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Simon

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  1. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Old Man in Coronavirus   
    With 100k dead (and not seeing the peak yet), I'm curious what you would consider "too much destruction"...
  2. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Lawnmower Boy in Coronavirus   
    With 100k dead (and not seeing the peak yet), I'm curious what you would consider "too much destruction"...
  3. Like
    Simon got a reaction from cycosurgeon in Have any significant improvements been added to Hero Designer in the last few years?   
    Nothing truly earth-shattering, but there have been a large number of updates in that time.

    If you purchased in 2015, then you can download the current version/update already -- just go to the Purchases section of your Client Area and click on the HERO Designer purchase -- the current update is linked at the bottom of that page.
  4. Like
    Simon reacted to jfg17 in Hero Designer (HD) on Apple Mac Desktop or Laptop   
    TY - I have the latest version (Version 8 Update 251), so I'll assume I'm all set!
  5. Thanks
    Simon got a reaction from Panpiper in Have any significant improvements been added to Hero Designer in the last few years?   
    Nothing truly earth-shattering, but there have been a large number of updates in that time.

    If you purchased in 2015, then you can download the current version/update already -- just go to the Purchases section of your Client Area and click on the HERO Designer purchase -- the current update is linked at the bottom of that page.
  6. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Sabene in Should it be a Template or a Prefab?   
    It depends on how you want the Skills to work and how you want the players to purchase them.

    If Custom Skill gives you what you need for the Skills you have in mind, then a prefab is likely the best/easiest way to go.  Similarly, if existing Skills are close and can just be renamed, you can use a prefab for this as well (though the players may get some odd repeat purchase warnings for some).

    If you're after more robust rules logic for your Skills or want to create a more elegant/seamless renaming of existing Skills, then a custom template is going to be the best option.
     
    In terms of purchasing, if you're after a package deal like structure (e.g. "all navigators will have the following Characteristics and Skills"), then you'll want to look at creating templates for each of them (defining the starting character traits for each one).  If you're after more of a "choose 3 of the following Skills" type of purchase, then appropriately named lists within a prefab is your best option.
  7. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Matt the Bruins in Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)   
    I also wonder at the inclusion of Bill Gates in there -- yeah, he's a billionaire...but he and his wife have committed a huge amount of their fortune toward helping others...and I think I read that he's dedicated over 90% of whatever is left to go to charities when he passes.  He's always struck me as the Jimmy Carter of CEOs.
  8. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Hermit in Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)   
    I also wonder at the inclusion of Bill Gates in there -- yeah, he's a billionaire...but he and his wife have committed a huge amount of their fortune toward helping others...and I think I read that he's dedicated over 90% of whatever is left to go to charities when he passes.  He's always struck me as the Jimmy Carter of CEOs.
  9. Haha
    Simon got a reaction from Armory in Coronavirus   
    If you're suggesting that social distancing and self-isolation should be curtailed earlier, then you plan on it getting a lot worse.  That 250k becomes a joke -- you're back into the millions of deaths....and a greater impact on the economy than the shutdown.
  10. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Matt the Bruins in Coronavirus   
    I’d take a cue from the CDC on that - you want to see it trending down for two weeks before -starting- to reopen
  11. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Trencher in Coronavirus   
    My quarantine project (going to take a while to complete): 

     

  12. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Khas in Gifting a PDF   
    You can give the other individual the PDF -- there's no license to speak of that would prevent that.

    You cannot split off part of an order from your account and assign it to another account, so they will not be able to download/re-download the PDF from the site without purchasing it on their own.
  13. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Lord Liaden in Coronavirus   
    Quoting my own post...in a post-necro attempt.  Odd.

    I see a lot of folks debating the validity of reporting out of various areas.  I haven't seen anyone postulating that deaths or cases are being over reported, more under-reported for various political reasons. Which got me to thinking about what we can determine from the numbers that we do have...and they're not good.

    If we go with the reported deaths in the US (even if under-counted), look at the graph of deaths by day (that one that shows the exponential growth).  The area beneath the curve is the total number of deaths.  The exponential growth gave a very sharp rise.  While we've managed to flatten that curve, we haven't reached a plateau yet, much less a decline.  When we do start declining, it's not going to decline at an exponential -- it's going to go down a LOT slower than that initial rise (barring the development of some miracle cure). That dramatically increases the area under the curve before we reach the end of this...and that area is the total number of deaths that we're looking at.
     
    Taking nothing else into account (under-reporting, new variations/complications/etc), if we continue to keep the curve flattened so that we can start to trend downwards (i.e. continue the social distancing and other restrictions), we're likely looking at over 250k in deaths before this is done.
  14. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Old Man in Coronavirus   
    That's why I was referencing deaths -- infections have too many variables. Deaths caused by COVID-19 are (sadly) more straightforward. 
  15. Sad
    Simon got a reaction from TrickstaPriest in Coronavirus   
    That's why I was referencing deaths -- infections have too many variables. Deaths caused by COVID-19 are (sadly) more straightforward. 
  16. Like
    Simon reacted to TrickstaPriest in Coronavirus   
    Dude.  Your project is cooler than mine   I need to do more fun stuff...
     
