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Coronavirus


Steve

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3 hours ago, BarretWallace said:

Ugh.  Some of my family plan to travel to LA for a concert next month.  Is it wrong if I quietly hope that the show is canceled?

 

It's possible things will have calmed down by then...South Africa's seen a rapid rolloff, so it's plausible...but there's no way I'd fly while both weather and Covid are shredding schedules.

 

I would also think long and hard before attending any large-scale gathering.  I might do it...if it was a bucket list event, that wasn't going to be repeated.  Generally?  Not a chance.  Not while omicron is rampaging around.

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1 hour ago, Cygnia said:

 

To date, COVID-19 has been documented in cats, dogs, mice, mink, deer, tigers, lions, ferrets, otters, various primates, deer, and of course bats.  There is some evidence that Omicron evolved in mice.  This many animal reservoirs means that the threat of new variants will remain everpresent until broad spectrum vaccines are developed.

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I haven’t found anything in the literature in this variant yet. I have a bit of a problem with the assumption that it would take weeks for a recombinant to appear, though. Recombination between two strains is a function of probability and the way Omicron spreads we are making a lot of dice rolls. Still, I haven’t seen anything in the literature either way. 

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1 hour ago, Cygnia said:

 

In case you're a tad cynical about the Daily Beast....this goes back a few months, but it's the same PoS:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/19/walmart-christopher-key-anti-vaccine/

 

So...I couldn't find any confirmation about Cygnia's story per se...just echoes...this certainly supplies plenty of general corroboration.

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2 hours ago, Cygnia said:

 

I have to wonder whether some of these people are just pranking the anti-vaxxers. 

 

"Hey, I got it!  Why don't we suggest they inject bleach!" 
"Ooo!  That's a good one.  But that could be kinda lethal.  I know, how about we see if we can get them to drink their own piss!"

"Yeah!  And next week, we can say that eating their own poop will work too!"

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It's so damn frustrating to me, with peoples' attitudes toward lockdowns and preventative measures.  I think of my dad, who lived through the Great Depression and World War II.  Heck, he managed to go to college at the end of the Depression, working at a spaghetti company to help pay his way while taking classes.  Then having to interrupt his studies to go fight in WWII.  When I think of all he had to go through... and I'm being asked to wear a mask, give people their space, and stay in my home.  If that's the worst I have to suffer, geez, I'll take it.  

 

To paraphrase something Robert Fulghum once wrote, people need to realize whether something is a lump in their throat, a lump in their potatoes, or a lump in their breast.

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I'm sure lockdown fatigue is very real.  And entirely understandable.  Over and above the feeling of privilege that's rather pervasive...as we've pointed out, we've completely lost the understanding of just how dangerous infectious diseases typically are.  This is the first time in the memory of probably 95% of us where an infectious disease caused a long-term problem.  Sure, there've been nasty situation...Legionnaire's, for example...but that was never broad.  Ebola was a horror story that happened somewhere else.  We have to go back, I think, to measles.  Because...guess what...in the US at least (and I suspect in most first world countries), vaccination is mandatory to go to school.  So...the risk and consequences of measles have been swept up, tossed into the trash, and taken out to the dumpster.

 

Shorthand?  Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

 

Fair bit of discussion this afternoon on NPR.  Earlier versions of Covid have been targeting the lower respiratory area, which means serious complications/ventilation requirements are notably higher.  Omicron stays up higher, so it's a lot less likely you'll hit the hospital...but it spreads a lot easier.  (This might also explain why it bypasses the existing vaccine relatively readily.  Different enough structure is suggested by the fact that it prefers a different part of the body.)

 

But that means you've got a push and a pull effect...very much higher case rates, lower severity.  And unfortunately, based on the numbers...the case rates are more important.  The hospitals are more strained than ever.  GOOD news here:  hospitalizations are shorter.

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I tell my students every term, as someone who had measles (and mumps, and rubella, and chicken pox) before there were vaccines against any of those, what the disease does.  It is the horror of the disease that impels the vaccine to be developed, for people to want it.

 

And among my early memories is standing in a line most of the way around the block to get vaccinated against polio, and my feelings about are posted in a different thread here.

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Hoo boy....

 

We crossed the 300 million case number a while ago...and at this point, we can barely see it in the rear view mirror.

According to WorldOMeters...over 18 million new cases worldwide *in the last week*.  

Yeah...highest we got before was a tick over 900,000 new cases a day.  Right now it's pushing 3 million.

 

I never got measles.  I vaguely remember getting the vaccine tho, as a kid.  I did get mumps...hadda be around 5 or 6, I'm pretty sure, because I remember which house we were in.  There was just NO QUESTION, tho, back then...we stayed home, we isolated.  End of story.  

 

If you want a reminder...Ancestry.com used to offer a trial period, or even pay for it for a bit.  Chase down your family tree.  When you're getting back into the 18th and 19th centuries...start looking at how many of the kids never made it to their teens.  It can be quite the eye-opener.  Or look at things like life expectancy estimates back then.  Most of em exclude deaths under the age of 2, in that even today, the risks are higher in that period, and they'd skew the data badly.  The biggest changes in life expectancy come when the childhood diseases stop being a massive threat, I believe.  You can also search cause of death statistics.

 

Unfortunately, the anti-science, anti-vax crowd won't care.  

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