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1 hour ago, Old Man said:

 

Yeah, nanotechnology will be far more lethal than any random string of RNA.

 

;)

 

prevent.gray.goo.jpg

 

"Malware" and "trojan" updates will take on a whole new meaning once everyone is protected by nanomachines. I do look forward to it, though, in all seriousness.

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On 3/18/2020 at 1:17 PM, Starlord said:

At some point during those 18 months many Americans will simply say "screw it, for 90% of the population it's just a bad flu at its worst".

 

People won't accept it, there will be rioting or worse.

 

If so, that is whack. Our species needs to radically improve our ability to adapt posthaste if we can't handle a little pressure.

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On 3/26/2020 at 2:15 PM, Old Man said:

 

If we use China as a lower limit for fatality rate, there are 2100 Americans right now who are already dead and just don't know it yet.

 

It's like a grimmer Fist of the North Star.

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3 minutes ago, Bazza said:

It Australia we have been told 1.5 metres. 6 feet would be 2m. 

 

How is Australia handling the virus compared to other nations, by the way? I wish I resided in some obscure nook in either your country or New Zealand.

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3 hours ago, Bazza said:

It Australia we have been told 1.5 metres. 6 feet would be 2m. 

 

My brain immediately converted these into Traveller Snapshot squares and Hero inches, respectively. I'd normally say that I have to get out more, but with shelter in place....

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On the hopeful side of the spectrum the Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine trials with Azithromycin continue to kick out walloping good results.

 

Clinical course (Table 3) The majority (65/80, 81.3%) of patients had favourable outcome and were discharged from our unit at the time of writing with low NEWS scores (61/65, 93.8%).

Only 15% required oxygen therapy.

Three patients were transferred to the ICU, of whom two improved and were then returned to the ID ward.

One 74 year-old patient was still in ICU at the time of writing.

Finally, one 86 year-old patient who was not transferred to the ICU, died in the ID ward (Supplementary Table 1).

 

Full jargon rich article here: https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf

 

They might be shaving 80% or more off the expected mortality rate with these meds.

 

Additionally, they are cycling patients through intensive care much faster on the medication.  If I read this correctly most patients were rotated through in 5 days instead of multiple weeks.

Edited by ScottishFox
missed an important point

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8 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

Yeah, nanotechnology will be far more lethal than any random string of RNA.

 

;)

Skynet, hello. IoT is already being hacked daily. The thought of someone gaining access to essentially my life isn't too compelling. Hopefully, they work off AI rather than any external input.

 

That said, the new organic nanobots, look really promising, but they are by nature not as "intelligent", yet.

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So I ran through the John Hopkin's Interactive COVID Map and the only country I could find that has a fully flattened case line is:  China.

 

All other countries are showing a continuing rise in case count.  Many, like the USA, are on an exponential upswing.  China - only - is flat.

 

Believability:  0

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On 3/17/2020 at 9:36 PM, Duke Bushido said:

 

 

That's pretty much how it goes in the south, too-- at least, outside the Yankified zones such as Atlanta, Savannah, and other large concentrations of carpetbaggers.

 

"Oh!  I hate it up here!  Look how wonderful it is in the south!  let's leave the north / west coast and head south!"

 

Then as soon as they get here:  "Quick!  We have to recreate everything we hated so much that we ran away from it!"

 

 

ugh.

 

 

Hey! Quit picking on us Savannhins. Generally we’re so drunk we miss anyway. 😀

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10 hours ago, Ragitsu said:

Once nanotechnology is perfected, it will be "game over" for the vast majority of these microorganisms.

 

We used to say that about antibiotics, too. Nature finds a way. Micro-organisms adapt 'way faster than we do, and there's a helluva lot more of them than us.

 

IMO our civilization must get over the habit of looking to technology to provide a quick, easy fix. This pandemic, climate change, plastic mega-"blobs" in the ocean, have shown us we need to rethink our whole way of living.

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Italy now has over 10000 deaths, but Spain is hot on their heels at 5800.  Neither's death rate shows any sign of slowing anytime soon.

 

The U.S. is now putting up twice as many new cases per day as any other country.  With its commanding lead in case count, is a corresponding lead in deaths inevitable?

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19 minutes ago, Old Man said:

With its commanding lead in case count, is a corresponding lead in deaths inevitable?

Depends. Probably, if the pace of exponential growth continues unchecked by mitigation efforts. Lots of factors at play from age of population to level of surge impact on health care resources. Too soon to be certain. 

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14 hours ago, Badger said:

well, yeah, the bubonic plague killed off like what 40-50 % (more?) of the population of the areas they swept through.

 

Where in America, the number of confirmed corona cases still only amount to maybe  1 in 3500 people or something, and only 2% or so will die.

