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15 hours ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

Who here is already under a shelter-in-place order? And how are you coping if you are?

We went to shelter in place as a voluntary action some time ago as I live in a retirement home. So far it is just needing to adjust, and find alternate ways to do things.

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12 hours ago, Badger said:

A friend of mine mentioned at his workplace, they are taking people's temps before they go in for work.

 

Seems, by then it would be way, way too late.

 

That's why most of these preventative measure seems so silly to me.  People can by asymptomatic for 10 days while spreading COVID-19 everywhere.

 

Certainly taking temperatures - which they did at my kid's daycare before closing completely - is completely useless.

 

"Billy, it seems you have a temperature so you can't come inside today.  Now I just need to send home everyone who has interacted with you or anything you've touched or in any room you've coughed/sneezed in for the last 10 days..."

 

Decorative solutions will not help us.

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One phrase we hear a lot is "flatten the curve". That is the reason for these orders that are destroying so much: the  goal is not so much to prevent anyone from getting infected (that, while a desirable goal, borders on the quixotic in trying to make it happen) as to stretch out the infection rate so the limited supply of hospital beds (particularly ICU beds, which are in even more limited supply) is not overwhelmed. Already hospitals are worried that they will have to triage patients M*A*S*H-style and have to let some patients go untreated. For the physicians who have to do that it's a heartbreaking choice. The only way to prevent that is to slow down the rate of infection, and spread it out over time.

 

I have a caregiver scheduled to come in in half an hour. I don't know what will happen though. Oregon has issued an "advisory" in preparation for a shelter-in-place order that is now definitely coming. I don't know whether they will actually arrive, out of fear that it would be considered "non-essential" or worse. There are things that need to be done and kept up for my mental health, and that can't happen while I'm stuck alone inside for a month or longer.

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7 minutes ago, Hugh Neilson said:

Probably posted before, but this article was quite interesting:

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/

 

Great interview. This man has lived a fantastic life, giving much to the world. Apparently the government has spoken to him, but his advice does not seem to have been taken to heart in this administration.

 

Thing is, I'm not sure even shelter-in-place is going to work, though it may be the best we can do right now. People still have to go out for groceries, prescriptions, and the like. Everything else will have to be delivered -- which means delivery drivers who are at high risk, and grocery store workers who are at even higher risk. Yesterday everyone was horrified to hear that an unidentified worker at a supermarket in Northeast Portland tested positive a couple of weeks ago, leading to a panic in that part of town. More of those are coming -- it will happen. And I'm concerned that stores may now start closing, with severe consequences for people who need food (aka everybody).

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Damage Report!:

 

Italy continues to break new ground with their daily fatality and new case totals.  Yesterday they had more fatalities than China.  Today they have far more fatalities than China, 4825 vs. 3255.

 

The U.S. case trajectory has now exceeded Spain's at the 18 day mark, and is closing in on China's.  China had 60000 cases at the 25 day mark, and that was after welding people into their apartments.  The U.S. continues to undertest.

 

A mysterious surge of pneumonia patients has been reported in Russia, but the authoritarian leader there continues to downplay the situation and insists everything is under control.  I wonder how many times this is going to play out.

 

The FDA has approved the testing of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine as possible treatments for COVID-19.   A vaccine trial is underway in Seattle.  Better late than never, but thousands of Americans will die before either is generally available.

 

Social media continues to occasionally show me posts from people who are concerned that the lockdowns and social distancing measures are too much, and that they are needlessly damaging the economy.  They appear not to understand that exponential fatalities will wreck the economy just as much and would make recovery that much harder as well.  To say nothing of the morally indefensible argument that lives should be sacrificed for profits.

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17 minutes ago, Old Man said:

To say nothing of the morally indefensible argument that lives should be sacrificed for profits.

 

I hope nobody is making *that* argument.  I know I'm concerned about the measures, but more along the lines of, "How much economic damage can we endure before it's worse than the alternative?"

 

As an irrational extreme example:  If we self-quarantine until 300 million of us starve to death then that would be worse than letting the disease run its course.

 

Somewhere between that ridiculous extreme and doing nothing is an optimal point where we get the greatest reduction in death.

 

I have concerns - and many do - that in our frenzied rush to fight this illness that we'll end up doing as much or even more harm than doing nothing would have done.

 

Folks are not handling this in a rational calm manner.  Here's the canned goods aisle at my local grocery store.

 

 

 

 

PanicShopping.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Matt the Bruins said:

One of my co-workers is among those making such posts. From his farm. From which he's been able to work remotely the past three days thanks to our boss. :rolleyes:

 

I'm fortunate enough to be able to work from home as well.  At least your boss understands basic epidemiology, unlike your co-worker.

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48 minutes ago, Old Man said:

A mysterious surge of pneumonia patients has been reported in Russia, but the authoritarian leader there continues to downplay the situation and insists everything is under control.  I wonder how many times this is going to play out.

 

The FDA has approved the testing of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine as possible treatments for COVID-19.   A vaccine trial is underway in Seattle.  Better late than never, but thousands of Americans will die before either is generally available.

