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1 hour ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

Nobody is allowed in her building except residents -- everyone is a senior citizen and the entire complex is effectively under quarantine.

 

Believe me, if I knew anyone in her building I could call I'd call them. The building management may be able to check on her in the morning.

 

Hopefully it's just a problem with her phone, but it's hard not to fear the worst at a time like this. Too many people are leaving this life alone these days.

 

Shoot. That is hard.  Were I the praying type I would pray for you and your mom.  As is I have my fingers crossed for both of you, and am hoping that it is just a technical difficulty.

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1 April 3:00 GMT — Nearly 80% of US intensive-care cases have underlying conditions

 

More than three-quarters of COVID-19 patients in intensive-care units in the United States have at least one ‘underlying condition’, a chronic health problem such as diabetes or heart disease that has been shown to contribute to hospitalization and severe outcomes.

 

The finding comes from the 31 March Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It found that of about 7,000 people with COVID-19 for whom information about chronic conditions had been reported, just over a third had an underlying condition. People with such conditions made up 71% of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 and nearly 80% of those who required intensive care.

 

Data from China and Italy have also shown that underlying conditions correlate with more severe COVID-19 outcomes, but this is the first such study of patients in the United States. The United States has the highest number of confirmed cases of any country as of last week

 

Copy-pasted from Nature's COVID-19 news stream.

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~ 76,000 new cases yesterday.  Total number, ~ 936,000.

~ 4900 new deaths yesterday.  Total number, ~ 47,000.

 

Do the math......oh.

 

Double whammy day.  Break 1M cases and 50K deaths.

 

Michael:  I know that anguish.  I hope it's nothing serious.

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Was meaning to look that up. Heard from social media that it shows a Chinese doctor & whistleblower trying to get the truth out. 

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6 hours ago, Ranxerox said:

 

Shoot. That is hard.  Were I the praying type I would pray for you and your mom.  As is I have my fingers crossed for both of you, and am hoping that it is just a technical difficulty.

Well, she;s safe. She called in just before I went to bed, very upset that I was making a fuss.

 

Which was a relief but which also hurt a bit.

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9 hours ago, RPMiller said:

But what is your nozzle made from, what about your bed? It's easy to dismiss the particular filament, but you still have to consider all the chemical changes throughout the printing process, not to mention the sterilization of the process as well. Some hospitals won't accept any DIY components for the simple lack of sterilization used in the manufacturing process. But as I said, desperation can sometimes remove those barriers from consideration. I'm mentioning this not just for you, but for others that might read this and want to help their local hospitals, which I 100% recommend. Providers are literally giving their lives to save covid patients, so everyone's help is appreciated, but also consider the possible burden everyone may put on them if you don't go through proper channels and procedures.

That said, Dan, I hope you can really help relieve some of the burden, they need it. 

Jeebus - negative much?

1. The Hospital is enthusiastic about receiving the masks and shields.  We're going to talk about the multiplexing tubes for the ventilators to ensure that they will work with their setup, but to say that there's interest is an understatement.

2. The nozzle is brass, surgical steel (non-ferromagnetic), silicon, and either ruby or sapphire (depending on size).  The bed is glass.

 

3. DO NOT FUCKING TRY TO DISSUADE PEOPLE FROM HELPING, YOU UNBELIEVABLE ASSHOLE. NO ONE is talking about just showing up at a hospital and dropping a truckload of supplies in the ER.  Of course proper channels are followed - it's the only way to arrange delivery to the proper location.

4. For those that may be interested (and who either have a 3d printer or the means to get one), there are several groups that are coordinating efforts with hospitals and first responders, helping to ensure that masks and shields get to where they're needed the most (some on a global scale, others focusing on the US) - PM me if you need help hooking up with one.

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Found out an elderly woman in our neighborhood passed away last week (don't know if it was from the virus admittedly).   When the weather was nicer, we'd always see her gardening on our walks and we'd chat with her.

 

She had a beautiful garden :(

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OK, I am looking for the skeptics and those with expertise to refute my hypothesis.