 

Though, I guess on a worldwide basis, I have said we have been spoiled since the Spanish Flu.  At least I cant think of any.  Bird flu,  SARs and what not never really got going the way this has.  Asian flu and some others have come and gone, and left people sick, but they weren't prolific killers, I don't seem to remember.

 

So, in some ways probably some panic is because we really haven't actually seen the way a deadly pandemic operates in real time (any living from the Spanish Flu days being obviously too young to remember at this point)

 

Keep in mind that that the confirmed corona cases lags behind the actual cases.  It takes a week to show symptoms, but you are still infectious for at least some of that week.  It takes up to another week to get symptoms that will land you in a hospital and get testing, and then get the results of that testing.  So right now it's 1 in 3500 people as of two weeks ago at best, because that is confirmed only.  At a rate of doubling every 5 days or so...

 

It's not that the panic is overblown, and isn't overblown.  You aren't going to die from it.  But even at this very moment, the 'rate of doubling' rule above means that we are roughly close to 0.15% who've probably got it right now, and will themselves be spreading it within a week.  I did just share a video explaining this modeling.

 

2% isn't a lot, until it's 2% of 3 million or so.

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8 hours ago, Ragitsu said:

 

If so, that is whack. Our species needs to radically improve our ability to adapt posthaste if we can't handle a little pressure.

 

Well, if this last 18 months, I'll be consumed from job stress.   So, corona might be a blessing at that point.   

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On 3/26/2020 at 10:13 PM, unclevlad said:

Op-Ed in NYTimes this evening discusses Europe's reaction to the economic downturn...pay companies to keep workers on the payroll...versus the US response of cutting the job and paying unemployment.  The former does feel much more likely to lead to a faster turnaround, as the corporate knowledge loss won't be nearly as high, and there won't be as much low productivity due to needing to train replacements.  Yeah, sure, many will go back to their old jobs, but not all sectors will recover in the same timeline, so many will change jobs.

 

I'm not sure where Canada is on this.  Parliament convened Tuesday and, after all-night negotiating, passes a 10% of wages; $1,375 per employee and $25,000 per employer maximum" wage subsidy.  Yesterday, the Gov't announced a completely undetailed program which will cover "up to 75%" of wages provided the employer maintains all staff and was significantly affected by COVID-19.

 

No easy answers.  And remember that, whether they call it a benefit or a loan, it has to be paid for somehow.  Practically, the need to repay tomorrow seems preferable to there being no "tomorrow".

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1 hour ago, Iuz the Evil said:

Depends. Probably, if the pace of exponential growth continues unchecked by mitigation efforts. Lots of factors at play from age of population to level of surge impact on health care resources. Too soon to be certain. 

 

Population statistics and, I think perhaps age stratification.  When I think of Spain and Italy, I think you've got much higher rates of older parents living with younger family members...who are mobile and who bring the virus in.  At which point, the older generation becomes more likely to get it...and they're far more likely to die from it.
 

The surge problem can be seen.  Louisiana.  3300+ cases now and 137 deaths...so that's 4%.  Washington state:  3800 cases, 177 deaths.  Similar.  These are the 2 outbreaks in the US that struck FAST and HARD and without much warning.  Some of this is also, perhaps, age stratification...if it gets into a senior-care facility, or worse a nursing home where pre-existing conditions are the nrom...there's huge mortality spikes.

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3 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

 

We used to say that about antibiotics, too. Nature finds a way. Micro-organisms adapt 'way faster than we do, and there's a helluva lot more of them than us.

 

IMO our civilization must get over the habit of looking to technology to provide a quick, easy fix. This pandemic, climate change, plastic mega-"blobs" in the ocean, have shown us we need to rethink our whole way of living.

 

Antibiotics are chemical, however; they are imprecise (not to mention slow) compared to a solution that can be modified and upgraded on the fly. That said, I do agree that we need to fundamentally restructure certain aspects of our standards of living.

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2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

Population statistics and, I think perhaps age stratification.  When I think of Spain and Italy, I think you've got much higher rates of older parents living with younger family members...who are mobile and who bring the virus in.  At which point, the older generation becomes more likely to get it...and they're far more likely to die from it.
 

The surge problem can be seen.  Louisiana.  3300+ cases now and 137 deaths...so that's 4%.  Washington state:  3800 cases, 177 deaths.  Similar.  These are the 2 outbreaks in the US that struck FAST and HARD and without much warning.  Some of this is also, perhaps, age stratification...if it gets into a senior-care facility, or worse a nursing home where pre-existing conditions are the nrom...there's huge mortality spikes.

Exactly. Epidemiological modeling shows a lot of variability depending on the population and resource factors at play. We will know more in a couple weeks. 

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