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Vurbal

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Posts posted by Vurbal

  1. I'll admit, I relaxed slightly when the news seemed to indicate that the North Koreans were likely to go for an underground nuke test rather than a missile launch.

     

    Then I saw this afternoon we decided to (very publically) use a MOAB in Afganistan.

     

    When it comes to saber rattling this administration is about as far from 'subtle' as you can get.

     

    Now, are we crazy/stupid enough to try and pre-empt a nuke test by dropping another MOAB?  Or do we honestly think Kim will call off Grandpa's (presumed) nuclear b-day present just because Trump decided to act all threatening at him?

     

    Or are both sides just posturing at each other.

     

    I probably won't get out of needing to go to work Monday regardless unless things spiral out of control in a truly spectacular fashion.

     

    That's the big danger with saber rattling -- you might accidentally draw the blade and cut someone...

     

    As much as I agree with all of that, I'm not even sure that's the biggest danger here. There are some very good documentary shows from Britain that got added to Netflix a few months back which go into a lot of interesting detail about the run up to WW II. One of them focuses on the role that the growing pains of democracy played. The way over simplified version comes down to a discussion of the tension between making the world safe for democracy vs making democracy safe for the world.

     

    Despite the significant differences, there are striking similarities between post WW II Europe and the modern day Middle East. I'm not saying that WW III is right around the corner, or even inevitable, but the ingredients are pretty clearly there, and the last thing we should be doing is just kicking the hornet's nest and then walking away - especially given the proximity of Russia, both geographically and politically.

  2. Putin must be having severe buyer's remorse by now. Trump is too emotional and unpredictable for foreign governments to trust his word, and the Syria incidents (I don't know that it's a full-fledged crisis yet) are trying even normal ties between the US and Russia.

     

    The Russians thought that Trump would give them a free hand in Syria, and he did for a while, but then they went too far. The gas attack wasn't just obscene -- it was also stupid. It was virtually guaranteed to produce an emotional response from other governments at a time when the Russians and Assad did not need outside scrutiny. Whether the Russians initiated the attack or simply failed to remind their "ally" of the possible consequences is unclear. Now everyone is wondering what compelled the Russians not to seek another leader in Syria who would do the same things for them Assad did without the baggage that comes with his brutality.

    I wouldn't be too quick to look at Putin's actions as being either unexpected or miscalculated. What I suspect he's doing, what I expected from the moment Trump won the election, is following the same playbook Kruschev used against Kennedy. While Trump is obviously no JFK (if you're comparing him to the myth, neither was JFK), but like Kennedy, he's an inexperienced outsider who only trusted advisors are equally inexperienced and ignorant.

     

    I predict this is just the opening shot, and we're going to see more naked aggression from Russia in the coming months and years. Trump already failed the first test, and his chances aren't looking good for whatever comes next.

  3. I don't think he'll do anything dangerously stupid that he hasn't already.  Keep in mind that Putin owns Trump, having bought him for an 0.5% share of Rosneft.  Trump, Manafort, and Carter Page have been working with Russian oligarchs and oil tycoons for decades.  The Russian mafia ran a money laundering operation right out of Trump Tower ffs.  Putin also probably has plenty of kompromat on Trump.  The good news out of all that is that Trump is really unlikely to provoke Putin into doing anything other than spike Trump's coffee with polonium.  Ukraine and the Baltics are Putin's if he wants them though.

     

    Here is an in-depth article about Trump aides' Russia-Ukraine oil and money laundering schemes over the past fifteen years.  Warning: long read, and it may make you feel a little queasy.

    Sure, but he's not exactly known for letting pragmatism get in the way of his ego. Or let anything get in between his ego and his mouth, for that matter. He has no experience in the real world, where words and actions can have consequences that all the lawyers in the world can't litigate away.

  4. My concern is that he'll do nothing about Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Baltics and the Balkans.

    I don't worry that he'll do nothing. I'm more worried he'll do something dangerously stupid.

     

    But, yeah, this is the real problem IMO. Putin is a world class player at global brinksmanship. Trump can't even manage to negotiate with his own party -  keep his own top secret documents behind closed doors for that matter. Putin is playing chess and Trump is still trying to wrap his head around tic tac toe.

  5. So let me understand this as a foreigner. Trump plans to repeal Obamacare. He puts a plan to Congress and although he has enough Republican Congress and Senate voters it is they who won't back the bill ?

    Well not exactly. You forgot about the part where he publicly admitted that saving face (which he didn't) was more important than the American people.

     

    So far I'm not sure if Trump reminds me more of Chevy Chase doing Weekend Update on SNL (I'm the president and you're not) or Eric Cartman.