    I somehow got enrolled in the Stanford Coursera class on machine learning.  Been putting 3 hrs a night into it, then will start a cert soon after I get that done.
     
    I have a recently built server that was for my brother that I want to start crunching some detection on, so I'm back to searching for evil code on github XD
  17. Like
    Simon got a reaction from TrickstaPriest in Coronavirus   
    I’d take a cue from the CDC on that - you want to see it trending down for two weeks before -starting- to reopen
  18. Thanks
    Simon got a reaction from TrickstaPriest in Coronavirus   
    Quoting my own post...in a post-necro attempt.  Odd.

    I see a lot of folks debating the validity of reporting out of various areas.  I haven't seen anyone postulating that deaths or cases are being over reported, more under-reported for various political reasons. Which got me to thinking about what we can determine from the numbers that we do have...and they're not good.

    If we go with the reported deaths in the US (even if under-counted), look at the graph of deaths by day (that one that shows the exponential growth).  The area beneath the curve is the total number of deaths.  The exponential growth gave a very sharp rise.  While we've managed to flatten that curve, we haven't reached a plateau yet, much less a decline.  When we do start declining, it's not going to decline at an exponential -- it's going to go down a LOT slower than that initial rise (barring the development of some miracle cure). That dramatically increases the area under the curve before we reach the end of this...and that area is the total number of deaths that we're looking at.
     
    Taking nothing else into account (under-reporting, new variations/complications/etc), if we continue to keep the curve flattened so that we can start to trend downwards (i.e. continue the social distancing and other restrictions), we're likely looking at over 250k in deaths before this is done.
  19. Like
    Simon reacted to unclevlad in Coronavirus   
    It's also not that clear the data's been flattened.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
     
    Scroll down about halfway, below the state by state numbers, and you'll get to the graphs.  The last 3 weeks in particular...the graphs for daily new deaths show a consistent pattern.  Those particularly short bars?  Sunday.  (May 10, May 3, April 26, April 19...all MUCH shorter.)  Several of the Monday bars are also short.  I seriously doubt there's that much variability in the actual death rates...but it's quite possible there's distinctive delays in reporting.  So, the daily death rates are gonna be very noisy data.  You need to do some longer term work, like moving averages.  

    The CDC has some week-aggregated numbers, but they acknowledge pretty significant lag in reporting.  Turns out that COVID deaths have to be coded manually and that takes, they say, an average of 7 days.  (I can believe it.  A nasty side effect of automation can be that when you are forced off the automated process, the manual one takes MUCH longer than it would have.)  THey're showing drops...but it remains to be seen whether they're real or not.
     
    So...yeah.  250K deaths doesn't seem outlandish.
  20. Thanks
    Simon got a reaction from Sketchpad in Expanded Skills Rules   
    Under 5E, just make sure you have TUS selected as an available template in the application preferences.

    Under 6E you can either create a custom rules template or manually add the appropriate category/sub-category to the skill as an Adder -- the Skill cost structure will change appropriately when you do so.
  21. Thanks
    Simon got a reaction from Spence in Expanded Skills Rules   
    Under 5E, just make sure you have TUS selected as an available template in the application preferences.

    Under 6E you can either create a custom rules template or manually add the appropriate category/sub-category to the skill as an Adder -- the Skill cost structure will change appropriately when you do so.
  22. Like
    Simon reacted to Lord Liaden in Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)   
    I want to compliment my fellow forumites on holding a measured, respectful, intelligent debate on these issues, allowing contrary viewpoints to be expressed and countering them with reasonable arguments. This is as rare as hen's teeth on the Internet, and a testament to the quality of the community we've built here.
  23. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Tom Cowan in Multipower   
    If you start creating Powers right after creating the MP, they'll be added to it by default.  You can move Powers into or out of an MP (or any other list) by selecting the Power and using the up and down arrows at the bottom of the panel.
  24. Like
    Simon got a reaction from Monitor in Multipower   
    If you start creating Powers right after creating the MP, they'll be added to it by default.  You can move Powers into or out of an MP (or any other list) by selecting the Power and using the up and down arrows at the bottom of the panel.
  25. Like
    Simon got a reaction from TrickstaPriest in Coronavirus   
    I've been doing the exact same with my chiro -- they're still open, but I'm not in any dire need.  Heck, with the forge closed down I'm doing pretty well of late.

    They still keep checking every 2 weeks, which is nice of them, but I keep pushing them out until I either _really_ need it or our stay at home orders are relaxed.
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