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I'm going back into self-isolation for a while. I got groceries delivered form Amazon, am trying to cut down/out my soda, and I'm going to try and avoid shopping as much as I can. besides, the last time I went to the local version of the Kroger chain (may their shells be blighted) I ended up buying only stuff that was bad for me.

 

This means I'm going to have to rely on friends more than I'm used to. But the second wave is hitting, and I don't want to contribute to the problem. If I don't have to go anywhere, I won't.

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Fever broke last night. I'm going to be okay.

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1 hour ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

I'm going back into self-isolation for a while. I got groceries delivered form Amazon, am trying to cut down/out my soda, and I'm going to try and avoid shopping as much as I can. besides, the last time I went to the local version of the Kroger chain (may their shells be blighted) I ended up buying only stuff that was bad for me.

 

This means I'm going to have to rely on friends more than I'm used to. But the second wave is hitting, and I don't want to contribute to the problem. If I don't have to go anywhere, I won't.

 

Good luck.

 

Kroger chain is hit and miss for me on whether they're stocked with items I want to buy during this pandemic. When I want to buy staples, they're out of staples. When I want to buy junk food and soda, they're out of junk food and soda. 

 

But they're significantly cheaper for the way I shop (buying only sale items and close out items as much as humanly possible) than my next cheapest option (Wal-Mart, which doesn't have sale items, as such).

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Man, the R0 numbers are looking bad today.  Looks like the winter bump is going to be a real thing.

43 of 50 states are seeing an increase in spread.

 

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33 minutes ago, archer said:

 

Have you ever gone to Staples and tried to buy flour, rice, oats, and cooking oil?

 

They look at you like you're crazy!

 

You didn't lead with bacon.  It's unnatural.  :)

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Yeah, that's not great.

 

I wholly believe it varies because of the multiple strains, but that's belief and not fact.  We know blood types factor in, and comorbidities, and maybe initial viral payload, but that's hard to track right now for sure.

 

I had a friend around 40ish who used to be obese, but has been athletic, fit, and of a normal weight for over a year.  More so than I am by far, with no other complications than I know of.  He was bedridden with pneumonia for weeks after he caught it.  His doctor never sent him to the hospital, but he had breathing trouble, complained of feeling like he was drowning when he was sleeping or trying to sleep, and sounded like he expected to die.  He probably wouldn't have been far off if it had taken longer.

 

No idea what meds he was given, but it certainly wasn't whatever a wealthy, powerful, influential senator or other individual could expect immediately upon getting sick.  He was never hospitalized or given that level of treatment, apparently.

 

My point isn't politics, but that getting testing and treatment early, and a high level of treatment, is probably king.

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10 minutes ago, archer said:

 

Sigh.  Well, that'd get us into WWII territory (405,399) and, given that the most likely date for general vaccine availability is next September, would put the totals for the Spanish Flu (675,000) and the First Civil War (625,000) squarely within reach.

 

The situation doesn't look any better in the EU either.  I'm wondering if I shouldn't take a yearlong vacation in Australia.

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2 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

Sigh.  Well, that'd get us into WWII territory (405,399) and, given that the most likely date for general vaccine availability is next September, would put the totals for the Spanish Flu (675,000) and the First Civil War (625,000) squarely within reach.

 

The situation doesn't look any better in the EU either.  I'm wondering if I shouldn't take a yearlong vacation in Australia.

The dingos would eat you

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As the article notes, our surge mighta started a bit later, but it darn sure is here now.  The data day is mostly over;  I think there's some processing lag, and/or a window to allow for reporting lag, so the WorldOMeters day is basically done, if not closed out just yet...at over 71,000 cases today.  Makes it, I think, only the 7th time the US has passed the 70,000 case mark.


What's almost equally concerning is that the daily deaths never dropped all that much.  Granted that deaths is not the only Very Bad Outcome, but it's the one Very Bad Outcome we can track readily.  It's beginning to look like it's heading back up.  And figure:  8.3 million cases, 220,000 deaths.  Over 2%.  So...70,000 new cases probably means 1400 more deaths.  (One of these days I still need to grab the raw data and compare total cases to total deaths 30 days later, and similar analyses.)

And it seems a practical certainty that politics will dominate the news for the next 3 weeks, so this surge may not garner that much attention.  No attention?  No corrective steps.  No corrective steps, case numbers gonna skyrocket.

 

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2 hours ago, Old Man said:

The pandemic just took out a long time FLCS here for good (economically).  Perhaps there will be a bailout for citizens and small businesses in January. 

 

Yeah, Bloomberg had a story earlier this week that local coffee houses aren't surviving...and the Evil Scum of the Water of Life, aka Starbucks, is getting further entrenched.  Have to figure that's gonna happen with book stores (if you even have a local book store) and restaurants.  It's already happened here, WRT package liquor...because the county has a set, VERY limited number of liquor licenses.  So, Wal Mart has 4;  Walgreens has 2 or 3;  Albertson's has 3;  Pic Quik (gas and quickie mart) has several.  That was separate;  the big stores just consistently offered too much for the small, local guys to say no.  There is *1* standalone, independent liquor store left.  So it's related:  the little guys don't have the resources to cope with the pressure.