 

I am now looking at Worldometer with the theory that the extent of testing in a country can be gauged by the ratio of critical cases to active cases.  The greater the ratio, the less the testing.

 

REASONING:  The less testing, the more it is limited to the worst cases.  They are getting tested.  The milder cases are not.

 

EVIDENCE:  My understanding is that the three countries with the highest testing are the UAE (745 active cases; 2 critical), South Korea (3,979 active cases; 55 critical) and Canada (7,866 active cases; 120 critical - less certain this is #3 in testing as the intel came from sources in our gov't, so objectivity is lower).

 

World is 703,547 active cases; 36,205 critical, so just over 5% critical.  The big testers are 1.3 - 1.5% (I'm calling UAE an outlier because their numbers are smaller, so more likely to skew from a statistical norm).  My recollection is the fatality rate is about 2%.  The big testers are probably lower, sadly, because active cases last to the earlier of full recovery or death, and critical cases are the most likely to end early.

 

US is 13% critical.  Italy is 5%.  Spain is 8.3%.UK, oddly, is 0.55%.  That contrasts with almost 8% deaths as a proportion to total cases.

 

THOUGHTS?

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Spain and Italy sound bad according to the sources I have seen. We don't tend to hear about France, Belgium, Holland and Germany or the Scandinavian countries..

The mass queues at the supermarkets have gone, you can actually buy toilet paper.

It is quiet without restaurants and pubs closed.

The Prince of Wales has finished his isolation but Boris is still isolated.

We are still under 3,000 deaths.

According to the Worldometer both Spain and Italy have had 10,000 deaths and over 10,000 recoveries in Italy but over 25,000 in Spain.

I view that as encouraging.

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1 hour ago, Hugh Neilson said:

OK, I am looking for the skeptics and those with expertise to refute my hypothesis.

 

I am now looking at Worldometer with the theory that the extent of testing in a country can be gauged by the ratio of critical cases to active cases.  The greater the ratio, the less the testing.

 

REASONING:  The less testing, the more it is limited to the worst cases.  They are getting tested.  The milder cases are not.

 

EVIDENCE:  My understanding is that the three countries with the highest testing are the UAE (745 active cases; 2 critical), South Korea (3,979 active cases; 55 critical) and Canada (7,866 active cases; 120 critical - less certain this is #3 in testing as the intel came from sources in our gov't, so objectivity is lower).

 

World is 703,547 active cases; 36,205 critical, so just over 5% critical.  The big testers are 1.3 - 1.5% (I'm calling UAE an outlier because their numbers are smaller, so more likely to skew from a statistical norm).  My recollection is the fatality rate is about 2%.  The big testers are probably lower, sadly, because active cases last to the earlier of full recovery or death, and critical cases are the most likely to end early.

 

US is 13% critical.  Italy is 5%.  Spain is 8.3%.UK, oddly, is 0.55%.  That contrasts with almost 8% deaths as a proportion to total cases.

 

THOUGHTS?

 

I think you're on to something.  Germany has a VERY low mortality rate.  It's jumped a little recently, but it was at 0.54% earlier and that was due to their testing of a lot of people (not just the ones needing critical care).

 

While a reasonably small sample size I think the Diamond Princess gave us a reasonable number to expect.  Mortality rate 1.5% among a moderately old, but healthy enough to travel group.

 

I speculate that the countries with the abnormally high mortality rates are either not testing enough people to give accurate numbers, are over-whelmed preventing top-tier care for their critically ill, or both.

 

Otherwise you can't easily explain countries having mortality rates north of 10% while others have mortality rates in the 1-2% range.

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On a crazier note.

 

My step-daughter calls yesterday and asks if she has Coronoavirus because she has a bad sore throat.  It's seasonal allergy time so its hard to say.  Beyond the obvious ask your doctor advice I point out that if you don't have a fever it's probably just allergies.  Probably.

 

Then she asks if she can come over and visit my immuno-compromised wife and I.

 

????!!!

 

!@#$ no you can't come over and visit after asking that.  Shelter-in-place can only slow this disease down.  The stupid cannot be contained.

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