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18 minutes ago, Cancer said:

So, supposedly we're being locked out at noon our time Friday.  Which will be hard for me, since I still have a final exam going at that moment.  Idiot panicking administrators not thinking through what should be going on.

 

Extra Credit to students who bring ways to break out?

 

"Glass Cutter.. good good"

 

"Jack Hammer.. nice."

 

"Ooo plastique, even better"

 

 

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Not sure if it's been posted yet or not, but the paper that's likely driving a lot of the time estimates: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2EzKndfMupd6kQ4mQ7sl9aTW9XQ7p_8tsgwDkeq664mosM5OCxZw_NU9g

 

TL;DR: The current social distancing/self-isolation/school closure is likely to continue for a minimum of 3 months. If relaxed after 3 months, there would be a resurgence of cases with ICU peak being exceeded in October and an estimated 1.1-1.2 million deaths in the US. In order to minimize the impact of corona, the full suite of  measures would need to remain in place for up to 18 months (until general availability of a vaccine).

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8 minutes ago, Simon said:

Not sure if it's been posted yet or not, but the paper that's likely driving a lot of the time estimates: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2EzKndfMupd6kQ4mQ7sl9aTW9XQ7p_8tsgwDkeq664mosM5OCxZw_NU9g

 

TL;DR: The current social distancing/self-isolation/school closure is likely to continue for a minimum of 3 months. If relaxed after 3 months, there would be a resurgence of cases with ICU peak being exceeded in October and an estimated 1.1-1.2 million deaths in the US. In order to minimize the impact of corona, the full suite of  measures would need to remain in place for up to 18 months (until general availability of a vaccine).

 

Good lord. 18 months

 

The mind boggles

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Looks like we're in for a long period of staying mostly at home, and being unable to purchase many things. Could be 3 months, 5 months, or much longer. 😬

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As you read toward the bottom of that article you'll note the various governments tracking everyone for "contact purposes," and Trump just suspended all HIPAA restrictions "for telepresence purposes." Being someone that works directly in the healthcare IT infrastructure, there was zero need to remove HIPAA for telepresence. I'm not a conspiracy person, but the removal of HIPAA sure smells a whole lot like given full capability of tracking people now in the USA.

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At some point during those 18 months many Americans will simply say "screw it, for 90% of the population it's just a bad flu at its worst".

 

People won't accept it, there will be rioting or worse.

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32 minutes ago, Starlord said:

At some point during those 18 months many Americans will simply say "screw it, for 90% of the population it's just a bad flu at its worst".

 

People won't accept it, there will be rioting or worse.

 

People will adapt to seriously changed circumstances, if they're given something constructive to do, like during a war. Now they're being asked to essentially do nothing. That will be a lot harder to take seriously in the long term.

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11 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

People will adapt to seriously changed circumstances, if they're given something constructive to do, like during a war. Now they're being asked to essentially do nothing. That will be a lot harder to take seriously in the long term.

 

But we're so good at doing nothing!

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Sorry if this is rambling....   still in a little bit of shock and things are kind of raw right now.

 

Saw this thread for the first time today.... after reading 3 pages, skipped to the end since it was 22 pages.  

 

Not even sure why I am writing this.   Today, my family  became one of the statistics.   My 75 year old mother-in-law died this afternoon due to complication from the coronavirus (respiratory failure).   She was very healthy for her age...  only on thyroid medication....  no heart, blood pressure, cholesterol, nor any other 'old person' maintenance drugs.  

 

She had a slight fever for a couple of days and did not feel well.  Went to the doctor on a Thursday, had a slight temp (~100) and a 98% oxygen level.   Doctor thought it may have been an infection from deviated septum surgery a couple of weeks before and gave her some antibiotics.  She went downhill fast over the weekend and went back to the doctor on Monday.  She almost passed out at the doctor's office since she only had around a 60% oxygen level.  Was taken to the ER by ambulance.  The ICU rooms in the hospital were full and they had to call around to other hospitals to find a room for her.  By Monday night, she was in critical condition and on a respirator.   That was a little over a week ago.  She was able to be put on an experimental drug study since she was so healthy and not on a lot of medication.  It may have slowed some things down, but did not seem to help.

 

Don't want to fan the flames or anything.   Amazon is back-ordered a bit, but get an oximeter for yourself and your extended families.  If exposed and not feeling well, it can at least give you another data point beside temperature and feeling like crap.

 

Not sure if/when I will come back to this thread.   Take care everyone and stay healthy

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Writing stuff, sharing it is valuable, a human thing to tell stories.

 

Sorry to hear about your mother in law, Norm, but I think we will all know someone who has fallen victim to this before it is over.  My son has a cough but I do no think it is coronavirus but we are self-isolating anyway.  Two weeks at home.  Fortunate that I can work from home, even more that I get paid regardless.

 

My wife, who is prone to get stir crazy, is now a bigger danger to me than anything else.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Norm said:

Sorry if this is rambling....   still in a little bit of shock and things are kind of raw right now.

 

Sorry for your loss, Norm.  Sounds like it was pretty sudden, that can't be easy.

 

I will take your advice about the oximeter immediately.  My own, admittedly cold, advice is to submit any insurance claims immediately before insurance providers get overwhelmed and declare bankruptcy.

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