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2020-2021 NFL Thread


Starlord

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2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Word on Dak:  compound fracture and dislocation.  Surgery is to clean things up, to speed up the healing, but his return this year is about as likely as an NFC East team getting a wild card spot.

 

It took a year for my nine-year-old to get over one of those.  And nine-year-olds are made of rubber and have mutant healing factor.

 

I drafted Dak for my fantasy team so I take full responsibility.

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I concede kids heal faster...but their bones are also still growing, so I suspect that makes ankle and wrist recovery...trickier.  But compound fractures are never trivial.

'twill be interesting to see if this impacts negociations.

 

Well, the second shoe has now fallen.  Can't say "the other shoe" because there will probably be more.
Dan Quinn and the Falcons GM tossed out like that half pot of coffee no one finished Friday afternoon.

 

Have to think there's still a few sitting very uncomfortably.

Bit of trivia...this from ESPN's scoreboard feed...

Tristan H. CockcroftESPN Senior Writer 

Most fantasy points by a quarterback in his team's first five games of a season (since 1950):

155.9 Peyton Manning, 2013

152.8 Daunte Culpepper, 2004

147.4 Russell Wilson, 2020

143.6 Steve Young, 1998

138.0 Aaron Rodgers, 2011

137.9 Patrick Mahomes, 2020

135.6 Dak Prescott, 2020

131.3 Donovan McNabb, 2002

131.1 Patrick Mahomes, 2018

129.6 Kyler Murray, 2020

 

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6 hours ago, Cygnia said:

...Browns won?

 

Yeah, the season is SO getting cancelled...

It has been shocking. I am not a Browns fan, but they really did build their team the "right" way. With the Line (both O and D) then run, then do play action. Everything else can build off of that. The Browns are so far, a good team.😵

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- That Dak injury was gruesome...well done, Old Man.  Y'know, it's bad when they start pixel-blurring the injured area.

 

- I actually think the Cowboys O won't lose much.  Having watched the Red Rifle closely in the 'Nati for 8 years, Andy Dalton is a pretty good QB when he has a halfway decent O line.

 

- Nice to see Alex Smith get out there and play after almost losing his leg and possibly dying.  Unfortunately, he got hammered most of the time he was out there.

 

- Bengals went back to being the Bengals.

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- Joe Burrow has been pressured more than anyone else in the league

- Joe Burrow has been hit more than anyone else in the league

- Joe Burrow has been sacked more than anyone else in the league and is on pace for 70.  The record is 78 for the unfortunate David "Ground Beef" Carr

 

A cancelled season might not be such a bad thing after all....

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20 minutes ago, Starlord said:

- Joe Burrow has been pressured more than anyone else in the league

- Joe Burrow has been hit more than anyone else in the league

- Joe Burrow has been sacked more than anyone else in the league and is on pace for 70.  The record is 78 for the unfortunate David "Ground Beef" Carr

 

A cancelled season might not be such a bad thing after all....

 

No kidding, David Carr was mentally destroyed as a quarterback by about two seasons of that treatment.

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Anyone else wrung out after last night, or is it that plus covid, plus teenage daughter, plus remote school, plus economic worries, plus who knows what all else the writers of GoT season 8 who seem to be writing 2020 have left in store for us? Can’t even get excited for MNF. 

 

(During-game comment by a Seahawks fan during tonight's game.  The comment about GoT writers and 2020 seems eerily insightful.)

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With the Chargers ultimately not being able to hold on, there are 10 teams at 1-3-1 or worse after 5 games, and I'm not counting the Broncos or Lions who only have 4 games played.  9 of em are already in desperation mode;  they're hanging on by one hand, at most.  Eagles could win the division at 6-9-1, so I give them a shot.  Washington is floundering, the Giants are abysmal;  even in that division, they're toast.

 

But man...that's a lot of severe ineptitude.  Not all of it, maybe;  Chargers are way better than the Jets or Giants, but don't know how to win yet.  But with KC and the Raiders, who look a lot better than last year?  Desperation isn't far off.  1-4 is still 1-4, and that's a lot of ground to make up.

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4 hours ago, unclevlad said:

With the Chargers ultimately not being able to hold on, there are 10 teams at 1-3-1 or worse after 5 games, and I'm not counting the Broncos or Lions who only have 4 games played.  9 of em are already in desperation mode;  they're hanging on by one hand, at most.  Eagles could win the division at 6-9-1, so I give them a shot.  Washington is floundering, the Giants are abysmal;  even in that division, they're toast.

 

But man...that's a lot of severe ineptitude.  Not all of it, maybe;  Chargers are way better than the Jets or Giants, but don't know how to win yet.  But with KC and the Raiders, who look a lot better than last year?  Desperation isn't far off.  1-4 is still 1-4, and that's a lot of ground to make up.

 

The Chargers weren't going to be competitive this year when their plan revolved around Tyrod (even though I think Tyrod is underrated).  They have reason to be optimistic the way Herbert is playing, though.  And even this season, their next five games are a lot more winnable--Jags, Broncos, Raiderps, Fins, Jets.  I mean, how can anyone lose to the Broncos?

