Future Wars

[Asperion]

Recently I got talking about wars of the past (especially WWII). We also mentioned what WWIII might be like. At first I thought that such a war would be highly electronic-based, but still fought between different governments.  However, thinking further about this I was wondering about everything. What is everyone's take when dealing with this next war? Who will be involved? What will the weapons involved be? Anything else that anyone would like to mention?

[Scott Ruggels]

Two options that I see.  a growing quagmire in Libya in the near to near medium term that will draw Europe and Russia into it, with the U.S. staying out.  Medium to far term. U.S. vs. China.

The Libya conflict will be an extension of the current civil war there as the two sides gain "sponsorship" from their largers. IT would be a place to combat test systems  that are now theoretical, under battlefield conditions with spotty training.  The Conflict  might escalate, but probably only deeper into Africa, rather than spreading across the Mediterranean. 

 

A US War with china would depend on the time frame, from a few months to decades, but depending if China tries a sea borne invasion of Taiwan, and tanks rolling into Hong Kong, or if China bides it's time and drops orbital weapons on us. 

[Greywind]

WWIII will be Disney trying to take over all the entertainment industries.

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, Greywind said:

WWIII will be Disney trying to take over all the entertainment industries.

That war is already over and we lost. 

[Bazza]

There will be no WWIV. If there is, humanity lost again for the third time and those who engineer these world wars for global control will have won.

 

WWIII has been a war against Africa & the 3rd World by the same money cartel. 

[Old Man]

To qualify as a World War, a conflict must involve most or all of the principal nations of the world.  What constitutes a "principal" nation is fuzzy, but would surely include China, the U.S., Germany, France, and Japan, and possibly Russia, Italy, and the UK.  As such it's kind of hard to imagine a scenario that would precipitate such a conflict.  Perhaps the Turkey-Syria war, which already involves Russia and the U.S., could also draw in NATO and, somehow, the Chinese.

 

I would expect a WWIII fought with conventional forces to be effectively over in a matter of days, followed by a protracted stalemate period.  The reality is that an aggressor can only go so far without provoking a nuclear counterstrike and defeating the purpose of the aggression.

[Grailknight]

I only see 3 possible areas of conflict that would start a World War. Israel vs the Arab world. India vs Pakistan and Ukraine vs Russia if Putin gets too overconfident of US response and is proved wrong. China vs Hong Kong/Taiwan would be over too quickly for anyone to mobilize.

[Badger]

That and I don't really see the world at large caring much if Hong Kong/Taiwan* fell.  (other than the U.S. and I don't see us even pressing the issue without backup)

 

 

*seeing as how even the UN want recognize them as a country.

[Sundog]

I seriously doubt China and the USA will go to war. Each has simply too much to lose and too little to gain, and neither views the other as a true enemy, more a rival. Rivals have proxy wars and border conflicts, and while those can get out of hand, I seriously doubt either one would bet it all on a roll of the dice.

 

If anything I'd expect it to be Russia and some type of anti-Russian alliance. Russia is still expansionist, and has a habit of biting off more then it can handle. If NATO gets involved, that could include the USA.

 

Electronics wise, everyone is largely on the same level at the moment. Cyberattacks will be a thing, but similar capabilities would result in largely both sides' capacities cancelling each other out.

[massey]

World War III is on hold until further notice.  The United States is too much of an overwhelming favorite in state vs state action for anybody to risk a conventional war with us.  Remember the end of Infinity War when Thor showed up with his axe?  Now imagine that Thanos himself never appears and it's just Thor blasting the crap out of the monster army.  Other nations will try to create countermeasures against some of the US' weapons, but nobody wants to be the one to test them and see if they work.  As long as the US is outspending the rest of the world combined (or nearly so), a worldwide conventional war isn't happening.

 

As far as nuclear attack goes, the major nuclear powers are all willing to respect one another's right to exist, for the most part.  India and Pakistan might nuke each other, if Iran gets a nuke they might hit Israel (who would attack back), and North Korea could always do something really stupid.  But nobody else is willing to get incinerated over these countries.  If tomorrow morning, the US launched ICBMs at North Korea, and said "our intelligence reports stated that NK had a missile on the launch pad, and it had a nuke on it", there would be protests.  People would be mad.  China would scream and yell.  But nobody would launch back.  They'd just say "well, it sucks to be North Korea" and that would be that.