 

Whoa...time out.  Nothing personal, but "Trump says" and reality are often light-years apart.  I can't find ANYTHING supporting this testing approval, other than Trump claimed it during a press conference.  That 'declaration' was 2 days ago, and still no confirmation that I can find.

 

And I question the Russian numbers too...as well as the Chinese numbers now.  I can hope they're being honest with the case numbers dropping, but who knows for sure?  

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25 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

 

I hope nobody is making *that* argument.  I know I'm concerned about the measures, but more along the lines of, "How much economic damage can we endure before it's worse than the alternative?"

 

As an irrational extreme example:  If we self-quarantine until 300 million of us starve to death then that would be worse than letting the disease run its course.

 

Somewhere between that ridiculous extreme and doing nothing is an optimal point where we get the greatest reduction in death.

 

I have concerns - and many do - that in our frenzied rush to fight this illness that we'll end up doing as much or even more harm than doing nothing would have done.

 

Folks are not handling this in a rational calm manner.  Here's the canned goods aisle at my local grocery store.

 

 

 

 

PanicShopping.jpg

 

Hey, it is the bread aisle at my local Food Lion.

 

Actually, for the time being, with knowledge now, of days when trucks come in.  I pretty much go in when it is likely to be relatively fuller shelves.  ANd get 15-20 or 25 dollars worth of stuff here and there.  A terrible pain for an introvert.  But, it helps regulate the stock up without a real panic.  (Ignoring the fact that, without everyone else's panic I wouldn't have to)

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22 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

 

I hope nobody is making *that* argument.  I know I'm concerned about the measures, but more along the lines of, "How much economic damage can we endure before it's worse than the alternative?"

 

As an irrational extreme example:  If we self-quarantine until 300 million of us starve to death then that would be worse than letting the disease run its course.

 

Somewhere between that ridiculous extreme and doing nothing is an optimal point where we get the greatest reduction in death.

 

I have concerns - and many do - that in our frenzied rush to fight this illness that we'll end up doing as much or even more harm than doing nothing would have done.

 

Folks are not handling this in a rational calm manner.  Here's the canned goods aisle at my local grocery store.

 

 

Epidemiological modeling is fairly well known in general, and there's a fair amount of data WRT coronavirus now to set parameters for it.  Those models show infection rates of 75%+ within 3-4 months, should nothing be done, for MOST of the US.  Moderate measures still give high rates:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html


NY Times has a time-lapse chart of case numbers by day for the US on its web site main page right now;  it's worth watching.  Also, look at Italy...almost 800 deaths just yesterday alone, because they didn't do enough at the outset.  

I agree people are panicking and overreacting, but I still expect the supplies situation will improve reasonably quickly...the hoarders doing it out of fear will have what they need.  Those thinking to make a buck...well, I think they're gonna get burned.

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15 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

 

Whoa...time out.  Nothing personal, but "Trump says" and reality are often light-years apart.  I can't find ANYTHING supporting this testing approval, other than Trump claimed it during a press conference.  That 'declaration' was 2 days ago, and still no confirmation that I can find.

 

Yes, and Forbes is a right wing source.  That's why I included the link.  ;)

 

15 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

 

And I question the Russian numbers too...as well as the Chinese numbers now.  I can hope they're being honest with the case numbers dropping, but who knows for sure?  

 

The numbers China has reported all along are eerily similar to the ones we're seeing now in other infected countries.  You can never trust the CCP 100%, but so far their data has not been shown to be way off.

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Online domestic criticism of the Chinese government's initial handling of the virus outbreak surged to unprecedented levels. The government clamped down on it as much as they could, and lately state media has trumpeted their success in halting the spread of the outbreak. But it may be that trust in Xi Jinping's regime has suffered a long-term credibility hit among his people; and if Vladimir Putin is also attempting to cover up the extent of the virus in Russia, his reputation will suffer as well when the truth inevitably comes out. But both regimes are ruthless in maintaining the appearance of control and competence, so it remains to be seen if all that has any significant impact on public perception.

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I agree that the Chinese numbers probably were representative before, but now?  I truly hope so.  

 

The NY Times has had a very, very nice set of charts for case numbers and numbers of cases per day.  It may actually be that Putin's being honest...they had a short period of mild numbers of cases fairly early on, then nothing...then, tho, it's been rising:

 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-march-21-a69117

 

Note the trajectory the last 10 days or so....

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1 minute ago, Badger said:

North Korea is just a weird beast, that I resign to calling Hell on Earth.  I don't know what can be done for their people.

 

Mourn, and if you are so inclined, pray?

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2 hours ago, death tribble said:

I look on the bright side still. Ebola and others are far worse and scarier.

 

Ebola is terrifying because its mortality rate is very high.

 

However...as of today, about 13,000 people have died from the coronavirus.  11,300 died from ebola.

 

Diseases like ebola burn themselves out.  Diseases like the coronavirus and flu dig in and stick around...think of it like a herpes simplex infection.  You'll never get rid of it, it may not bother you much of the time, but then, every now and again, it'll flair up. 

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