 

When we pull out of this, it is very likely to be that much more corporate-dominated, altho several of those will be gone or greatly reduced too.  For the last 8-10 years, I'd say...the only really interesting local businesses have been the VERY good Mexican restaurants.  

I haven't been up to our local (pretty lousy) mall in a long time...I should go up there, just to see how many vacancies there are.  It's not like it's been terribly close to full up very much of the time in the last...decade.  

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About to go back to read for a while before crashing.
By the time I get up...the worldwide total number of cases will exceed....

 

40,000,000.

 

And the average number of new cases per day is about 350,000....so in about 4 weeks, it'll be 50,000,000, if the latest round of containment measures don't help.

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On 10/12/2020 at 6:29 PM, Matt the Bruins said:

Is it ridiculously pollyanna-ish that I'm somewhat reassured there have ONLY been 5 verified cases of reinfection worldwide since this thing started out of almost 38 million people infected? At least that seems to imply it's an unlikely enough occurrence that the virus isn't going to just inevitably chew up and spit out the whole population until we're all isolated or dead.

 

Perhaps the implication is that once infected, twice shy.

 

If even Chris Christie survives his first dance with 'Rona and learns his lesson and starts promoting mask wearing, maybe there's generally hope for long term survival. 

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ARGGHHH!!!!!!  The blind obstinacy of some people makes me SO BLOODY ANGRY....

 

So, the governor instituted some tighter restrictions;  New Mexico has had an *alarming* rise in new cases;  particularly in several counties.  (The UNM-CSU football game was scratched due to spread rates in Bernalillo County, where UNM is.)  So that got posted on the local neighborhood app.

 

One......person....posted this:

Quote

The Queen is sending her decree and the doors of the bastille are open!


ARGH!!!!!!!  Dona Ana County has about 200,000 people total...and has had almost 1100 new cases in the last 2 weeks.  If the demographics hold, we've had about 4900 total cases, and 63 deaths.  Figure that, for the most part, deaths don't occur within 2 weeks, so that's 63 deaths out of about 3800 cases, let's say...which means around 15-17 more people will die from this, just from infections in the last 2 weeks.

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7 hours ago, unclevlad said:

ARGGHHH!!!!!!  The blind obstinacy of some people makes me SO BLOODY ANGRY....

 

So, the governor instituted some tighter restrictions;  New Mexico has had an *alarming* rise in new cases;  particularly in several counties.  (The UNM-CSU football game was scratched due to spread rates in Bernalillo County, where UNM is.)  So that got posted on the local neighborhood app.

 

One......person....posted this:


ARGH!!!!!!!  Dona Ana County has about 200,000 people total...and has had almost 1100 new cases in the last 2 weeks.  If the demographics hold, we've had about 4900 total cases, and 63 deaths.  Figure that, for the most part, deaths don't occur within 2 weeks, so that's 63 deaths out of about 3800 cases, let's say...which means around 15-17 more people will die from this, just from infections in the last 2 weeks.

 

You're just thinking too sciencey about it all. 

 

Go online, find a picture you can use to make fun of the governor, and post it on your social media account. Then you'll fit in with all the other brainless people just fine.

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On 10/17/2020 at 12:47 AM, unclevlad said:

I haven't been up to our local (pretty lousy) mall in a long time...I should go up there, just to see how many vacancies there are.  It's not like it's been terribly close to full up very much of the time in the last...decade.  

 

I grew up not far from Maplewood Mall in good old Minnesota (ya sure you betcha).  In my childhood through young adult years, that was a thriving shopping mecca, with everything from video arcades to book stores (two!) to clothing shops, a rotating roster of kiosks, and a wonderful food court.  I can't even remember the last time I was in there...probably around the time Sears, a formerly invincible anchor store, closed its doors years ago.

 

To me, it seems like the pandemic is simply accelerating some trends that were already in motion.  Shopping malls have long been in decline (and even Mall of America is having serious financial trouble).  There's long been a general shift away from brick and mortar stores toward Amazon and similar online merchants.  Companies can build smaller office spaces because working remotely is increasingly possible.  Even conference rooms can be bypassed in favor of virtual meeting formats (there is no meeting, only Zoom).  Whatever the new normal turns out to be, I'm sure that the old normal is gone forever.

 

As for the human suffering, that is what I want to see end.  I've known several people who have caught Covid, but thankfully none who died.  However dire things get, I do try to find gratitude for things like this every day.  Keeping my eyes on the blessings in my life (and there still are many) keeps me sane.  Mostly.

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CDC expands definition of ‘close contacts,’ after study suggests Covid-19 can be passed in brief interactions

 

Previously, the CDC described a close contact as someone who spent 15 minutes or more within six feet of someone who was infectious. Now, the agency says it’s someone who spent a cumulative 15 minutes or more within six feet of someone who was infectious over 24 hours, even if the time isn’t consecutive, according to an agency spokesperson.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/21/cumulative-time-covid-19-spread/

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