 

For WWIII to start, you either need a brand new weapon that makes the US conventional forces useless (which nobody is spending the money needed to develop), or you need the US to return to isolationism and cut the military budget by half or more.  I don't see either happening within the next several decades.

[Badger]

Yeah, Iran would be my biggest worry on that.  I find the rest of the world is pretty much willfully ignorant on the mentalities of some of the leaders in that area of the world.

 

 

[Asperion]

The main possible method that I can foresee when dealing with any upcoming war, it will not be the traditional state v state that we saw in the past. Instead, there will only be one type of company that exists in the world. This corporation will be so large and powerful that no current term exists for them yet. I will call them ubercorporations. The smallest of these will be many times larger than anything that currently exist today. They will literary replace the existing social structure that we have today and their weaponry will not be physical but market driven. Since they will literally be the government, anything they say will carry the power of law, no challenge, unless the challenger is another ubercorp. There is no business of any other size or type allowed. People will either work for the corp or not at all, no other choice allowed.

[massey]

I think you're looking for the Shadowrun forums.

[BNakagawa]

it's already started. The rise of populism is a by product of a coordinated assault on democracies around the world.

[Bazza]

The assault on democracy is over 100 years old, hardly recent. Nor is it attribute to recent popularist movements. It is entrenched*. 

 

*Revealed – the capitalist network that runs the world

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354.500-revealed--the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world.html

[Badger]

The thing though with capitalism for me is it is like that saying about democracy "It is the worst system except for all the others.".   I may or may not be for varying tweaks to that system (a complicated, and lengthy discussion probably that I'd probably want to participate on the internet in never).  But, a lot of the cries for change I do feel is the realm "cure is worse than the disease" territory.

 

Note: It also occurs to me, I probably look less favorably on the French Revolution than many here.  (not on the sentiment though, mind you)

 

 

[Sundog]

The French Revolution happened for the same reason as the October Revolution in Russia - the populace had actually reached the point of "anything else would be better than what we have now." Whether what they got actually was better than the Ancien Regime is a matter of opinion, but once the general populace reaches that point, nothing can save the current government or system. It's destruction is now inevitable, and everything associated with it - good as well as bad - will be expunged.

 

We are not there. We have not reached that point - but frighteningly, you can see it from here. Without real reform in the United States, we have actually reached the point where in twenty years there might not BE a United States. 

 

It took a lot of effort and eventually basically the whole of Europe to beat Imperial France. I do not want to think what it would take to stop Imperial America.

[massey]

I doubt we are anywhere near that point.  Once I stopped watching cable "news" shows and searching for conflict online, most people I deal with are just going on happy with their lives.  They aren't anywhere near the "hang the bastards" level of angry.  I mean, they might say it sometimes, but nobody is actually trying to do it.

 

From a cynical perspective, 90% of the rest of the world has already agreed to go along with Imperial America.  Wherever you are, we probably have troops in your country right now.  We didn't have to invade, you invited us in. 

 

Generally it's been beneficial for everybody to be on the same team.  It's like the JLA, and we get to be Superman.  And Batman.

[Badger]

Yeah, been my experience. Fortunately, or unfortunately, at the moment of truth, most will be too chicken.  That may or may not be in perpetuity, but this generation is highly unlikely to be the one.

 

Note: ANd for the French Revolution, a gripe I have is once the king was executed (maybe before, but it is close enough to a specific point).  The whole place jumped no hold barred gleefully into madness.   

[Asperion]

At present, most people don't realize exactly what is happening both politically and within and out of corporate society to think about what is actually happening on both sides of the U.S. border. While there are a lot of microcorps being created every year, most of all of them combined have less power than one mid sized corp. And I have not gotten anywhere close to the megacorp level that most people think of.  🙇. One megacorp could eat all those microcorps without even trying. The only thing that is currently stopping this is they are giving credence to federal laws. It is only a matter of time before one decides for some reason that they are the law. When that happens, it will be a surprise to most people (even their own shareholders). Since the corp will now be in a position that no other force can deal with them (civil, government, or corporate), the only option will be to take their dictatorship until another corp arises that has the ability to deal with them on their terms. I would like to say this would be the start of a true global society, but they will only enforce the areas that they are doing business in and leave out everyone else. It will truly be a hackneyed "country" that has locations in random places, overriding all else.

[Cancer]

I suspect that the various powers are content to try sowing internal dissent in the others.  Those states with leaders who got where they are by brinksmanship are at a distinct disadvantage, since such people are incapable of building consensus and reaching out to those they don't have under their thumb.