.e., we're not as stupid as that other district). This gives me some hope.

 

I fully expect to be teaching from home again by the end of the week.

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I was waiting for the Coronavirus numbers to flip after the schools opened and it looks like we might be seeing the beginning of the case explosion:

 

The single day new cases is the highest ever.  Hospitalizations and deaths are at the lowest numbers in a couple of months, but I wonder if they'll stay that way after the new cases flow through the system.

 

Yikes.

 

image.png.4ce43bb181a04fcb9e706b5b8254c1a9.png

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Top ten state per capita case count is solid Midwest--the Dakotas (Sturgis!), Wisconsin, Utah, Iowa, Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska, with Texas breaking back in over the past couple of days.

 

Worse, though, is the test positivity in most of those states.  Double digit test positivity means a lot of cases are being missed.

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