     

    image.jpg?w=800&c=1

  6. But the money won't even be saved. The cost of health insurance and healthcare will go up as the customer pool shrinks. The CBO analysis shows that this plan will leave Americans worse off than they were before Obamacare.

    Right. Money will be saved by the government, as if that were a separate entity with its own independent income. Any time you hear somebody talking about how "the government" with benefit, you can be sure that means the people are paying for it. If it was good for the people, they would say that instead.

  7. And the Osweiller trade just gets stranger, and may actually be one of the most ingenious trades ever made. It seems Cleveland never intended to keep Osweiller. They supposedly never intended to keep Osweiller and plan to either trade or cut him. That would obviously leave them on the hook for any remaining guaranteed salary.

     

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/03/09/browns-will-trade-or-cut-brock-osweiler/

     

    So basically, they bought 2nd and 6th round draft picks for whatever part of Osweiller's salary they're stuck with. The 4th rounder they sent back was change or maybe a tip. Either way, they figured out a way to buy a second round draft pick, and that's no small feat. It's also probably irrelevant, given that it is the Browns we're talking about, but it was still a creative idea.

  8. Les Leopoldo: "Republicans now control 32 state legislatures and 33 governorships. They have majorities in both state legislative chambers as well as the governorships in 25 states. The Democrats have total control in only six states and legislative control in two more.

     

    "If Republicans achieve veto-proof control in 38 states, they can do something that has never been done before—hold a constitutional convention, and then ratify new amendments that are put forth. To date, all amendments have been initiated from Congress where two-thirds of both houses are required. In either case, 38 states would be needed to ratify the amendments. The Republicans are well on their way."

     

    https://zcomm.org/znetarticle/why-we-could-be-on-the-verge-of-a-constitutional-apocalypse/

     

    Meanwhile, the Arizona Senate has just passed a bill that would allow the police to seize your assets if you are part of a protest that turns violent. So, if you show up at a town hall meeting and an agent provocateur throws a brick, you could lose the car you drove there in. If you helped organize the protest you could lose your house. Expect similar legislation to sweep through Republican-held legislatures across the country. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-arizona-legislation-idUSKBN1622LB

    I'm actually thrilled about this, strangely enough. It's about time we had a serious spotlight pointed at the blatantly unconstitutional mess which is asset forfeiture.This honestly isn't all that different from the government seizing property from supposed drug dealers as a way to boost budgets, get free toys, and pretend to be tough on crime - without a single charge being filed, let alone proven in court.

  9. I don't supposed this is really related to nothing on this thread, but in the interest of not polluting the forum, I'll post it here.

     

    I took my wife to a very nice restaurant on Valentine's Day, and just before we were done eating, she said she could see me start scowling because our governor, and Trump's nominee for ambassador to China, Terry Branstad walked by. He was still in the lobby when we left, but I ignored him since I knew my wife would be embarrassed if I said something nasty to him on the way out.

     

    I'm glad she was there, because anything I would have said almost certainly would have been a cheap shot, I like to think I'm better than that.

     

    Sometimes I'm not.

  10. The bass line for Something, by the Beatles. This is, in my opinion, Paul McCartney's masterpiece on bass, and I have put off learning it for years because I knew it would be time consuming. Now I have to learn it, and it's easier than I thought. The trick, it turns out, was avoiding the regular mix of the song and just listening to the bass by itself until everyone else in the house is ready to kill me. By 2 in the afternoon on Saturday I predict my wife will be asking me if I'm done practicing, and pointing out that I've been playing the same half a song for almost 4 hours.

     

    And that's what I do for fun...

     

  11. Indeed. Going in with a hit squad over a failure to have / maintain a business license is ridiculous. They only did that there because it was a pot joint and they really needed everyone out before they could start stealing the pot and jerking around while on the clock. 

     

    La Rose. 

     

    Exactly. The rationalization for busting down doors instead of knocking (or just walking through the door in a public place), is pretty much always preservation of evidence, with the occasional officer safety BS thrown in. In this case, there was no evidence involved.

  12. I came across this gem of a story a bit ago: LA cops raid a pot dispencery, Jack the cameras, proceed to eat the products and play around while making offensive jokes. So, where in the police manual does it say "jack the cameras after clearing out everyone in a raid"? And what are the chances that any video they did get was destroyed minus the camera they left up? Every single one of those cops should be fired, arrested, and thrown in jail. 

     

    La Rose. 

     

    Actually, it's worse than that. They were apparently only there to deliver a couple citations.

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