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2 hours ago, Badger said:

So first Nfc east team to 6 wins takes the division

 

Mmmmm....probably.  But Eagles' 6-9-1 might beat out a 6-10 Cowboys.  But it's close, if only because the Eagles and Cowboys still have 3 games against the Giants and Washington...altho Philly has already lost theirs...and 2 games against each other.  Say each goes 4-1...they win the games against the bottom feeders and split against each other...that's 5 wins for the Eagles, 6 for the 'boys.  'boys have Bengals and a very depleted Niners.  Of course, saying they'll both go 4-1 is a reach on its own.

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All it takes is a mediocre team playing badly...or a matchup against one of the other bottom feeders.  So I wouldn't want to place a bet on "first to 6."  I would probably be willing to bet on first to 7.

 

Oh, and on the NFL Least....

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfc-east-is-historically-bad-how-much-worse-can-it-get/

 

Man, this is a week of UGLY!!! games.  It's a Triple Ti-D-Bowl week, which of course means it's a major week for draft positioning!  WFT vs Giants, Falcons vs. Vikes...each matchup is a combined 1-9.  The trifecta is completed by the Lions and Jags...2-7 combined.  And in the "oh good gosh it's gonna be a slaughter" we have the Titans hosting the Texans, and the Ravens heading into Philly.

Oh lordy...CBS has to be crowing, and Fox crying.  Fox has the doubleheader.  The late game is nice...Rodgers vs. Brady.  But their 2 early games are....yes...the aforementioned, utterly putrid WFT-Giants and Falcons-Vikes...while CBS gets the Browns vs. the Steelers, an early, important game for playoff considerations.  So CBS should have some sweet ratings.

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Sweet day for second guessing.

 

Washington is down 20-13;  they grind out a 75 yard drive to score with about 30 seconds left.  They go for 2...and miss.  Not surprisingly, the onside fails.  

 

Houston is surprising the HECK out of Tennessee, especially after spotting them a big lead.  At 30-29, they take the ball after an interception, and move nicely...6 minutes off the clock, touchdown, inside the 2 minute warning.  Textbook, right?  They elect to go for 2...and miss.  Tennessee shreds a tired Houston defense, first to tie in regulation (borderline touchdown at the end but the replay about whether the receiver got the left toe down wasn't definitive) then take the OT kickoff and slam it into the end zone.  

 

Washington's move was tactically unsound, IMO, based on the opponent.  The Giants were HORRIBLE on offense;  there was no reason to think you had to go for the do-or-die play.  Granted, WFT threw this game away, as bad teams do...TOs and penalties.  And they're not a fundamentally solid offensive football team anyway.

 

Houston's case is more interesting to me.  Rich Gannon was lambasting them for it..."the analytics say kick it!!!!"  Get the 8 point lead.  I don't think I agree.  Go for 2, you get a 9 point lead, less than 2 minutes.  The game should be over;  there shouldn't be enough time to score twice.  Make the kick, it's 8...fine, you force them to go for 2, but it's still 1 score.  Let's assume it's 50-50 to make a 2 point conversion, 95% to make the kick.

 

Go for 2:

Make it:  you win, I'd guess, at least 99% of the time, so you win 50%.

Miss it:  the opponents still have to score the touchdown, and if they go for the kick and make it, it's still, call it 50% you can win in OT.  So you still get 25% or so to win the game *even assuming you give up the touchdown.*

 

Go for 1, and assume you make it.  They have to go for 2, and you're still in the OT situation.  So again assuming you give up the TD, you get 25%.. If you miss (5%), they get the 95% to make their kick, plus the 50% in OT.  So this is like a 3% chance.

So going for 2 should mean about a 75% chance to win;  going for 1...30%.

 

Analytics is easily misused if you don't respect all the applicable conditions.

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Yeah, you never apologize for a win, but by the same token, the Pats are really getting hit by the coronavirus.  3 players out, no practice time to speak of for a while.  They had 1 drive, for the TD, and pulled off a couple trick plays, but otehrwise the offense just wasn't there.

 

Jets...wow.  So bad that Rich Cimini at ESPN commented they weren't tanking for Trevor Lawrence perhaps as for Adam Gase...to get him fired.  And he dropped a truly amazing stat:

 

Quote

Week after week, the Jets showed up unprepared, mentally and physically. They've been outscored in the first half, 114-29 -- utterly astounding.

 

There's no game on the schedule that looks all that good for them;  ok, the Chargers are 1-4, but they're a combined -15.  So they've been in every game.  Otherwise, it's Bills, Chiefs, Pats (well, this could be winnable if they're still getting clobbered by the coronavirus, but ya figure they'll turn that around), Chargers, Dolphins, Raiders, Seahawks, Rams, Browns, Pats.

 

Now, one possibility is a major house cleaning...out with Gase, possibly out with Williams.  (If Gase is out and Williams becomes HC, I have a nasty suspicion things will get WORSE, if that's possible.  Could be I just loath Gregg Williams as a coach, of course.)  

And Joe Flacco is continuing to make John Elway look utterly incompetent...again.

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